Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 So basically...the end of week LES will be feet of snow on the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill region with indeterminate table scraps elsewhere. SOSDD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Great news, with our 0.3 in BUF is now at 34.2 for the season, so we're only 21.5" below normal. At this point I'm just resigned to the fourth below 60" winter in the last six seasons. Maybe we'll make a run at a bottom three all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Around 2" of sand. Some freezing rain thrown in too. It feels like shoveling 8" of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Rochester is closing in on a half inch right now. .25" of sleet and now .25" of wet snow. Pretty tame. Grass is still visible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Rochester is closing in on a half inch right now. .25" of sleet and now .25" of wet snow. Pretty tame. Grass is still visible.... Should of listened to yoiu days ago when you said this was looking like a cold cold rain for the area and you were mostly right except for the sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Well that certainly is the little deformation band that could. Light to moderate snow from noon on has now brought us up to a respectable 3-4 inches (heavy stuff). I actually got to run the snowblower for a few minutes. Now if we can just hold this base through the couple mild days ahead, we'll have snow on the ground for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 I told you guys this storm had extremely high bust potential. It ended up coming to fruition, the NWS went really high with snowfall amounts with marginal temps. Rochester still made out better than I thought they would. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 EPS and GEFS differ quite a bit after this week. Overall the GEFS are much cooler than the EPS are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 33 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Well that certainly is the little deformation band that could. Light to moderate snow from noon on has now brought us up to a respectable 3-4 inches (heavy stuff). I actually got to run the snowblower for a few minutes. Now if we can just hold this base through the couple mild days ahead, we'll have snow on the ground for the next few weeks. That's a big iff IMO. I could see it getting warm in 2 weeks. The long range temp. outlook has been absolutely deplorable. The Euro weeklies have been showing cold air for weeks 3-7 for the last 3 months and it's never come to fruition. I wonder if the Euro upgrade made it worse if that's possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Ended up with about 5 inches of heavy wet snow here in Lansing. Some trees and branches were down in the area from the freezing rain prior to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, WxNoob said: Ended up with about 5 inches of heavy wet snow here in Lansing. Some trees and branches were down in the area from the freezing rain prior to the snow. Nice WX, and welcome to the forums haven't seen you post before. Pattern literally changes with every run, there is just zero consistency right now. GEM/GFS has a nice clipper setup with quite a few LES chances with changing winds. Arctic air is still no where to be found so the LES won't be to intense and be more enhanced as the clippers come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Here are the analogs for the upcoming LES event. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2017012500&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Yup, plenty of snowfall opportunities over the next 7-10 days.. Thursday Night Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Low around 31. West wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...FOUR DAY STORM TOTALS MAY EXCEED 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS WILL BE A LONG LASTING EVENT...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Moderate snow here with absolutely nothing on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Moderate snow here with absolutely nothing on radar... Same here...maybe a quick inch this a.m. looks to be last accum snow till next week perhaps. This next LES event should be up on the Tug. You might grab some in Fulton hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nice WX, and welcome to the forums haven't seen you post before. Pattern literally changes with every run, there is just zero consistency right now. GEM/GFS has a nice clipper setup with quite a few LES chances with changing winds. Arctic air is still no where to be found so the LES won't be to intense and be more enhanced as the clippers come through. Thanks BuffaloWeather, moved from Brooklyn to Lansing in the fall so this is my first winter in the area - Loving it so far! Was lucky enough to experience the storms of my life living in the New York area (Sandy and the 30 inch 2016 blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Fascinating event to say the least , obviously the initial storm was a bust with only a coating of snow then we snowed light all day yesterday (strictly eyeballing around 2"), we had a snowy mist overnight before a burst of moderate snow this morning before changing to light freezing drizzle for about an hr and now back to light (at times moderate) snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Welcome to the forum NOOB!! I myself grew up in Staten Island (worked in BK many years) and then relocated from NJ up here, this is my 2nd winter and I also love it lol I lived 20 miles inland along the jersey coast during sandy, definitely was not fun lol And 2 weeks later we picked up over a foot of snow in November!!! Best storm of my lifetime was 96 and probably always will be.. Take care .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Moderate snow here with absolutely nothing on radar... NWS radars are overshooting this band of snow. Channel 9's local Doppler is showing a narrow band of snow that's moving northward. I got next to nothing from the deformation band yesterday. I'll probably get more snow out of this little band than from the synoptic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Noticed ensembles and even op gfs point to a more seasonable late jan and early feb which ought to yield a few synoptic opportunities ahead and lake snow up on the Tug and CR. Notably, the core of the cold is modeled to be restrained in Canada, which us usual, but enough of a PNA structure seems to persist to keep northeast US seasonable. And that's fine as reliving another "Polar Vortex" February is frankly not on my bucket list. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Noticed ensembles and even op gfs point to a more seasonable late jan and early feb which ought to yield a few synoptic opportunities ahead and lake snow up on the Tug and CR. Notably, the core of the cold is modeled to be restrained in Canada, which us usual, but enough of a PNA structure seems to persist to keep northeast US seasonable. And that's fine as reliving another "Polar Vortex" February is frankly not on my bucket list. We'll see. EPO is progged to go negative which should help keep that milder, pacific air from flooding the country. AO may even dip below 0 as well in Feb. Would be nice to have the colder air needed to prevent squandering synoptic opportunities like we just experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, WxNoob said: Thanks BuffaloWeather, moved from Brooklyn to Lansing in the fall so this is my first winter in the area - Loving it so far! Was lucky enough to experience the storms of my life living in the New York area (Sandy and the 30 inch 2016 blizzard) That is awesome. I remember being on the forums nonstop during Sandy. The stories I heard were insane, definitely a storm of a lifetime. One of these days I'll be right in the eye of a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a big iff IMO. I could see it getting warm in 2 weeks. The long range temp. outlook has been absolutely deplorable. The Euro weeklies have been showing cold air for weeks 3-7 for the last 3 months and it's never come to fruition. I wonder if the Euro upgrade made it worse if that's possible? Yeah and the weeklies are doing horrendous. The Euro **** the bed with this system that just busted and the GFS and NAM were victorious! Personally Spring can't come any sooner for me as now were gonna miiss this 5 day LES event here in the Cuse so we may end up way way below or 123" average which is becoming common! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah and the weeklies are doing horrendous. The Euro **** the bed with this system that just busted and the GFS and NAM were victorious! Personally Spring can't come any sooner for me as now were gonna miiss this 5 day LES event here in the Cuse so we may end up way way below or 123" average which is becoming common! Hey Ty! Per my records, since 2004...we have only had 2 winters appreciably under my long term avg...which is about 125-130"...last year being a Yuge miss. I dont have the numbers right in front of me now but thats my recollection. And i think i agree that the upcoming LES is gonna be pretty much a non-event for us...maybe a few hours of snow at some point. I am at around 65" for season so we will probably need a big Feb/March to pull this one out of the ditch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Welcome back Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Hey Ty! Per my records, since 2004...we have only had 2 winters appreciably under my long term avg...which is about 125-130"...last year being a Yuge miss. I dont have the numbers right in front of me now but thats my recollection. And i think i agree that the upcoming LES is gonna be pretty much a non-event for us...maybe a few hours of snow at some point. I am at around 65" for season so we will probably need a big Feb/March to pull this one out of the ditch. Its just amazing to me that it will do anything, to NOT snow here this particular year, because we've had chances but they just crumble upon impact. I'm just amazed how every event either misses us to the East, or most of the time they head up the ORV and just West of Lake Erie and then through Ontario ( Lately anyway, obviously pattern dependent) but that's been our basic pattern, lol, it seems like for ever. I realize we're not particularly prone to dynamic Synoptic systems due to our proximity, distance from the Atlantic but then again ENY hasn't faired too well either, unless I'm mistaken and please someone correct me if I'm wrong. Then I won't even go into the LES events as I thought being in Pennellville was bad but here just North of Syracuse is even worse. I know 10 miles South isn't a lot but with respect to LES, it sure is, lol. I think I'm gonna try to find some property in between Pennellville and Mexico since the wife works downtown, so we don't wanna be too far from the city because her commute living up there , if we were to find something, would be down right treacherous so..... People up North right now don't even care that they missed out on the Synoptic event because there gonna get absolutely blitzed the next few/several days, while we watch a stray furry fly by while we stare out our windows, except when there's that sw that drops a trace every so often as they go by, just to watch the winds go back to the W after their passage. why can't we get what we got in November now, at least it'll stay around a while, well not this yr, but why in November. That's why the Weather is so intriguing to me cause you never know what's next and trying to find out is almost impossible! Just venting cause that system, if it had been 7 degrees colder would of been a nice, not epic or historic but a decent plowable snowfall. This event started out forecasted to be a predominantly NW-WNW flow event, until a day ago then it changed as the meso's got a handle on how the bust system is gonna effect the BL winds suppose. Anyway, I'm just venting my frustration cause I had such high hopes for this Winter seeing how the last couple have been, I thought this one would of made of forget about those, lol, but I guess not. Enjoy the flurries the end of the week through the weekend. maybe one of these sw's will surprise us, lol, doubt it but just trying to be optimistic. Whats up to the new guy in the thread, if ya read through his long winded post, lol, WXNood I believe it is, if not sorry but anyway WELCOME to the snowiest thread within the community. But we get no Synoptic systems, lol, just LE if your in a good area, otherwise shellshocked you will be from lack of snow but don't concerned as its not common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Welcome back Winter. I'm happy with 6-8 if I extrapolate that snow map, but I know better. 1-2" if we'ere lucky this go around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 My yard is nothing but one big swamp right now, I'm glad we aren't gonna get any LES, I'm about ready to wave the white flag and say screw this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm happy with 6-8 if I extrapolate that snow map, but I know better. 1-2" if we'ere lucky this go around! That BUF map can't be extrapolated south for LES...never works out, unless you take the amount in extreme So. Oswego county (like 1/4 mile from my place) and divide by 2, or more usually 3. So 8-12" becomes say, 2-4". Which is reasonable for a few hrs of snow here and there over a 4 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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