BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 Buffalos best pattern is one with clippers due to LES/Lake Enhanced snow. I would say the upcoming pattern would be great, but usually clipper patterns have more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 To all our western NY peeps, you probably realize that this weekend marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the great Blizzard of 1977. I stumbled upon this gallery of front pages from the Buffalo Evening News during the storm. Some of you might enjoy looking at them! http://galleries.buffalonews.com/default.aspx?id=7673#/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, WNash said: Wow, Buffalo doesn't have much more this season than we had at this time in last year's complete atrocity. I actually really like this model for LES. It hits the Metro with about 3 batches of LES over the course of the run. There is definitely hope for some decent snow up there the next 10 days. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: To all our western NY peeps, you probably realize that this weekend marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the great Blizzard of 1977. I stumbled upon this gallery of front pages from the Buffalo Evening News during the storm. Some of you might enjoy looking at them! http://galleries.buffalonews.com/default.aspx?id=7673#/5 My entire family have told me so many stories of that storm. Still by far #1 in my books for best WNY storm ever, I doubt it ever gets beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 LES Warning will be issued for Buffalo based on latest guidance I'd say 5-10" inches for city and Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Good video. Baaaaad song... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Nice summary of the top 25 snowstorms in the Northeast over the last 60 years, based on NOAA rankings: http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/01/what_were_the_worst_25_storms_in_the_northeast_in_the_past_60_years.html#0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Nice summary of the top 25 snowstorms in the Northeast over the last 60 years, based on NOAA rankings: http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/01/what_were_the_worst_25_storms_in_the_northeast_in_the_past_60_years.html#0 Nice link! Holiday Valley is going to be awesome when I go next Friday. They have a 10-41" base still after that thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 WNash the weeklies which have been the most efficient so far this year came back extremely cold today. The entire month of Feb is below normal. If these are correct Lake Erie will begin freezing by the middle of the month, and possibly fully frozen by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: My entire family have told me so many stories of that storm. Still by far #1 in my books for best WNY storm ever, I doubt it ever gets beaten. Wow can't believe I put that video together 10 years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 RGEM has band over Metro from 3 PM to almost midnight Saturday. NAM 4KM is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Wow can't believe I put that video together 10 years ago... I didn't know you put it together, that is awesome. I still have a bunch of videos I need to put together for my channel. What software did you use to put this together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Wow can't believe I put that video together 10 years ago... Great job compiling and preserving the sights and sounds of that epic event. Many thanks! And ABBA FTW LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Sorry Fulton, I don't think you're seeing a foot from this event. CAMs aren't really doing a good job with this LES setup, my guess is that they resolve the lake temp a little cooler than it truly is. Marginal sfc.-850 Delta T's and models running too cool will do that. Still think it's a good event for the Tug with a max of 3' that probably doesn't get reported, but I-81 will see much less. Central Oswego county will cash in on the action a little more than I originally anticipated. Impressive inland penetration with this current lake band which stretches to Saratoga Springs. Of course, that means Oswego itself is pretty much screwed, but that's probably a blessing since I'm not there until Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: LES Warning will be issued for Buffalo based on latest guidance I'd say 5-10" inches for city and Airport. Morning AFD doesn't seem to think flow will back enough to get warning amounts into the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, WNash said: Morning AFD doesn't seem to think flow will back enough to get warning amounts into the Metro. Winds will back enough, but duration and intensity of the bands will be the problem. The arctic cold air isn't there as temps are marginal and Lake Erie is much cooler then the last big event. So snowfall rates will be 1" per hour instead of 3-4" like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 BUF going for 5-9" across the metro area tomorrow. Will be a nice start to climbing out of the snow drought if it verifies (BUF currently stuck at 3" for January). RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1255 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2017 NYZ010-011-280300- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0003.170128T1200Z-170129T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.170128T1200Z-170129T0900Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA 1255 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. On Saturday...a robust shortwave will dig southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes. This will result in the low level flow across our region steadily backing to 240 degrees...which will force the lake effect snows to move northward to the heart of the Buffalo and Watertown areas during the late morning and afternoon hours. The 12z guidance suggests that lake equilibrium levels will range between 5 and 7 kft during Saturday with plentiful moisture continuing to reside below this level...though on the other hand shear will also be on the increase and the bands should be steadily moving northward over a larger area than had previously been expected. Coupling all this with still only marginally-cold temperatures aloft (850 mb T`s of -10C to -11C)...feel that snowfall rates of a half inch to an inch per hour will be common...with additional amounts off Lake Ontario again likely ranging between 4 to 7 inches...and the slightly less favorable environment off Lake Erie resulting in total daytime accumulations of 3 to 5 inches from the Southern Tier northward across Northern Erie and Genesee counties. With additional such amounts then expected downwind of Lake Erie Saturday evening before the activity finally shifts back southward (refer to the Short Term section below for more info for more details on the Saturday night period)...we have converted the Lake Effect Snow Watch for Northern Erie and Genesee counties to a Lake Effect Snow Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I think tonight may be our best chance to see a few inches here in Liverpool, No Onondaga cty so we'll see what happens! Some added h7 moisture with slightly colder temps can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Therr looks to be a nice connection to Huron right now with that band just to the North of the South Shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 That band is definitely going to hit the southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Latest totals: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Interesting flip flop. The gradient south really tightened up but now they bumped a northern hit of 8-12 in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Interesting flip flop. The gradient south really tightened up but now they bumped a northern hit of 8-12 in the metro. 1.5" here already. Did a mini chase on the way to ice hockey and Eden/Angola have 3-4" so far from that band earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 8.3" in Perrysburg already. They shouldn't have a problem getting over 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 10:24 PM, BuffaloWeather said: WNash the weeklies which have been the most efficient so far this year came back extremely cold today. The entire month of Feb is below normal. If these are correct Lake Erie will begin freezing by the middle of the month, and possibly fully frozen by the end. Check out what happens in the 6z GEFS upper lvl plots between the hrs of 180-264 they are just perfect, long range looking really encouraging imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Looks like it should be go time for the metro here pretty soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Looks like it should be go time for the metro here pretty soon... Quote Off Lake Erie... Radar imagery showing a broad area of light to moderate snow across all of the Niagara Frontier late this morning. This snow is from a combination of forcing mechanisms, including lake enhancement, frictional convergence at the northeast end of Lake Erie, and large scale ascent from an approaching mid level shortwave. This broad area of snow will continue through midday or early afternoon before weakening, and may produce 1-2 inches of accumulation through the daylight hours. Lake induced equilibrium levels fall to around 5K feet during the late afternoon and early evening, and that combined with increased shear will keep any lake snow disorganized through early evening. As the mid level trough approaches, flow will become better aligned around mid evening and equilibrium levels will rapidly rise to around 10K feet. This should allow the broad area of light snow showers to consolidate into a stronger single band over the Buffalo Metro area to western Genesee County around mid evening. This band may drop a quick 2-4 or 3-5 inches in the advisory area through the early overnight with snowfall rates briefly reaching 1-2 inches per hour. Boundary layer flow will then quickly veer more westerly later tonight, which will push the strengthening band of snow onshore along the entire Lake Erie shore from Hamburg to Ripley, then inland across the higher terrain. Expect 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates to continue overnight as the band pushes back into the Southern Tier, with 4-6 inches of additional accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 So far we have inch and it's coming down good.. i'd say close to an inch per hr within the last half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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