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53F here in 'Cuse...i feel like we are getting a bit ripped off that its not warmer....its nice though and getting sunnier after a decent thunderstorm rolled thru this morning around 8 a.m.  at this point...the snow and cold can stay away from here on out.  But that won't happen.

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Latest gfs/ggem over the next 10 days..(pictured below)

 

The airmass will also
become cold enough to support a modest lake response east of
the lakes, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to around
8K feet briefly. East of Lake Erie expect lake effect snow
showers to peak from late evening through the early overnight
Saturday night across the western Southern Tier and portions of
southern Erie and western Wyoming counties, with snow showers
then weakening by Sunday morning and ending by Sunday afternoon.
Expect total amounts of 2-3 inches across the higher terrain
east of Lake Erie. East of Lake Ontario, expect snow showers to
peak later Saturday night and Sunday morning across the Tug Hill
and portions of Oswego County, with lake effect then weakening
in the afternoon. Expect total accumulations of 2-5 inches east
of Lake Ontario, with the higher amounts restricted to the Tug..
Long term
Following this storm system, model guidance continues to support a
return to winter for Thursday through the following weekend with
temperatures returning to at or below normal, and a series of
clipper systems bringing several opportunities for snow and lake
effect snow.


IMG_0703.PNG

IMG_0704.PNG

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I was in Utica earlier this afternoon. The temperature on my car thermometer was around 70 in Utica but started climbing as I drove west. The max I saw was 78 between exit 34 and 34A. As I drove up 481 then 81 towards Brewerton the temperature slowly dropped until it hit 62 as I approached exit 31 on 81. Coming off the ramp the thermometer literally crashed 6 degrees to 56. By the time I got to my house which is near Oneida Shores Park the temperature on my home thermometer reads 52. It's amazing how much colder the air coming off Oneida Lake is. We are always colder this time of the year in our little micro climate. 

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On 2/22/2017 at 5:16 AM, CoraopolisWx said:

Do you have a link to that chart and map, I'm having a tough time finding it.

Or is it a paid product?

I'll be a bit more clear.

That snowfall to date(running tally) chart and map came from NOAA's website.

What I would like to know, is were on NOAA's site said map and chart are located.

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7:30am on February 25th and it's 62 out, WTF is wrong with that picture. This weather this winter has been so screwed up. 

Yesterday at my house here in Hannibal it was 59 left and went to Oswego it was 41 there, what a difference in about 10-12 miles. All being next to the cool lake ontario. 

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Oneida Lake is exerting it's effect, although a lot more localized than Lake Ontario. When I woke up at 6 my thermometer read 58. Over the next couple hours the temperature dropped to 52, probably because winds died down and allowed the cold air over the lake to spread out. I'm about a quarter of a mile from the lake. 

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That was pretty impressive.

1.2 inches of rain in just over an hour.  Still raining. More standing water in my yard than I have ever seen, and now a flash flood warning from NWS for our area.

Lots of lightning too, and pea sized hail.  Only moderate winds (guesstimate gust to max 40), at least one maple tree blowdown in our woods.

 

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NWS has "around" 2" in the forecast through tonight from some light lake effect...With a better shot at accumulating snows at the end of the week..

 

Upper trough digging into the Great Lakes will send 850 mb
temperatures down into the negative teens celsius later Thursday
through Friday. This will bring a threat for accumulating lake
effect snows, especially Thursday night through Friday night for
favored west-northwest flow areas. High pressure begins to
build into the area Saturday.

Gfs has a favorable wind direction but dry as a bone..

IMG_0706.PNG

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Nice snow falling for last 30 minutes or so. Nice solid coating on the grass. More than I thought I'd see which is sad considering I'm excited for a coating of snow in February in Buffalo,NY. After almost 75 degrees yesterday in Hamburg, 30F , 50mph winds, and a wind whipped snow sure is a hard slap in the face, but one I'll gladly take lol.

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We ended up with 2.6" of rain in about 3 hours - lots of it in a 1 hour period - on already saturated ground in NW Delaware County.  Lots of unwanted water in our basement and minor flooding throughout the area including driveway and road shoulder washouts.  Water flowing over the farm fields everywhere!  The pond at my parents was overflowing in several places so we had to dig out an additional emergency overflow.  Not exactly the kind of February weather we expected....though it did end in snow and the ground is now white except for the area that are still flowing water.  

We have a great representative picture of our sled trail that was in primo condition 1 week ago and turned into a steep river yesterday.  

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