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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 9:52 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS was not great. All the the nicely positioned positive heights up top, suddenly went over the top lol. Cold retreats northward towards the end of the run.

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EPS was a conflicted run. Snowiest run in a long time. Most of it centered on the day 10 threat. The mean there is useless as it's a 50/50 split between runs that cut way way west. Like west of Chicago. And runs that take a southern track along a colder boundary. Seems the euro is split on the blocking and its suppression of the flow. I found 24 in the west cuter camp and 28 in the south track. Not all of them snow there are 8 that suppres the storm south or shear it to nothing. 20 decent snows in our area from that threat. That's a pretty good signal at day 10.

After that the run goes to crap fast. The blocking breaks down, the PV slides back up and ridging develops across the conus under it. However there is another tick up in snow day 14-15 and a few heavy hitters and the ridging is muted so there must be a divergent camp within the members. The EPS has been bouncing around a lot lately from some great looks to some bad ones and back again. My confidence in anything, even general trends, past 10 days is near 0 right now. 

Beyond models there are conflicting signals. It's not shocking the euro and gefs diverge given they have some drastically different mjo forecasts. Gefs keeps it in the circle of death before spiking late towards better phases while the euro takes it into the tour of warm phases. So seeing the euro move towards a warm look isn't shocking but the question is which guidance package is gutting that. Mjo has been pretty weak all year and the latest spike in phase 8/1 did nothing to help us much so I have no read on that. Still not sure what if any impact the strat warming is going to have but I would have expected to start seeing signs of it in guidance by now so my hopes for much help there are fading. Who knows maybe it is helping and the half decent pattern coming is just the best we can do this year given the qbo and awful base state of the pacific. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 10:14 PM, psuhoffman said:

EPS was a conflicted run. Snowiest run in a long time. Most of it centered on the day 10 threat. The mean there is useless as it's a 50/50 split between runs that cut way way west. Like west of Chicago. And runs that take a southern track along a colder boundary. Seems the euro is split on the blocking and its suppression of the flow. I found 24 in the west cuter camp and 28 in the south track. Not all of them snow there are 8 that suppres the storm south or shear it to nothing. 20 decent snows in our area from that threat. That's a pretty good signal at day 10.

After that the run goes to crap fast. The blocking breaks down, the PV slides back up and ridging develops across the conus under it. However there is another tick up in snow day 14-15 and a few heavy hitters and the ridging is muted so there must be a divergent camp within the members. The EPS has been bouncing around a lot lately from some great looks to some bad ones and back again. My confidence in anything, even general trends, past 10 days is near 0 right now. 

Beyond models there are conflicting signals. It's not shocking the euro and gefs diverge given they have some drastically different mjo forecasts. Gefs keeps it in the circle of death before spiking late towards better phases while the euro takes it into the tour of warm phases. So seeing the euro move towards a warm look isn't shocking but the question is which guidance package is gutting that. Mjo has been pretty weak all year and the latest spike in phase 8/1 did nothing to help us much so I have no read on that. Still not sure what if any impact the strat warming is going to have but I would have expected to start seeing signs of it in guidance by now so my hopes for much help there are fading. Who knows maybe it is helping and the half decent pattern coming is just the best we can do this year given the qbo and awful base state of the pacific. 

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I think most likely we will just luck into something with a briefly favorable look. Sort of how the suppressed storm occurred in early Jan. I am done with the idea that we see a legit -AO or NAO; most likely just transient +heights in those domains. And especially after the vanishing act the EPS pulled today lol.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 9:24 PM, yoda said:

2-3 inches?  Hmmm... guess I didn't look as close as I should have

ETA:  Ah... its from January 31st 12z to Feb 5th 12z time period... so 12z TUES is the starting time on Maue's map he posted

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Perhaps Cohen's tweet should have read "thinking we have a -AO this winter?  The SAI theory says YES fuggetaboutit!"

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 10:42 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody notice the trend for Wed?  0z had the -10 850 to my south.  3 runs later it has inched its way to Detroit.

Grain of salt on these models at range, if 5-6 days can be called at range.

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I'm beginning to think it's over (before it started). We can't even get a snowstorm to pop up in the long run, not that it would verify anyway. I can't recall going this long without seeing a real snow threat. I know it's hard to ignore last years blizzard but without that, this will make two winters in a row that were basically snowless in and around the cities.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 10:48 PM, Wonderdog said:

I'm beginning to think it's over (before it started). We can't even get a snowstorm to pop up in the long run, not that it would verify anyway. I can't recall going this long without seeing a real snow threat. I know it's hard to ignore last years blizzard but without that, this will make two winters in a row that were basically snowless in and around the cities.

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I was just thinking that.  It's the op run but there isn't even a dusting.  The cold all but vanishes.  Really blow away by the level of suckage.  

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 11:27 PM, psuhoffman said:

Bad run of the weeklies incoming. The panels aren't out yet but the tellevonnections update first and they all look like crap. +AO nao throughout and unfavorable pacific most of the time too

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Not exactly sure how the weeklies are much different that the CFSv2.

Ive caught many trout that flop less.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 11:32 PM, psuhoffman said:

Ok they updates. It's bad. Ugly ugly ugly bad. Pretty much winters over after day 18 but it's worse because today's euro flipped to it sooner around day 12.  Then it's positive AO and conus torch the rest of winter. 

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Thanks for everything you did this winter.  All the analysis and model interpretation.  It gave us hope when there wasn't any.  Maybe next year will be better.  Now I must get in shape for early spring. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 11:52 PM, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the gefs made a jump towards the EPS in the long range. And it trended worse with the day 10 too. More ridging and less blocking to keep things south. Really bad afternoon and evening of runs today. 

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This sunday-monday clipper needs to get its ass in gear.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2017 at 11:52 PM, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the gefs made a jump towards the EPS in the long range. And it trended worse with the day 10 too. More ridging and less blocking to keep things south. Really bad afternoon and evening of runs today. 

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It has been slowly losing the -AO for a few runs now. Then we got the vanishing act from the EPS run today. And now this rather hideous weeklies run. Lol good thing I was in the mood to drink tonight. Pitchers and catchers!

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