Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 NAM and RUC models show a decent deformation signature tomorrow over CNY out to ROC so maybe we pick up a couple, few extra inches if that materializes. The slp is modeled to deepen and slow down in the NY bight so we'll see how far back it throws the serious precip or where banding occurs. From what I can tell, models seem to indicate banding between SYR and ALB, like say UCA to Oneonta region, based on higher qpf's. Of course, no idea if that is SN or junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Yeah this event is in its infancy no doubt. We're gonna see snow but I really don't wanna waste too much precip on the works, but its lookin like at least a few hrs of slop is inevitable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah this event is in its infancy no doubt. We're gonna see snow but I really don't wanna waste too much precip on the works, but its lookin like at least a few hrs of slop is inevitable! NAM and GFS qpf here are pretty similar by eyeball analysis, around an inch liquid. I just checked my rain gauge, only 0.04"...but I also learned that we are def sub freezing as I almost wiped out on my back deck, which is becoming a sheet of ice. It's elevated though...driveway is just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 You know during a serious snowfall the sky has that Orange tint to it, obviously from the snow falling into it, but when I went out for a smoke, I looked up and saw the lowest deck moving from East to West which looks to me like an old fashioned snow storm at night in the winter. We may have to pray to Lake Ontario once again to get us out of this despicable drought of the golden white stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 lol, my post indicates the same observation. The Cold air is way elevated and needs to drop the next hr or two with some serious returns coming through I hope! Edit: LOL you were talking about your elevated deck, lol, but the pavement is wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: lol, my post indicates the same observation. The Cold air is way elevated and needs to drop the next hr or two with some serious returns coming through I hope! Edit: LOL you were talking about your elevated deck, lol, but the pavement is wet! Yes my back deck which leads to the pool, where my rain gauge is... is elevated and icy af. BTW I checked model text output...NAM has an inch even for KSYR and GFS 0.7 thru 30 hrs...which is basically this storm. Haven't looked at the shorter range models. I still detect just ZR, latest SYR ob has RN/SN mix...I suppose it's possible there's some mix going on but its inconsequential if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I-84 corridor in NY reporting Yuge amts of sleet...2-3". I've seen that much before but I forget where and when. It makes for quite the hellish driving conditions. Not to mention getting your face sandblasted...though I guess you could save on using a razor blade for a day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I wish we had more reports of snow. By more, I mean one. This is getting ridiculous. Upper soundings in kroc all below 0, the surface is 33F at my house and no snow. Just crystal filled rain drops. Of course, the rain just started. But this kinda has a sinking feeling to it. No? Come on guys, somebody tell me they have hazy lights in their yards! LOL Even looking at the radar, it looks like snow over most of Monroe county, it has that grainy look, but nope, it be rain mostly. I think the next 3 hrs are crucial, as a big amount of our total will begin to fall. We just started, so we can waste a few 1/100's on rain- although even that is sacrilege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Still 33 and pouring rain west of BGM. This one just isn't going to pan out down this way. WSW cancel forthcoming. Hopefully ya'll further north will experience better luck. Peace out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Still 33 and pouring rain west of BGM. This one just isn't going to pan out down this way. WSW cancel forthcoming. Hopefully ya'll further north will experience better luck. I wouldn't cancel, it wasn't supposed to change to snow until early morning. There is still plenty of moisture to work with. Cold air advection will begin to take over in the next few hours as winds back and rates increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 No good news here...just rain. My thermometer has been stuck at 32.5 for the past couple hours now, roughly. Although I think it's a smidge colder as evidenced by my icing up back deck. Looks like the precip rate and/or dynamics will not be enough to overcome a warm column for at least a while longer. Fortunately, ground temps have been warmed over the past few days so icing of roads and power lines may not be severe. Once the sun comes up some weak solar heating through the clouds may help keep us from icing too badly given very borderline temps. Maybe we pick up a couple inches of snow in whatever deformation sets up tomorrow. Got to get to bed, work in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Man the euro just hasn't been it self this year, pretty much cut totals in half..Syracuse still gets 0.8" but 1/4" wasted according to the clown maps.. Big props to the gfs, which was the 1st model to jump everything east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 At this point we will be lucky to pick up a slushy inch or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 and just like that- KROC is over to snow. I love the process. I like to watch it happen. Sleet, just streaming down, then, one at a time, fluffy flakes come down like tracers. But slower, thats how you see em. They set themselves apart by their slowness. And then when precip rates increase, suddenly, often on an upslope wind, everything changes to the big wet flakes. Magic. Just magic. I apologize for getting flaky. But I do love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Hey Tim, i bet you'll like this HRR image. Wayne covered with 6" plus. We just went to all snow in Rochester. Really, just a brief period of rain. Hopefully we can get enough precip to come west with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Still rain here, lol, a straight dud and I felt it when it started as liquid while places in CT started as sleet so once again we get the finger, the middle one! I donre with synoptic bull**** in this area. I'll be llookin to move out of this area real soon as we cant even snow when its supposed to. F this, I have better things to do and to think of all the time wasted on tracking this f'in thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Pouring rain turned to dumping sleet at around 2:00 AM in Ithaca. Laying down a nice base for snow if we get any lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Temp has risen a degree so now plain liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Mix of rain/snow here, u can tell it wants to flip so bad as precipitation gets heavier,should be soon hopefully.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 At least no more rain here, now all sleet lol To make matters worse globals are starting to back off the NW flow potential starting Thursday, its more of a westerly flow with a northerly component from time to time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Bgm finally did the honors a few hours ago and across the board for CNY as did BUF... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... All winter storm warnings have been downgraded to winter weather advisories. The transition to wet snow was much later than anticipated and therefore cut down on snow accumulations. The warmer NAM solution was a better forecast than the consensus of all models. Hats off to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Between 1-1.5" of heavy wet slush like snow at this point. I suspect we tap out around 3" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 We poured sleet here all night long, starting about 9 pm. Changed over to snow around 0500. Haven't been out yet to measure but judging by the back porch I think we got about 2 inches of sleet, and it looks like 2 inches of snow now on top of that. What a waste of a storm! With the deformation band over us, if we had any real cold air around we would be measuring feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I just measured 0.6 inch of frozen junk. I don't think we went over to snow until about 5. What a waste of a decent synoptic system! Temperatures were just too marginal so bust potential was high. Snowing lightly now, I'll be lucky to make it to an inch total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 28 minutes ago, cny rider said: We poured sleet here all night long, starting about 9 pm. Changed over to snow around 0500. Haven't been out yet to measure but judging by the back porch I think we got about 2 inches of sleet, and it looks like 2 inches of snow now on top of that. What a waste of a storm! With the deformation band over us, if we had any real cold air around we would be measuring feet of snow. Yeah that's what is most unfortunate about this whole thing. You won't get a better track for a storm across CNY. Just such a waste. It be one thing if this was the result of an early or late season event but middle to late January should be prime time for a synoptic dump. This winter started off so promising too with the unorthodox 30" of lake effect snow at the beginning and BGM set all time record for most snow thru mid December but since then the train has derailed from the tracks with nothing on the horizon through the end of the month unless you live in the typical lake belt east of the lake. Without that early season LES mega storm we would be staring down the barrel of another record POS winter like our E NY folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Managed a full coating here, snowing pretty decent out at the moment, large flakes, probably will end soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah I dont see where they say anything about lowering amounts by quite a bit??? Latest water vapor imagery showing a large storm system over eastern North Carolina. This feature will slowly churn northward along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, while a highly anomalous easterly flow in the low levels will pump a wealth of Atlantic moisture back across our region. The moisture will be lifted by a combination of divergent upper level flow, significant height falls and some weak H925-70 frontogenetic forcing. While this will virtually guarantee that all areas will pick up some precipitation, the challenging portion of the forecast will deal with both precipitation type and overall QPF. Latest regional radar imagery showing the leading edge of precipitation has finally worked its way into the Southern Tier and nearing the Finger lakes. Precipitation type so far across the western Southern Tier still rain, with a mix developing east across the Elmira/Ithaca/Binghamton area. Colder air will continue to feed in from the northeast and a gradual transition over to snow/sleet is still expected. Latest HRRR seems to have a decent handle on current trends. It is not overly impressive across the western half of the area tonight, suggesting a gradual diminishing trend to the precipitation and showing a greater precipitation focus up across eastern portions of the area. Will maintain current headlines as we have in place and continue to monitor trends. Latest HRRR continuing to suggest the potential for decent snows of upwards of 6 inches across the Finger Lakes into the North Country, but probably falling shy of this west of the Finger Lakes. Yeah I definitely see this happening out West. The 3pm WSW text went from 5-9" to 3-6" with a mention of ice at the 9pm update. Clearly they were on to something as Wayne cty is only pushing 1-2" at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I would say we had "dual" winners, that same toasty NAM also had 1.2" of precip, the gfs was 1st to show limited amount of precip, i only had 0.28" in the gauge..This wouldn't of been a big storm here even if we had the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 0.5" snow...0.47" liquid IMBY. Not even an inch of snow. So here's what we learned...when its not cold enough to snow...guess what...it doesn't! At least this will be melted by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Kbuf on the "potential" lake effect event... Our area will be in the active region near the base of the longwave trough, with numerous weak shortwaves moving through the base of the trough. Each of these shortwaves may produce a few light snow showers across much of the region, and will also bring subtle variations to the low level flow, moisture depth, and cold air structure which will impact ongoing lake effect snow. The pattern appears favorable for a very long period of significant lake effect snow starting Thursday night and going right through the entire weekend. Model guidance is in good agreement initially from Thursday night through Friday night with mean low level flow from the west to WNW. This would target the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie and the Southern Tug Hill and Oswego County off Lake Ontario. By Saturday and Sunday model guidance begins to show some spread, with several shortwaves moving through the longwave trough and possibly backing winds more WSW at times. The airmass is not overly cold by late January standards, with 850mb temps starting at around -8C Thursday night and dropping to around -12C over the weekend. Temperatures are fairly cold at 700mb however, and this combined with deep moisture will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to near 10K feet. The favorable instability and longevity of the setup suggest significant accumulations are possible east of the lakes. A comparison of the surface and upper level patterns to our locally developed lake effect analogs show a good match to significant events for the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill/Oswego County. CIPS analogs also support the idea of a significant event. 3-4 day storm totals may very well reach several feet east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from late week into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.