wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gfs holds serve, ggem wants no part of it lol I would say U.K. Looks ok.. Same goes for the GEFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS goes nuts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UK track looks very similar to GFS. Starting to get pretty optimistic with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, vortmax said: GFS goes nuts: That map looks perfect to me.....the localized bullseye in NW Delaware County is my backyard. Keeping a closer eye on this. It sure seems like we are overdue, but I have been saying that for the last 20 "potential" storms at 3-4 days out so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, vortmax said: GFS goes nuts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I Wished the euro looked like that Hard to be on board without the euro.. Kinda 2 camps right now Gfs/U.K. Vs euro/Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I Wished the euro looked like that Hard to be on board without the euro.. Kinda 2 camps right now Gfs/U.K. Vs euro/Canadian.. What a depressing track for upstate on the 12z euro while SNE weenies get buried with feets of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I Wished the euro looked like that Hard to be on board without the euro.. Kinda 2 camps right now Gfs/U.K. Vs euro/Canadian..The EURO is nothing compared to what it was before the latest upgrade so.... the GGEM, lol, absolute joke. The Nam isn't even in range yet but at 84 it looks great! What does the Euro even show? I mean we're 3 days out so they can't be that far off from one another but what do I know. If the GFS track comes to fruition we would get absolutely buried, seriously! The synoptic wrap around combined with LE looks super impressive as well. I can't get too excited though until tomorrow night!Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The Euro is gonna cave to the GFS! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What in God's name is the Euro doing, so much differently, that it can have that much of a difference in track and the overall scenario? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm throwing the Euro out, yep I said it, I'm disregarding the Euros prognosis. If I see a drastic change in track and intensity on the GFS, then I will throw in the towel I'm so sick of SNE being the new snow capital of the Country. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I know what the outcome is going to be already so I'm pretty much just fooling myself. I didn't want to get caught up in this, and I did.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 KBUF's take: Considering that the GFS still remains the outlier...and climatological support for the GEM/ECMWF solutions...at this point feel it best to stick very close to continuity for the Monday night through Tuesday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I was doing great before I saw all the hype but I should of known we were still 5 days out. We don't get lucky and **** doesn't trend our way. I've been saying for yrs that we are in a horrible spot for synoptic blockbusters and I feel it even more so now! My RANT is done, peace ppl!Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Whatever to KBUF'S take. Climatology favors the GGEM and EURO??? The SW responsible for cyclo genesis doesn't come ashore till tomorrow afternoon but I would think the gulf of Alaska would have sufficient data to formulate a forecast but IDK. Also, with respect to the Ensemble package, 2 scenarios had us at a total miss and the rest were solid 12+ scenarios and if the GFS, this close in, does a complete 180 with both the GFS and the GEFS, then I would think there's a serious problem with the GFS. I mean the GEFS were really tightly clustered, NO? Tonight's suite should answer a few questions. Either the EURO-GGEM start to trend towards the GFS-UKMET or the other way around. Only 2 possibilities exist this close to game time IWT, but that's just my crazy thinking, lol! One thing I do know, for sure, is that it's going to get absolutely frigid! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has anyone ever seen an Ensemble package do a complete 180 this close in to game time. What about both the GGEM and EURO's ensemble packages? Are they too, all basic misses or are there some hits in there mixed in as that would tell us something. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 84 hr 18Z NAM is about to go boom and seems inland. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I love this setup. The second low point over Ohio Valley is gonna pull this west. Nam looks totally amped and would've shown main low running just inland to coast. This looks to be a blockbuster storm for all of upstate NY. It has blocking, it has cold, it has a double or triple phase! It rarely gets better. Lakes are warm. Damn! Let the fun begin. I do wish the euro was on board. It'll be great to watch. At this point, sweet spot appears to be I81. But further west is possible. I don't see this going flat or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The EURO is nothing compared to what it was before the latest upgrade so.... the GGEM, lol, absolute joke. The Nam isn't even in range yet but at 84 it looks great! What does the Euro even show? I mean we're 3 days out so they can't be that far off from one another but what do I know. If the GFS track comes to fruition we would get absolutely buried, seriously! The synoptic wrap around combined with LE looks super impressive as well. I can't get too excited though until tomorrow night! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk The NAM is obviously outside its wheel house, but suffice to say it is clearly in the GFS/UK camp based on the DGEX which is an extrapolation of the NAM. One thing for sure, there is going to be tremendous moisture inflow off the Atlantic. This and other models have that classic comma head look to it. Someone is getting buried with this one, just hope its us and not SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yea the dgex is MOG worthy, to bad it's the dgex lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'll be missing this storm. But don't worry about me. I'll be here. Keep me updated through this thread though, I'll be checking in! Hopefully going to swim with some whale sharks in the gulf as well! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll be missing this storm. But don't worry about me. I'll be here. Keep me updated through this thread though, I'll be checking in! Hopefully going to swim with some whale sharks in the gulf as well! =) I was just in Jamaica for 5 days at an all inclusive resort....amazing!! Hope you enjoy the **** out of your time there! We'll measure the snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A couple euro like solutions but not many.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A couple euro like solutions but not many.. It's starting to cave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Tonight's model run will for sure cluster a bit better. I could care less about the GGEM seriously. It's good for cold and nothing else, now when we get into the rgem's world then it's a different story, especially if it mimics the Euro! One suite has to cave and I think it's gonna be the EURO IMHO!Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I love this setup. The second low point over Ohio Valley is gonna pull this west. Nam looks totally amped and would've shown main low running just inland to coast. This looks to be a blockbuster storm for all of upstate NY. It has blocking, it has cold, it has a double or triple phase! It rarely gets better. Lakes are warm. Damn! Let the fun begin. I do wish the euro was on board. It'll be great to watch. At this point, sweet spot appears to be I81. But further west is possible. I don't see this going flat or OTS. Good post Dave!Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Heavy squalls snow here just east of Rochester. Looks like Greece is getting it. Dave you snowing. I could see a surprise lake storm starting meso models showing lake snow for 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Georgian bay is looking strong tonight. Getting some fun quick hitting squalls tonight on the west side. The temps and wind are absolutely brutal though. Tomorrow's parade will be pure drunken misery in Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Tonight's model run will for sure cluster a bit better. I could care less about the GGEM seriously. It's good for cold and nothing else, now when we get into the rgem's world then it's a different story, especially if it mimics the Euro! One suite has to cave and I think it's gonna be the EURO IMHO! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk The Euro ain't cavin! Mark my words. This bad boys going east. PVD, HFD, ORH, BOS special... what else is new? Maybe some lighter stuff out towards you with some super cold temps and wrap around moisture at least the lakes should help whiten the ground all across the south shore. WNY will be lucky to see more than a few passing snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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