North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Go. Because, it can always get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Mods can we please pin this and close the other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Maybe we'll get lucky and get a torch spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 TOO EARLY! I refuse to believe we wasted an entire month of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: TOO EARLY! I refuse to believe we wasted an entire month of winter. You prefer alternative facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Nope it just this winter has been so much of a disaster it is hard to believe its reality but it obviously is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Today's runs are vomit in the long range. If the Alaska block retrogrades into Siberea, We're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 do these things EVER verify or are they just purdy to look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You prefer alternative facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You prefer alternative facts LOL Nice one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: do these things EVER verify or are they just purdy to look at? wont verify...no way no how... but I can give you one guess who might use this as weather propaganda on twitter. First initial J... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: wont verify...no way no how... but I can give you one guess who might use this as weather propaganda on twitter. First initial J... ...B put out these maps in late November for the month of Dec. Looked similar. That worked out well right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: wont verify...no way no how... but I can give you one guess who might use this as weather propaganda on twitter. First initial J... Yea it's amazing how flawed that output is. Even in a bad run it will typically show an average of 12" over 45 days in the winter and good runs show 40. If those things were right we would average 75" a year. Almost like he programmed them himself. Every time someone in Canada sneezes facing south we get a foot of snow. Somehow even in our best years it still over predicts snow. Kinda like someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 So, philosophical question.....why is public money being spent on such a useless product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: the real threat is what its ejecting from the west day 10. If that high over the lakes gets locked in behind the PV lobe over eastern Canada that could be a threat. The boundary is starting off far enough south to keep us in play if the system doesn't amp too much. Its coming out pretty deep so the threat is definitely a cutter over suppressed IMO but the cold is in place and its not racing out like in past setups and we have some lower heights to our northeast instead of that crap WAR that has allowed our highs to race off to the east before. Its doable. Yeah, I saw that, but I just can't muster any energy for something at that range. If it gets to 7, I'll be all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So, philosophical question.....why is public money being spent on such a useless product? IMHO- snowfall output was never the intent of any long range model and having that output is just a novelty and far from a tool. Long range climate models are meant to basically predict general AN/BN temps and precip in a very general sense over a long period of time. I can almost guarantee that anyone who works at CPC or any other climate prediction company pays no attention to output like that. Media based long range prediction companies will use anything to sensationalize weather. I fault mets on FB or wxbell or wherever that kind of stuff is posted for public view. It's misleading and dumb but anyone who competes for clicks/views/votes whatever will do anything and everything to win a popularity contest and not a sound prediction contest. Good long range forecasts are boring as hell. Just like the CPC long lead temp and precip probability maps....boooooring....but true to the fact that we can't predict anything at monthly leads other than general probabilities. That stuff doesn't sell though so gotta dig up juice elsewhere and pimp it out like a whore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, I saw that, but I just can't muster any energy for something at that range. If it gets to 7, I'll be all in. Philosophical answer, the problem isn't usually what the government is doing but how crappy they are doing it. And the fault is usually not with the civil servant working diligently but with crappy politics at the top of the decision making process leaving them executing a flawed action plan. Probably they realize it's flawed but constant bickering over what to do and fund has left them incapable of either fixing or terminating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: IMHO- snowfall output was never the intent of any long range model and having that output is just a novelty and far from a tool. Long range climate models are meant to basically predict general AN/BN temps and precip in a very general sense over a long period of time. I can almost guarantee that anyone who works at CPC or any other climate prediction company pays no attention to output like that. Totally agree but it's pretty flawed in those more critical outputs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Totally agree but it's pretty flawed in those more critical outputs also. It does a good job late month for the following month. I'll give credit where credit is due. Beyond that, just stick with the euro products and accept that long range accuracy is still a few decades away from being accurate enough to provide true value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So, philosophical question.....why is public money being spent on such a useless product? Mitch threatened to firebomb NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You prefer alternative facts I cant tell if that is a jab at trump or kelly conway who came up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does a good job late month for the following month. I'll give credit where credit is due. Beyond that, just stick with the euro products and accept that long range accuracy is still a few decades away from being accurate enough to provide true value. Very reasonable. So should we be excited the cfs has locked in on a cold blocky look the last several days or are we still not at the late month period you refer too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 We are in the game. Next month is going to be very fun. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Mitch threatened to firebomb NCEP Your on a heater today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Your on a heater today 64 degrees on Jan 25th.. you bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: I cant tell if that is a jab at trump or kelly conway who came up with it. All of the above. It reminds me of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: We are in the game. Next month is going to be very fun. Good times. The EPS would like a word with you...offline of course. Not sure if anyone thought it would be this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jebman said: We are in the game. Next month is going to be very fun. Good times. This is all i need. Jebman will carry us to snow heaven. #SNOWTOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very reasonable. So should we be excited the cfs has locked in on a cold blocky look the last several days or are we still not at the late month period you refer too? I mostly just look at the last 5-7 runs of the month and see if they are *relatively* consistent. It's never a bad thing having good looks before hand of course but if it all flips the last few days of the month then you can worry at whatever level you feel comfortable in using the CFS. lol. Once we're into the first week of the month it's back to tracking d10-15 on the gefs/eps and it's hard to even remember what the CFS showed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I mostly just look at the last 5-7 runs of the month and see if they are *relatively* consistent. It's never a bad thing having good looks before hand of course but if it all flips the last few days of the month then you can worry at whatever level you feel comfortable in using the CFS. lol. Once we're into the first week of the month it's back to tracking d10-15 on the gefs/eps and it's hard to even remember what the CFS showed. lol True dat. Good run of the EPS just now imo long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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