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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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  On 1/29/2017 at 8:40 PM, showmethesnow said:

Even a stronger signal for a significant storm around day 11 on the EPS. 

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Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 850/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20

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  On 1/29/2017 at 8:53 PM, mitchnick said:

Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 840/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20

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Just talking storm in general details to be worked out later. 

 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. 

IMG_0411.PNG

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Can we really trust any good look we see LR anymore? I mean every single one evaporates? What makes this LR any more reliable? Not even the overall trends on the LR have had any kind of consistency! Everyday it looks dramatically different, it seems like, lol

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  On 1/29/2017 at 8:53 PM, mitchnick said:

Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 840/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20

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The progression you see after 240 hrs drives that low through our region and then looks to set up a strong low off the Del/Jersey coasts then semi stalls it for roughly a day and a half +. My impression is we may be talking a Miller B setup. Wish I could show the map with the individual ensemble members because it is quite impressive the number that buy into this general solution for a day 11 threat. Also the mean pressures are somewhat impressive as well with such a long lead. As far as snow/no snow? Who knows but there are definitely possibilities.

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  On 1/29/2017 at 9:10 PM, showmethesnow said:

The progression you see after 240 hrs drives that low through our region and then looks to set up a strong low off the Del/Jersey coasts then semi stalls it for roughly a day and a half +. My impression is we may be talking a Miller B setup. Wish I could show the map with the individual ensemble members because it is quite impressive the number that buy into this general solution for a day 11 threat. Also the mean pressures are somewhat impressive as well with such a long lead. As far as snow/no snow? Who knows but there are definitely possibilities.

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Agreed. Look at the low positions for that window. Quite a few right where you'd want them. 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 9:04 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Can we really trust any good look we see LR anymore? I mean every single one evaporates? What makes this LR any more reliable? Not even the overall trends on the LR have had any kind of consistency! Everyday it looks dramatically different, it seems like, lol

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Trust that there is a threat yes. That doesn't mean it hits. A threat might mean we have a 30% chance at a big storm. It usually takes several threats to get one hit. The day 7 threat isn't gone. Still support for something possible there. Possible is the key. It was never a lock. Some guidance has it some says no but the general look of a threat window is there. The specifics have to break right to turn a threat into an actual snowstorm. I know this year sucks but I honestly don't get the notion that the models have been so unreliable. The problem is we haven't had many threats. Only 2. The mid December one that ended up ice. And the January one that missed southeast. Other then that at times models suggested perhaps a better look way out that never materialized but no big busts. This better pattern is already in place. We have several legit threats coming up. The trough looks to go through its greatest amplification around day 11-12 on all the guidance. So there is a threat there. That doesn't mean the models are saying it will snow. Just there is a good window of opportunity. Looking at day 10 output and thinking that has to happen exactly or it's a bust is the wrong way to use the guidance and gives the perception the models suck because their being misused. 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 8:53 PM, mitchnick said:

Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 850/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20

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That map is totally off...or wxBell is.

WxBell has 850's here at -11c at the same time. WxBell has the 0c line running through the middle of Tennessee and just north of the Va/NC border.

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  On 1/29/2017 at 8:40 PM, showmethesnow said:

Even a stronger signal for a significant storm around day 11 on the EPS. 

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You know I'm right with you. I started mentioning this window was the best look a couple days ago when the now day 7 storm looked good too. I'm not saying that is over or not a threat. Just looking at all the guidance there is a very strong signal for a major amplication of the trough into the east around day 11 and there should be enough cold around. Those two ingredients make it a good threat window. It's been there for days, it's moving closer in time, and it's trending stronger each day.  And yes it's way out but we aren't relying on a new pattern developing this time it's based on a very natural progression of the current pattern (which ain't too bad if we haven't noticed). But until it snows at least a bit we're talking to a pretty jaded and fatalistic audience right now. I totally understand that. But all I can do is analyze the pattern and the recency bias doesn't change the long range look is hella good. 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 9:26 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map is totally off...or wxBell is.

WxBell has 850's here at -11c at the same time. WxBell has the 0c line running through the middle of Tennessee and just north of the Va/NC border.

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You sure you guys are looking at the same timeframe? The WxBell EPS Mean 240h 850T map matches the link Mitch posted as far as I can tell... 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 9:31 PM, psuhoffman said:

You know I'm right with you. I started mentioning this window was the best look a couple days ago when the now day 7 storm looked good too. I'm not saying that is over or not a threat. Just looking at all the guidance there is a very strong signal for a major amplication of the trough into the east around day 11 and there should be enough cold around. Those two ingredients make it a good threat window. It's been there for days, it's moving closer in time, and it's trending stronger each day.  And yes it's way out but we aren't relying on a new pattern developing this time it's based on a very natural progression of the current pattern (which ain't too bad if we haven't noticed). But until it snows at least a bit we're talking to a pretty jaded and fatalistic audience right now. I totally understand that. But all I can do is analyze the pattern and the recency bias doesn't change the long range look is hella good. 

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Yeah, you been onto this 2'nd threat for awhile. Remember you mention the possibility when I brought up the thoughts of a second impulse showing up on the ESP even though it was well hidden. Think that was 4 days ago on one of my early morning novels on the late night runs. Started really buying into it over subsequent runs but what really drove it home was some of the reasoning you put forth a couple of days ago. Much of it matched my thoughts but you also had some very valid points that I had never considered. (see I do read you stuff :) ).

 

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Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. 

Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher. 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 10:31 PM, Bob Chill said:

Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. 

Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher

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Torture! Don't say torch...PLEASE, lol

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  On 1/29/2017 at 10:49 PM, mitchnick said:

What kind of jump, if any, in the ensemble mean snowfall results? 

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It's pretty muddy but the eps has a cluster of about 10 members that produce during the general time frame. Which is about the same # as the d7'ish threat. Probably the only discouraging thing is that not very many show a big event (6"+) for either. Around 6 or so total. Still seems like the odds of a 2"+ event look ok though. We should have plenty of stuff to keep an eye on over the next week. 

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