tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Not sure what they are looking at this setup look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not sure what they are looking at this setup look impressive. The city of Rochester hasn't gotten much at all from the last few "impressive" setups. You however are in a much better location being on the east side of Rochester. I've been checking the cams and most times I check during the higher rates I still see grass and pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Alot of those cams are not current. Lol trust me. And roc is actually a bit higher than normal snow this year. Been almost all lake. Roc has gotten a 15 inch lake storm and a foot lake storm and some 3 to 6 inch ones. Sitting at over 70 inches. It's just the nws doest advertise it like when buffalo gets hit. Roc averages more snow than buffalo but the way they forecast you wouldn't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Even though p&c shows 7" for Syracuse.. Likely a technical glitch or website update issue...if that was really BGM thinking they'd haul down watches and adjust the PnC. I just hope we keep racking up the snow in the expected continuation of milder than normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Alot of those cams are not current. Lol trust me. And roc is actually a bit higher than normal snow this year. Been almost all lake. Roc has gotten a 15 inch lake storm and a foot lake storm and some 3 to 6 inch ones. Sitting at over 70 inches. It's just the nws doest advertise it like when buffalo gets hit. Roc averages more snow than buffalo but the way they forecast you wouldn't think so Yeah mainly because it's nickel and dime variety compared to big events. Anyone around this area doesn't need a warning for common 3-6" snowfalls ROC is at 68.2" , 2" above normal. I'm actually surprised ROC and Syracuse aren't having record years. Every LES event has been NW flow, they should be well over 100" by now if the flow aligned correctly. Redfield is on pace to actually beat its highest snowfall total year ever which is insane in an otherwise much warmer than average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 And after a warm up for a week. I bet the pattern goes wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: And after a warm up for a week. I bet the pattern goes wild I agree, March looks much better than Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 70.2 inches and 75 percent of this is lake. Probably have got 15 inches from synoptic. If the storm track was not so crappy we would be over a hundred already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: 70.2 inches and 75 percent of this is lake. Probably have got 15 inches from synoptic. If the storm track was not so crappy we would be over a hundred already As you already stated, it's quite a bit harder to forecast LES for Rochester in comparison to Buffalo. South shore events are just so much harder to pinpoint. They usually end up nowcasting LES events for KROC once they see the band setup to not get location wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Yes it is Much harder because of angle of coastline. Buffalo proper has a very narrow wind flow but when they get it they get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Yes it is Much harder because of angle of coastline. Buffalo proper has a very narrow wind flow but when they get it they get it. They should probably just do LES Ads until the band gets going and upgrade as necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 They do that most of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 52 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Likely a technical glitch or website update issue...if that was really BGM thinking they'd haul down watches and adjust the PnC. I just hope we keep racking up the snow in the expected continuation of milder than normal! On further review...perhaps not a "glitch"...PnC revised downward also. So I'm guessing they drop the Watch tomorrow morning or later tonight and maybe go with Advisory or nothing...the evening AFD still seems supportive of some sort of event. 290-300 flow usually would support higher amts in northern half of Onondaga cty vice southern half but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Guess we'll have to wait and see but it's not like the models look awful.. Rgem(top) and Canadian hrdps(bottom), out to 1pm Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Looks like they updated the map again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I'll be happy with 4-6. Can everyone see this? It shows up when I embed but when I post it switches to the no snowfall expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I'm not sure where that map above is from? This is the snowfall map I got from KBUF's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 They just updated it low and behold roc in 4 to 6 now with entire south Shore covered with 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Looks like my 4 to 9 inches is looking good so far. 3 km nam looks as good as I have seen it all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Yea, 4k is looking pretty good out to Thursday morning so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Step in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: They do that most of time. Tim, I gotta agree with you. If les doesn't involve Buf or it's south towns, NWS Buf kinda goes to sleep. I mean if it's a Buf event they're busy naming towns and timelines in the disco. If it's a Lake Ontario south shore event they hoist and move on. I can't remember them talking in depth about specific timelines and particular suburbs (Webster, Irondequoit, Ontario- do they know about Ontario or Gananda? Lol). But like someone said, we shouldn't need our hand held. We can look at the maps and models and parameters ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Still think it's to conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I'm not so sure I would say this is the best it has looked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I agree Dave but the public doesn't know this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I'd "prefer" the 4k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm not so sure I would say this is the best it has looked lol Maybe not for you but the overall look is better of what I think will happen on South shore. Dave can you check the hrrrx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tim, I gotta agree with you. If les doesn't involve Buf or it's south towns, NWS Buf kinda goes to sleep. I mean if it's a Buf event they're busy naming towns and timelines in the disco. If it's a Lake Ontario south shore event they hoist and move on. I can't remember them talking in depth about specific timelines and particular suburbs (Webster, Irondequoit, Ontario- do they know about Ontario or Gananda? Lol). But like someone said, we shouldn't need our hand held. We can look at the maps and models and parameters ourselves. Impossible to differentiate townships in nw flow events off Ontario. The bands could setup anywhere from Niagara county to the tug on nw flow events. With a w/sw flow it's obvious who gets hit. There is no guess work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Pattern suggests a general 6 to 12 north of thruway. More north less south. This will be lake enhanced not pure lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Hrxxx shows nothing. 1-2" for everyone. It only goes out until tomorrow at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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