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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Hit this one. Had 2 degrees at my house this morning with reports of 0 and below in the area. After a warmup back into the 50s we cool down and a couple of systems pass just to our south next weekend. The trouble is this time of year 850s of 0 to -5 doesn't insure snow at the surface with insolation warming the boundary layer. From here on out we have to enjoy any system in the present as any snow accumulation is going to get blown away as soon as the sun comes out. 


Were not gonna see 60's with this next warm shot IMO, which actually, looks very short lived anyway. I just hope it snaps right back into Spring mode when April hits!!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted
On 3/3/2017 at 6:42 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I've been checking the forecasts for the high arctic too. It's brutal up there currently, with daytime highs between 6 and 8 degrees Celsius below average. Take a look at the forecast for Resolute in Nunavut.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

Check this out:  Record Cold in Arctic Canada

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2017/03/record-cold-in-arctic-canada.html

 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Surprised to see us under wind warnings for tomorrows storm system.  It's a very non-standard setup for high winds....so much so that I'm skeptical we get anywhere near verifying.  That said, I'm not overly familiar with scenarios like this so it will be interesting to watch unfold.    

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

NWS did a nice writeup of this non-standard high wind event.  I'll post it here for posterity.  Getting pretty gusty in Rochester now.  Sustained winds are near 40mph with gusts to 52 in the last hour. 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong low pressure along the south shores of Hudson Bay this
morning will gradually weaken as it drifts north into Hudson
Bay. While the position of the surface low is not a typical set
up for high winds across Western New York, there are several
factors which suggest there will be a period of damaging winds
across the region, especially across the Niagara Frontier and
extending into Monroe County.

A vort max embedded in an upper level trough associated with
this low across Eastern Michigan late this morning will pivot
across our region mid to late afternoon. Consensus 925mb winds
are forecast to increase to 60 kts across the Western New York
lake plains and 45 to 50 kts across interior sections and the
Eastern Lake Ontario region. 850mb winds are generally 5-10 kts
stronger than this. With mostly sunny skies across the region,
these should readily mix to the surface with peak gusts likely
to be around or a bit more than the 925mb winds. This is
reflected in most model guidance, with the HRRR showing peak
winds between 2 pm and 6 pm today. Finally, upstream
observations support this with widespread gusts over 50 mph
across Eastern Michigan already this morning with winds forecast
to increase when this reaches our region this afternoon. The
primary forecast concern is if clouds associated with the
shortwave reach our area before the core of the winds, but it
appears this will not be the case with clouds moving in right
behind the core of strongest mid-level winds.

Based on this, have expanded the high wind warning to include
all of Western New York with gusts to 60 mph expected in most of
the warning area. The strongest winds will be across the Niagara
Frontier, extending into Western Monroe county where gusts to 70
mph are expected. Lake Erie may provide a modest stabilizing
influence near downtown Buffalo, but this may serve to enhance
gusts across Genesee County. With the ground thawed in most areas,
winds this strong can cause rather widespread tree damage. The
strongest winds aloft do not reach the Eastern Lake Ontario
Region until sunset, so with less mixing have kept this area in
an advisory.

This is an unusual event. Local research shows that 850mb winds
speeds support a significant wind event, but that the position
of the parent low is not in a favorable position typical of
high wind events in our area. This low is around 900 miles
northwest of Buffalo where typically lows bringing high winds
track within 500 miles northwest of Buffalo. Another unusual
characteristic is that the low is filling when typically lows
associated with high wind events should continually deepen.
There are also no matches to the top 15 CIPS analogs to todays
event which produced high winds within a most recent local
2004-2014 wind study. Three of the top 15 events did however
match Advisory events. These points aside, this is an unusually
deep low with center 5 Standard deviations below normal per 00z
NAEFS ensembles and does have a history of producing gusts over
50kts.
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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester has gusted to 71mph twice in the last hour.  Unreal stuff here.  I never would have pegged this event just a few days ago with a casual perusal of the models.  

The AFD was really interesting...obviously a new analog in the making...

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted

PDS for high winds for WNY. I don't think I've ever seen this before.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

Winds gusting 60 up to 80 mph western NY. Now is NOT the time to be outdoors. Widespread damage and power outages are occurring across the region this afternoon. At 1:35pm #Rochester gusted to 81 mph! 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017

NYZ001>003-010>012-085-082300-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
211 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017

...DANGEROUS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

Very strong and damaging winds will continue this afternoon from
the Niagara Frontier east to Rochester. Wind gusts will reach 70
to 80 mph at times through late afternoon. Winds of this magnitude
will result in extensive damage to trees and power lines,
widespread power outages, and significant property damage,
including damage to roofs.
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MGorse

MGorse

Posted
Posted
On 3/7/2017 at 2:24 PM, DeltaT13 said:

Surprised to see us under wind warnings for tomorrows storm system.  It's a very non-standard setup for high winds....so much so that I'm skeptical we get anywhere near verifying.  That said, I'm not overly familiar with scenarios like this so it will be interesting to watch unfold.    

Looks like NWS Buffalo did a good job leading up to this high wind event. That being said, 81 mph gust in ROC. Damn! Is that the second highest gust recorded? I think the first was 89 mph back in September 1998 (Labor Day Derecho). 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Surprised I'm not hearing much from Dave or Tim.  Pretty historic event for the area.  Strongest non-thunderstorm wind ever in Rochester..  Impressive tree damage and structural damage in places.  Easily the strongest winds that I've ever witnessed in WNY.  

I got out of work a little early because I was hearing horror stories from my side of town and I live in a tree laden neighborhood.  Here are some pictures from a quick drive around before sunset.  Saw some things I really hadn't seen before such as buildings with roofing shingles and tar paper torn off (showing bare wood), stop lights blown down, stop signs and other signs mangled, flag poles bent, for sale signs uprooted, etc.  Pine trees of course accounted for the most significant tree damage, some of it was pretty heart breaking.

81mph is legit

(Iphone pics are huge so I could only pick a couple, there are far more impressive ones on the local news sites)

IMG_7095.JPG

IMG_7119.JPG

IMG_7133.JPG

IMG_7166.JPG

IMG_7169.JPG

IMG_7154.JPG

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Hey guys. Been lurking. Lol. Yes most damage I have seen since 91 ice storm. Very rough drive today Greece to Walworth. Trees on fire on wires 2 times on drive. Also about 4 poles snapped in half about a mile from my house. Now Goin to get brutal cold going to need many shelters soon.

I figured your area got slammed.  Irondequoit is now also under state of emergency too.  

Lets not forget that the winds derailed a freaking train in Batavia this afternoon!

http://www.thedailynewsonline.com/bdn01/train-derails-in-batavia-amid-high-winds-20170308

 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Surprised I'm not hearing much from Dave or Tim.  Pretty historic event for the area.  Strongest non-thunderstorm wind ever in Rochester..  Impressive tree damage and structural damage in places.  Easily the strongest winds that I've ever witnessed in WNY.  

I got out of work a little early because I was hearing horror stories from my side of town and I live in a tree laden neighborhood.  Here are some pictures from a quick drive around before sunset.  Saw some things I really hadn't seen before such as buildings with roofing shingles and tar paper torn off (showing bare wood), stop lights blown down, stop signs and other signs mangled, flag poles bent, for sale signs uprooted, etc.  Pine trees of course accounted for the most significant tree damage, some of it was pretty heart breaking.

81mph is legit

(Iphone pics are huge so I could only pick a couple, there are far more impressive ones on the local news sites)

IMG_7095.JPG

IMG_7119.JPG

IMG_7133.JPG

IMG_7166.JPG

IMG_7169.JPG

IMG_7154.JPG


Nice post Delta!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

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