CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Glad I don't live out your way, lol, cause its gonna snow here in the cuse for days and days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Quote The Euro ain't cavin! Mark my words . This bad boys going east. PVD, HFD, ORH, BOS special... what else is new? Maybe some lighter stuff out towards you with some super cold temps and wrap around moisture at least the lakes should help whiten the ground all across the south shore. WNY will be lucky to see more than a few passing snow squalls. I just did, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Glad I don't live out your way, lol, cause its gonna snow here in the cuse for days and days! Your quite optimistic, hope your right. As much as it sucks to be in a snow drought here, I don't wish the unfortunate luck we have here on anyone, so hope you do cash in! 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I just did, lol! Good cause I'd bet by 3am in the morning you'll be wishing you never bet against the Euro! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good cause I'd bet by 3am in the morning you'll be wishing you never bet against the Euro! LolI'll be dreaming at 3am, lol, and I don't think models are going either way as they will hold serve until tomorrow 18z after the SW enters the WC! We'll see but reverse psychology doesn't work with the weather, lol.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like nam wants to come further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z NAM is just eye candy. Wait until the entire storm is in its range and there are 50-60" lolli's on the clown maps. It drops 12" in the first 6 hours in S Tier right out of the gate lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like nam wants to come further west If anything to me it looks like it's east a bit... comparing the 18z 84 hr panels to the 00z 78 hr panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yes but it starting to get captured at end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ugggh it would be amazing to get a huge storm before I leave Ithaca for NYC but I've been burned so many times up here. I need the Euro to move west before I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So everyone's hanging their hats on the euro? It's verification rate hasn't been great lately. I'm excited to see if GFS holds. If GFS heads towards euro I'll be considerably saddened. Besides, who the hell can stay up for it? Tim, you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't know Dave. Lol 2 am is a long time. And I agree gfs I think has the edge on euro this winter. I would love for this to stall over Vermont for a day. Would be a big one row roc. I think the euro is not capturing the storm like nam gfs ukie is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The Ukie disagreeing with the Euro makes me somewhat hopeful; usually they're pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I know we've been starved for synoptic events...and emotions are interfering with logic. So "throwing out" or "tossing" models here and there becomes sensible the more we invest emotions. The storm is 4 days out...several pieces of energy to make (or break) the storm are (as usual for these type storms) still in la la land for data assimilation into the models...and that is what this boils down to. So any model right now, still could be close to verification... or new solutions that we haven't seen yet could "pop up"..we just have to wait...that's all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS is west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS is west! In what way? I was just thinking east...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 For a phase like that I would think it would throw more precipitation west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: In what way? I was just thinking east...? LP is central NJ to southern New England. Just inland enough to throw considerable precip all the way back to Buffalo. It trended just west of bullish 18z run. 985 LP just about over NYC. It's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's farther west till delmarva. Then same a bit east from earlier. So maybe just noise. But I have learned with phases like this may be bet on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: It's farther west till delmarva. Then same a bit east from earlier. So maybe just noise. But I have learned with phases like this may be bet on west. Anyone west of ROCH just stop watching models now. Seriously. It's not snowing in WNY this winter. It's just not. Good luck on this one ROCH points east. Hope you get a foot plus that melts within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The 0z GFS track was near or perhaps slightly west of the 18z run. QPF shield may have shrank a tad on the western flank but that is irrelevant at this point. Overall no big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Cmc Way west from 12z. 6 to 10 all of western ny on it. But does not phase like nam gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UKIE looks to be over the New England BM...hard to tell with their graphics. Either way, well East of 12z. GFS is really on its own right now...unless you want to count the NAM as far as it reaches. I'm not overly hopefully even here in far ENY for much, but still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Anyone west of ROCH just stop watching models now. Seriously. It's not snowing in WNY this winter. It's just not. Good luck on this one ROCH points east. Hope you get a foot plus that melts within a week. I'd say about 2 weeks, lol, since this cold has some staying power but even though it's cold, the Sun will still be doing it's job. A lot of melting and re-freezing going to be happening next couple weeks, lol. What would really be funny is if we had the snowiest Month of the season be March behind November, lol. This is why weather is so amazing to me. If you were to tell me in July of 16 that our 2 snowiest months will be March and November, I would of laughed in your face, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At this point I don't care where she tracks as we can have an extended LE-LES event with ample moisture, fresh batch of Nunavut Air and a nice fetch so all in all, we snow either way its only the total that matters at this point and its for pretty much the whole ares, not just the Eastern end of the LO. but everyone has their preference of the weather they prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'd say about 2 weeks, lol, since this cold has some staying power but even though it's cold, the Sun will still be doing it's job. A lot of melting and re-freezing going to be happening next couple weeks, lol. What would really be funny is if we had the snowiest Month of the season be March behind November, lol. This is why weather is so amazing to me. If you were to tell me in July of 16 that our 2 snowiest months will be March and November, I would of laughed in your face, lol! Maybe for you in CNY. WNY will get an inch tops and look forward to spring. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Stash said: UKIE looks to be over the New England BM...hard to tell with their graphics. Either way, well East of 12z. GFS is really on its own right now...unless you want to count the NAM as far as it reaches. I'm not overly hopefully even here in far ENY for much, but still lots of time. If she goes from the delmarva to NYC then cuts NE toward the BM, will will get hit and the way this trough is positioned there will be ample amounts of ATL moisture thrown back West pretty far I'd imagine but we are still 4 days out and that's a eternity in model land! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Maybe for you in CNY. WNY will get an inch tops and look forward to spring. Good luck. I'm looking forward to spring myself but reality is that were going into a wintry period of at least 10 days or so and then we creep out and I think Spring makes a strong entrance middle of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 degrees with winds gusting to 25-30 at times feels pretty Wintry to me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 When do ensembles come out dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Cmc gives roc a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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