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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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  On 1/29/2017 at 6:21 PM, BTRWx said:

What amazes me is the teleconnections magnitudes haven't looked all that favorable. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

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I personally feel like one of the issues with this winter (with repspect to snowfall) is our source region for cold (Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec) have had relatively strong positive departures. That makes it pretty hard for any cold to push far enough south. And when it does it has been modified cold which more times then not makes for PType issues for mid-Atlantic. Not to mention the boundry is typically not in an ideal spot for our small-medium events. 

One positive I see in general is the ridge out west seems to be reloading somewhat through most guidance. That's way better then the tough for first half the winter that was crushing the inter-mountain west with cold/snow in Dec.

 

 

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  On 1/29/2017 at 6:54 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nope

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It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. 

IMG_0411.PNG

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. 

IMG_0411.PNG

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the ssw signal! Jb posted the 10mb map for the week following the ssw for the time the surface would respond. :)

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. 

IMG_0411.PNG

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Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=278

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. 

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I just commented on the day 10... AS modeled.  That's the key.  I'm sure it's modeled solution is entirely possible ... as modeled.  I'm sure the gfs solution is plausible as well.

Too far out in time.  The euro tries to run a little system through here on Wed that the gfs doesn't have.  They both have a system to our South on Thurs/Fri.  I think I'll wait and see how those shake out first.

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:10 PM, mitchnick said:

Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=192&xpos=114&ypos=129

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That high and those heights don't support warmth.  850's at day 10 are frigid.

Edit: reference the 12z euro

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  On 1/29/2017 at 7:10 PM, mitchnick said:

Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=114&ypos=129

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Your looking at the old run. New run is plenty cold day 10. 

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