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Upstate/Eastern New York


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24 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Just measured 3.5 inches most of which fell in the last hour. This was an unexpected surprise. It looks like the band is moving northward and it's lightening up right now. All this will be a memory in the next 24-48 hours. 

1.75" here, enough to remind us it's still winter...but yeah, it'll be gone by end of Monday. Long range looks potentially wintry. At least seasonably cold.  Should be some storms popping up at some point.  Frankly, after the last few days...I was rather looking forward to a Morch.  Looks like that won't happen.

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I saw a few flakes pass by today but a big yawn from this Winter lover.as Spring can't come any sooner and I already know that just isn't gonna happen and that's the annoying part.  Not only do we have to deal with a horrific Winter but Spring now will be ruined, guaranteed, as I've seen this scenario play out too many times in my 44yrs of existence.

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The 12Z GFS is forecasting 850 temperatures down to -30 C over northern NY on Friday night. Could we be looking at temperatures down to 0?  What a crazy weather pattern. This shot of frigid are is followed by another storm passing to our west and temperatures back up to 60 or higher. 

49 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Quite the airmass change coming up. 70s to 20s...impressive.

 

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8 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

The 12Z GFS is forecasting 850 temperatures down to -30 C over northern NY on Friday night. Could we be looking at temperatures down to 0?  What a crazy weather pattern. This shot of frigid are is followed by another storm passing to our west and temperatures back up to 60 or higher. 

 

With a lack of any blocking, these crazy swings seem to be endless!

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9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It'll be an interesting evening as we navigate a relatively high risk severe event in WNY completely blind.  The buffalo radar always finds an interesting time to go down.  Kicking it back to the old days when you never knew what was coming.  

Scheduled work or broke?

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For anyone still paying attention to medium/long range models with a slant towards one last shot at winter...the GFS delivers the goods towards the end of next week.  This happens as a strong storm winds up over the upper Great Lakes, and instead of heading due east and weakening beneath the shield of Canadian cold, it continues to strengthen and head north towards Hudson Bay.  This in turn drives warm air way up north toward Greenland, and then boom...we have a significant block in the North Atlantic.  This keeps a cold cyclonic flow over us for several days with likely lake effect snow and synoptic storm chances.  

But....Canadian and Euro show a continuation of what we've seen ALL winter.  The Great Lakes storm shuffles off to the east, Quebec stays cold, we get a brief cold shot, and then the warm air comes right back in.  I give it one or 2 models runs tops before GFS flips to the Canadian and Euro set-up.  

Rambling further...I think what's really hurt us in WNY this winter has been an absence of any jet stream amplitude to our north.  Not even major blocking...just something to shuffle the deck once in a while.  Even while we've basked in 40...50...60...even 70 degree warmth since January 1, I've noticed you don't need to go far, if at all, north of Lake Ontario to find sub freezing temps and snow pack.  Winter has been pretty constant not more than 100 miles north of the Niagara Frontier.  So close yet so far from having a really good winter this year...  

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Insane winds here in Buffalo. Just heard a loud boom and my 150 pound grill just blew over. Picked all that mess up then let the dogs out into the fully fenced back yard... or so I thought. A 16 foot section of fence blew down, and this was a recently built wooden fence that got the entire fence part ripped right from the 4"x4" post screwed with 3" wood screws. Luckily only one dog got out and we found her a half a block away just standing looking confused and scared. I don't know if I've ever heard the wind roar the way it has here tonight. Shockingly still have power but wouldn't be surprised at all if we lose it. 

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6 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

For anyone still paying attention to medium/long range models with a slant towards one last shot at winter...the GFS delivers the goods towards the end of next week.  This happens as a strong storm winds up over the upper Great Lakes, and instead of heading due east and weakening beneath the shield of Canadian cold, it continues to strengthen and head north towards Hudson Bay.  This in turn drives warm air way up north toward Greenland, and then boom...we have a significant block in the North Atlantic.  This keeps a cold cyclonic flow over us for several days with likely lake effect snow and synoptic storm chances.  

But....Canadian and Euro show a continuation of what we've seen ALL winter.  The Great Lakes storm shuffles off to the east, Quebec stays cold, we get a brief cold shot, and then the warm air comes right back in.  I give it one or 2 models runs tops before GFS flips to the Canadian and Euro set-up.  

Rambling further...I think what's really hurt us in WNY this winter has been an absence of any jet stream amplitude to our north.  Not even major blocking...just something to shuffle the deck once in a while.  Even while we've basked in 40...50...60...even 70 degree warmth since January 1, I've noticed you don't need to go far, if at all, north of Lake Ontario to find sub freezing temps and snow pack.  Winter has been pretty constant not more than 100 miles north of the Niagara Frontier.  So close yet so far from having a really good winter this year...  

If you're using this map as reference it's wrong. I believe it defaults to the green for all of Canada, it's really only accurate for the U.S. Temp anomalies have been insane across Canada for nearly the entire winter.

http://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/nohrsc_full_sd.png

 

Image result for february 2017 temperature anomalies

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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If you're using this map as reference it's wrong. I believe it defaults to the green for all of Canada, it's really only accurate for the U.S. Temp anomalies have been insane across Canada for nearly the entire winter.

http://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/nohrsc_full_sd.png

No, I look at this one.  My guess is the warmer than normal temps in eastern Canada led to higher than normal snowfall.  They can afford to be +5 or more in temps and still get mostly snow.  

 

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

 

ims2017056_usa.gif

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8 hours ago, champy said:

Spotted Salamander migration already last night in CNY....:blink:

33205731305_c743e50eb8_b.jpg

32361220634_494a9b7e06_b.jpg

Too bad that little guy got a rude awakening this morning! SYR 4PM yesterday - 68 degrees, 7AM this morning - 20 degrees! Almost a 50 degree drop in 15hrs.

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22 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If you're using this map as reference it's wrong. I believe it defaults to the green for all of Canada, it's really only accurate for the U.S. Temp anomalies have been insane across Canada for nearly the entire winter.

http://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/nohrsc_full_sd.png

 

Image result for february 2017 temperature anomalies

Interesting how cold western Canada and pretty much all of Europe except Scandinavia have been, though.

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12 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Interesting how cold western Canada and pretty much all of Europe except Scandinavia have been, though.

And much of Greenland as well. When it's abnormally warm in one place, it's usually abnormally cold in another.

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10 hours ago, vortmax said:

And much of Greenland as well. When it's abnormally warm in one place, it's usually abnormally cold in another.

I've been checking the forecasts for the high arctic too. It's brutal up there currently, with daytime highs between 6 and 8 degrees Celsius below average. Take a look at the forecast for Resolute in Nunavut.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

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On 2/28/2017 at 0:20 PM, CNY_WX said:

The 12Z GFS is forecasting 850 temperatures down to -30 C over northern NY on Friday night. Could we be looking at temperatures down to 0?  What a crazy weather pattern. This shot of frigid are is followed by another storm passing to our west and temperatures back up to 60 or higher. 

 

Hit this one. Had 2 degrees at my house this morning with reports of 0 and below in the area. After a warmup back into the 50s we cool down and a couple of systems pass just to our south next weekend. The trouble is this time of year 850s of 0 to -5 doesn't insure snow at the surface with insolation warming the boundary layer. From here on out we have to enjoy any system in the present as any snow accumulation is going to get blown away as soon as the sun comes out. 

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