John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Also appears the MRX point forecast is verbatim NAM 12k. It's the only model showing 40 degrees reaching my county, and sure enough, parts of my area are predicted to be 40/41 tomorrow afternoon. 18z RGEM has my temp at 33 tomorrow afternoon at 4 pm. NAM has it at 39. GGEM has it at 34. GFS has it at 34. RAP has it at 33 at noon here. NAM 4K has it at 34 at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Better than nothing i suppose,clippers hardly never do us any justice here.Noticed though the temps today were 3-4 degrees warmer than what was being shown,quite annoying National Weather Service Nashville TN 317 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 .DISCUSSION... Nice day today as a sfc trough upstream has allowed some thermal ridging to set up over the area. Current temps are into the lower 50s for many portions of the area. Look for conditions to change over the next 24 to 36 hours. A deepening trough over the U.S. will combine with a series of upper level impulses. These impulses will traverse our area, beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday evening. With 800 ft agl thresholds determining rain vs snow, it appears that the bulk of any precip that falls will be snow, except for Sunday late morning and afternoon for areas west of the Plateau. That said, snowfall to night will be on the light side, with relatively heavier amounts on Sunday with the stronger impulse moves through. I will be undercutting the numerical guidance as the snow/rain will pair with the lower wet bulb temps to keep us on the colder side. Accumulation potential does look best along the northern and central Plateau where 1 to 2 inches will be possible by Sunday evening. We will reissue the SPS to address this. Otw, west of the Plateau, given the warm ground and rain mixing in at times, the accumulation gradient will drop off rapidly. Generally, for areas along and east of I-24 and west of the nrn and cent Plateau, a dusting to a half inch is possible. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 30s Plateau to mid 40 far southwest. Moving on, we will see decreasing clouds on Monday, with warmer temps into the upper 40s for highs west of Plateau. The warming trend will continue on into Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, John1122 said: Also appears the MRX point forecast is verbatim NAM 12k. It's the only model showing 40 degrees reaching my county, and sure enough, parts of my area are predicted to be 40/41 tomorrow afternoon. 18z RGEM has my temp at 33 tomorrow afternoon at 4 pm. NAM has it at 39. GGEM has it at 34. GFS has it at 34. RAP has it at 33 at noon here. NAM 4K has it at 34 at 4. Posted an earlier post regarding kmrx using Nam and of it's warm bias for our general area. However, got knocked out of amwx before posting it. Said it saved but didn't. Anybody know why amwx keeps logging me out after a few minutes logged in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 In my post, I brought up an example of the Nam's bias and also of how during that huge Nam fail how mrx used it right up until it was past obvious. The event was the February 2015 1-2 feet storm here in which that model had us getting less than an inch before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: In my post, I brought up an example of the Nam's bias and also of how during that huge Nam fail how mrx used it right up until it was past obvious. The event was the February 2015 1-2 feet storm here in which that model had us getting less than an inch before changeover. But like i said before the models are to cold with the 2m's just by today,0Z GFS is even warmer the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yeah Jax, I've noticed that as today was several degrees warmer than forecast. Temps have actually jumped back up here tonight as wind started kicking up. However, dews have fallen. The point I made regarding the Nam is fact for this area most of the time though. Proven on several occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Oh, i'm not doubting you.I stay away from the NAM,its not a good model,this is HRRR range and it looks like snow by the sounding,we'll see These warmer then forecast temperatures have laid a vale of skepticism over me and the others. It is 35 And drizzling here... temps rising past hour. I certainly hope this doesn't bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 37 here currently. If it doesn't cool and starts as rain I could see rain being and issue. But there should be CAA at some point. Holding out hope for an inch tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Probably right for our area,this is really annoying to me,we cant even get a clipper to perform winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 These warmer than anticipated temps have put a damper on expectations for most of us and rightfully so in this snow starved winter in much of the area. You pretty much said it Jax. Clipper taking decent snow track but may produce rain. Say's it all about this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 NAM has ended up really close on temps. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 My temp has started dropping. Down to 39 with some evaporation taking place. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 If we can get some decent precipitation rates at some point, it could easily force temps downward. I'm at 40, so I think we'll at least have a mixture of rain and snow falling. Radar returns are increasing over the Great Valley, so we'll see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 just went from rn to ip to sn here in Brentwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 HRRR is off with the thermals,7 degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Down to 36 now with very light rain, drizzle. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Down to 36 now with very light rain, drizzle. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Perhaps this is more appropriate for the OBS but its snowing buckets with nothing sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: Perhaps this is more appropriate for the OBS but its snowing buckets with nothing sticking. A storm of so much potential but much disappointment for many.. If only it was nighttime the entire time. We'd actually see some nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxrjm said: A storm of so much potential but much disappointment for many.. If only it was nighttime the entire time. We'd actually see some nice snow. Just 48 hours ago the timing was to put the bulk of precip after dark. I also thought that would be critical to actually realize a nice light accumulation. Thanks for contributing, always glad to see a met posting in our subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Perhaps this is more appropriate for the OBS but its snowing buckets with nothing sticking.I think If it was busy I should of posted temps in the ops thread but only a few people in this one. Snowing now BTW at my house. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I've had some sleet pellets mixing in with light rain showers here this afternoon. I love the crisp, cool air though. Feels like the PNW in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Took a nap and when I woke, it was ripping pretty good. A couple of convective bands are over northern Washington County. Nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Took a nap and when I woke, it was ripping pretty good. A couple of convective bands are over northern Washington County. Nice surprise! The same is the case in Honaker over half an inch of snow in roughly 20 minutes with the temperature now safely sitting at 31F. Some weaker bands came through early but melted quickly. Hopefully the melted snow has chilled the ground enough for the latest wave to stick and endure. That band is advancing south at roughly 30 mph next areas under the gun are Abingdon and Marion. You can see it on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Typical clipper for me. NAM was right and the temp rocketed to above 40 today even here in a more NE location. What ever made it to the ground today was mostly rain and now I'm getting missed by convective bands to the north and south. Temp is 36 now. Being in a valley and right next to the Clinch Mountain puts me in a terrible place. There is no preferred flow direction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Nice, guys! A similar situation for me. I posted in the obs thread. We had close to a half inch here as well with a convective burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 Still getting off and on heavy snow showers. JKL said the game is just now starting and things there entire CWA is still on track for 1-2+ inches from dark til 1 or 2 am. That may bode well for those of us in the border areas or down stream of Eastern Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: Took a nap and when I woke, it was ripping pretty good. A couple of convective bands are over northern Washington County. Nice surprise! The same is the case in Honaker over half an inch of snow in roughly 20 minutes with the temperature now safely sitting at 31F. Some weaker bands came through early but melted quickly. Hopefully the melted snow has chilled the ground enough for the latest wave to stick and endure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Latest Incoming Band for everyone North and east of Middlesboro, Morristown, and Greeneville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Came to Erwin to visit my parents and it is dumping at the moment. Nice convective band with gusty winds at the moment. 1" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Heavy dusting after a brief snow burst here in town. MRX deserves some credit in this area. They nailed the forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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