February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

Seen this Euro bait and hook setup many a time since October. Not taking the bait anymore until we are 3 or 4 days out. Enjoy yourselves.

[Maestrobjwa]

So if I'm understanding you guys correctly, this may be the last think we have to even keep an eye on until.....? I mean is there any possibility for the second half of Feb.?

[psuhoffman]

The skepticism is valid but consider this threat has way more ensemble support from both the EPS and gefs then any of those ghosts on the day 10 euro op did. Again it's still a long ways out and low prob but it's probably got a bit more of a chance then those other completely rougue runs did. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It's really day 8.  Today is almost over and Mondays suck so it can be eliminated.  We would be tracking it hard by Thursday so it's closer than you might think.

maybe its really day 6 since nobody works on the weekends

[BristowWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So if I'm understanding you guys correctly, this may be the last think we have to even keep an eye on until.....? I mean is there any possibility for the second half of Feb.?

No way to really say that with confidence.  Today looks better than yesterday.  Who knows where we will be in two weeks...either dancing on the ceiling or hanging from it

[Interstate]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The skepticism is valid but consider this threat has way more ensemble support from both the EPS and gefs then any of those ghosts on the day 10 euro op did. Again it's still a long ways out and low prob but it's probably got a bit more of a chance then those other completely rougue runs did. 

and that ensemble support can flip just as fast the OP.  We have seen that many times this year as well.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So if I'm understanding you guys correctly, this may be the last think we have to even keep an eye on until.....? I mean is there any possibility for the second half of Feb.?

The period makes sense in the big picture because like I mentioned earlier about the nao ridge relaxing. We have had many events over the years with that progression. It's obviously not that simple but it's a common way for things to work out. The euro op actually keeps the ridging going this time so there is some weak blocking in place and pops a big ridge behind the vort. That's another good way for our area. We just have to wait and see. None of this will matter if the timing sucks. 

The euro op is a big snowstorm. And it will likely be gone in 12 hours. But that doesn't take away from the period being overall pretty decent for something to happen around here. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The skepticism is valid but consider this threat has way more ensemble support from both the EPS and gefs then any of those ghosts on the day 10 euro op did. Again it's still a long ways out and low prob but it's probably got a bit more of a chance then those other completely rougue runs did. 

I'm willing to bet money that this event won't get past Day 8.  So basically, it won't be there on Sunday.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The period makes sense in the big picture because like I mentioned earlier about the nao ridge relaxing. We have had many events over the years with that progression. It's obviously not that simple but it's a common way for things to work out. The euro op actually keeps the ridging going this time so there is some weak blocking in place and pops a big ridge behind the vort. That's another good way for our area. We just have to wait and see. None of this will matter if the timing sucks. 

The euro op is a big snowstorm. And it will likely be gone in 12 hours. But that doesn't take away from the period being overall pretty decent for something to happen around here. 

Gotta love the fact that the cutter is gone for now.  How often does that happen.  Usually starts to cut a bit and then before you know it the OH valley is worried about temps

[PaEasternWX]

I am really sorry to be a party pooper but couldn’t todays 12z run really just be a trend to the suppressed look on the 12z GFS. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm willing to bet money that this event won't get past Day 8.  So basically, it won't be there on Sunday.  

The only reason I kinda disagree this time is all the previous times were predicated on some sort of -nao forming out in time and producing something. The -nao isn't a big red sun or anything but it's there by d4 on all op and ens guidance. This particular time we will almost surely have a block of some sort leading into to whichever shortwave may or may not affect our area. 

[MD Snow]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

I am really sorry to be a party pooper but couldn’t todays 12z run really just be a trend to the suppressed look on the 12z GFS. Im sorry to say but....

Everything is still on the table IMO, including it dissappearing. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said:

I am really sorry to be a party pooper but couldn’t todays 12z run really just be a trend to the suppressed look on the 12z GFS. Im sorry to say but....

Yes

[Bob Chill]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

I am really sorry to be a party pooper but couldn’t todays 12z run really just be a trend to the suppressed look on the 12z GFS. 

If you're making decisions about d8-10 threats using op models then you are using the wrong tools. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

has a nice low pressuere system building into the great lakes too!

 

It's not ideal but that low is too little too late. It's building in behind the storm. That timing could change and it becomes a problem but by that frame  you already have 6-10" of snow and it's still snowing. The damage has been done. There is a high in the way that holds long enough up get it done. But the timing of the system and high are something to watch in future runs. This is the more important frame. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The only reason I kinda disagree this time is all the previous times were predicated on some sort of -nao forming out in time and producing something. The -nao isn't a big red sun or anything but it's there by d4 on all op and ens guidance. This particular time we will almost surely have a block of some sort leading into to whichever shortwave may or may not affect our area. 

Poor Bob.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

and that ensemble support can flip just as fast the OP.  We have seen that many times this year as well.

That's why it's still low prob. But low prob like 10% when those other solutions were like 1% imo. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Poor Bob.  

Nah, if nothing happens then it is what it is. Just pointing out that some of the ingredients we need for something to work move into place during the short/med range. That alone will keep me interested until nothing happens then I'll go back to playing xbox and eating potato chips. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, if nothing happens then it is what it is. Just pointing out that some of the ingredients we need for something to work move into place during the short/med range. That alone will keep me interested until nothing happens then I'll go back to playing xbox and eating potato chips. 

Your sexy self must be getting fat the way this winter is going.

[PaEasternWX]

By Monday if there is something real with ensemble support then it is time to start to at least take it a little seriously. I know not all situations are the same but from the blizzard last year pretty much all models were locked in from d7. Looking at teles, epo looks negative. And the wpo looks negative. So that is a plus. But the pna is negative and the nao is positive. Not sure about the ao.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, if nothing happens then it is what it is. Just pointing out that some of the ingredients we need for something to work move into place during the short/med range. That alone will keep me interested until nothing happens then I'll go back to playing xbox and eating potato chips. 

That better be some good games being played on that xbox...

And if we could only lock up hr 234 and 240

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Gotta love the fact that the cutter is gone for now.  How often does that happen.  Usually starts to cut a bit and then before you know it the OH valley is worried about temps

I showed yesterday how the upper pattern actually could support a better trend. As bob keeps pointing out while it's transient we do actually get nao blocking this time. Probably only last 4-5 days but that's all we need to get one threat window. Now we need luck too. The blocking displacing the PV argues for a south track not a cutter. We have some things in place this time we have lacked all winter. 

Could things trend the wrong way sure. Blocking could break down faster. System could stall out west too long and we lose the setup before it comes out. This is still a long ways out. But the setup is sound and a classic way we get snow and the pattern that leads to it gets in motion soon enough to believe it may be real. I'm not saying this is it. We're getting snow. But this might be our best overall setup of the winter so far. That's not saying much.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's why it's still low prob. But low prob like 10% when those other solutions were like 1% imo. 

There was a cluster of lows on the 12z gefs that looked nearly identical to what the euro just spit out. I'm not saying I think this is some perfect or high prob window or anything. But those quick to dismiss are using recency bias instead of discussing what models are actually showing. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There was a cluster of lows on the 12z gefs that looked nearly identical to what the euro just spit out. I'm not saying I think this is some perfect or high prob window or anything. But those quick to dismiss are using recency bias instead of discussing what models are actually showing. 

I'm with you 100% but it's going to be a tough sell with this crowd right now. Lol

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm with you 100% but it's going to be a tough sell with this crowd right now. Lol

I am so jaded right now I would probably be one of the ones in the front waving my pitchfork and torch. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm with you 100% but it's going to be a tough sell with this crowd right now. Lol

Heh, I don't want to sell anything. Just looking for intelligent conversation now that there is something actually worth having an intelligent conversation over again. For all we know a vort can slip into the flow in between the dry clipper and fantasy d10 snow bomb. The next 10+ days are discussion worthy. The longest period of favorable ingredients we've had all season by quite a margin. I just want to get a full inch of snow out of one event. There's my bar. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm with you 100% but it's going to be a tough sell with this crowd right now. Lol

#FaithInTheDay10Euro

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, if nothing happens then it is what it is. Just pointing out that some of the ingredients we need for something to work move into place during the short/med range. That alone will keep me interested until nothing happens then I'll go back to playing xbox and eating potato chips. 

Nobody really gave specifics, but Matt just texted me the  face, so it must be legit good.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nobody really gave specifics, but Matt just texted me the  face, so it must be legit good.

It's a moisture laden crushing. 6" otg @ hr240 and it's probably not even half over. No temp issues. But we all know in 12 hours it's gone. But what about 120 hours from now? heh

You have to admit, for op models @ d8 range, this is pretty unusual...

GFS:

 

 

Euro:

 

 

 

CMC:

 

Even the JMA:

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

By Monday if there is something real with ensemble support then it is time to start to at least take it a little seriously. I know not all situations are the same but from the blizzard last year pretty much all models were locked in from d7. Looking at teles, epo looks negative. And the wpo looks negative. So that is a plus. But the pna is negative and the nao is positive. Not sure about the ao.

You're not paying attention.

For the Jan 7 system, the GFS hammered us on it's 120 hour forecast.  Didn't work out that way.

Now as far as this system goes, I think it looks decent that there will be a system of some sort since both have it, but what it is certainly is not likely to be decided by day 7.