BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 You guys average more snow than any city in the USA and you complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You guys average more snow than any city in the USA and you complain. Of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 According to that map if I walk the quarter of a mile from my house to the beach at Oneida Shores Park I'll get to see 12-18 inches of snow. Then I'll walk back home to bare ground, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 We might finally have someone on the forums that lives on the Chautuaqua ridge. We can all go visit him when we don't get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: According to that map if I walk the quarter of a mile from my house to the beach at Oneida Shores Park I'll get to see 12-18 inches of snow. Then I'll walk back home to bare ground, lol. It wouldn't be unheard of, that's how LES works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It wouldn't be unheard of, that's how LES works! Thats also how absurdly ambitious snow maps out of KBUF also usually work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 39 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thats also how absurdly ambitious snow maps out of KBUF also usually work. I'll sit back and watch but that's a lot of snow being forecast for a marginal event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I'll sit back and watch but that's a lot of snow being forecast for a marginal event.. Don't get me wrong, I think their 4 cast for the Tug region is probably spot on. With 260-280, even 290 flow, the lake shape and orientation helps funnel snow off the east end. It's very stable. With that in place for a few days...absolutely no qualms with the warning areas or forecasted amounts there. South of there it's likely occasional snow showers over the weekend. I'd just forecast one or two map categories lower with a sharper cutoff on either side of Tug bullseye. We see that play our pretty consistently. I may take a drive up near there sometime this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: Don't get me wrong, I think their 4 cast for the Tug region is probably spot on. With 260-280, even 290 flow, the lake shape and orientation helps funnel snow off the east end. It's very stable. With that in place for a few days...absolutely no qualms with the warning areas or forecasted amounts there. South of there it's likely occasional snow showers over the weekend. I'd just forecast one or two map categories lower with a sharper cutoff on either side of Tug bullseye. We see that play our pretty consistently. I may take a drive up near there sometime this weekend. Brian, if you drive anywhere near there this weekend I'm down for the ride bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is a good looking map I'd say. 2-4" for us I think is spot on. Yeah we may be the snowiest city in the USA but its all relative as to how you get there. We got 30 something inches in November and right now we sit below average for the season. That means between December and January we got 20 something inches which is what we average just in December alone, lol. We complain when were forecasted to get 6-10 and we get a trace, which is what I wound up with, if that, lol. Don't tell me you wouldn't be complaining if that happened area wide in and around KBUF, perhaps you wouldn't because you live in Hamburg, where you get crushed with every event practically, unless its a strict sw flow which is a rarity. People just don't understand, unless you live here, that's all I can say! i this time around we get blitzed, lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 46 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Brian, if you drive anywhere near there this weekend I'm down for the ride bro! Roger that. I'll let you know. I'll be tuning up my riding mower and weed wacker out in the shed getting a few things adjusted for spring and doing minor car repairs. I was gonna ski but that's out, really hardpan icy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: That map idea looks reasonable. Probably overdone by a category south of Oswego, except for hills in CNY, but that's being nitpicky, general theme looks about what I'd expect for mainly W and WSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 What perfect timing. Just got transferred down to the southern tier for work. Should be a fun commute the next few days. Counting a good 6-7 passes I'll get to make right through the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Ty - here's my data: Station 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Avg 2016-17 KMBY 138.5 127.9 144.3 131.8 154.5 114.2 177.85 43.85 121.3 143.2 129.9 71.65 124.9 61.6 KSYR 136.2 124.6 140.2 109.1 149.6 106.1 179.0 50.6 115.4 132.0 119.7 80.3 120.2 68.8 My snowfall (KMBY - MyBackYard) is very close to KSYR. Being somewhat NW of KSYR, I thought we averaged closer to a foot more than KSYR but nope. I was right, only 2 years had KSYR > KMBY and one was essentially a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 10 hours ago, Syrmax said: Ty - here's my data: Station 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Avg 2016-17 KMBY 138.5 127.9 144.3 131.8 154.5 114.2 177.85 43.85 121.3 143.2 129.9 71.65 124.9 61.6 KSYR 136.2 124.6 140.2 109.1 149.6 106.1 179.0 50.6 115.4 132.0 119.7 80.3 120.2 68.8 My snowfall (KMBY - MyBackYard) is very close to KSYR. Being somewhat NW of KSYR, I thought we averaged closer to a foot more than KSYR but nope. I was right, only 2 years had KSYR > KMBY and one was essentially a tie. Locals like to talk about crossing the Brewerton bridge on I81 north, how it represents some kind of a line of demarcation. I know from experience that all I have to do is drive the 5 miles north to Central Square and there is a noticeable increase in the amount of snow. My niece lives off Route 49 just west of Central Square and when I got 18 inches in that November event she probably received at least a foot more than me. This happens on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Saturday's Erie LES doesn't even look like it's going to get as far north as the airport. We return to favorable lake effect conditions but the flow stays locked in exactly where it was all winter. Useless. Let's go back to 60F and end this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Man, we are all so negged out! I've also seen this in other forums. We are not alone. Not sure why. Hopefully we get an upside surprise this weekend. It's possible off of both lakes. Granted, it won't be a 2 foot dump but there's at least the potential for something worth measuring for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The operational GFS is not all doom and gloom. We've still got at least 7 weeks of good winter potential. A lot of our memorable synoptic and lake effect storms have taken place from this point on (Superstorm of 1993, Blizzard of '66, VD '07, "Winter in a week '07, etc.). Let's just relax and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 It used to be that the 4km NAM would pick out higher snow amounts in LES situations (I think.) Now the 12z 4km NAM plot has 1-2" of snow, south of Erie PA. The NWS forecast has over 9" in 54 hours, south of Erie. What is going on with this 4km model? Do the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW do a lot better with this situation? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: It used to be that the 4km NAM would pick out higher snow amounts in LES situations (I think.) Now the 12z 4km NAM plot has 1-2" of snow, south of Erie PA. The NWS forecast has over 9" in 54 hours, south of Erie. What is going on with this 4km model? Do the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW do a lot better with this situation? Just wondering. Models in general don't do well with LES situations at all. Usually the RGEM/WRF models handle it the best. Anything within 48 hours and HIRES does the best. Modeled QPF is the worst in LES situations compared to synoptic. The best Global model for LES Snowfall outputs IMO is the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 hours ago, WNash said: Saturday's Erie LES doesn't even look like it's going to get as far north as the airport. We return to favorable lake effect conditions but the flow stays locked in exactly where it was all winter. Useless. Let's go back to 60F and end this season. Looks really warm at the end of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks really warm at the end of the Euro. I'll take it. We want to have a new fence put in. Having that work done in February would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts? I mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief. Man up people. This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads. The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS. In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome. THINK positive. I think February brings some synoptic hits. I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 31 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts? I mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief. Man up people. This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads. The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS. In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome. THINK positive. I think February brings some synoptic hits. I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps. Exactly what I said above. We are only in the middle of winter. I know it hasn't been epic so far but we have to keep the faith that we'll pull out one or two good events before we throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS at 240 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Some perspective compared to last season in particular: GSB Cities The 2016 - 2017 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Syracuse 68.8 70.0 40.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 63.2 42.7 13.5 83.4 134.0 inches (1995 - 1996) Rochester 54.4 52.1 21.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Buffalo 34.5 57.2 25.9 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 17.2 31.5 5.5 59.1 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: Some perspective compared to last season in particular: GSB Cities The 2016 - 2017 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Syracuse 68.8 70.0 40.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 63.2 42.7 13.5 83.4 134.0 inches (1995 - 1996) Rochester 54.4 52.1 21.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Buffalo 34.5 57.2 25.9 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 17.2 31.5 5.5 59.1 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Wow, Buffalo doesn't have much more this season than we had at this time in last year's complete atrocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts? I mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief. Man up people. This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads. The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS. In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome. THINK positive. I think February brings some synoptic hits. I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps. Seriously? This is looking like the fourth historically awful season for Buffalo in the last six. A bit bigger than IMBY. Sure, this could turn around but I'd bet bigger on persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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