wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 If u avg out the last 13 yrs of NWS spotter reports out of Fulton the avg is near 190.. Places like little falls avgs around 78" not 100-120, terrible map lol After Wednesday I may have half my seasonal snowfall within the 1st 2weeks of Feb unfortunately they did away with a lot of the "winter summary" page ...2013-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Watches coming out.. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and Oswego counties. * TIMING...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * LOCATIONS...Oneida, Onondaga and Madison counties. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow along with blowing and drifting snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 5 to 10 inches possible. The heaviest snowfall may occur in the higher terrain in Onondaga and Madison counties and in Oneida County from Camden through Rome to Waterville and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1st map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Buffalo is a joke no watch for rochester again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Been doing this for years. Not even a hazardous weather outlook. Even there own map that is wrong there should be 6 to 8 all the way back to niagra County. But they show 6 to 8 in new monroe Webster Penfield area and no watch. That area is high population too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Kbuf For those of you that enjoy winter and all it has to offer...you may want to savor these next few days as a fairly big pattern change is on the horizon. Temperatures will average below normal during this three day stretch...while most areas will pick up at least a coating to an inch of snow. Meanwhile...accumulating to possibly significant lake snows will be possible southeast of both lakes. Lake enhanced snows will transition to pure lake effect with possibly significant accumulations setting up in the snowbelts southeast of both lakes. In both cases...the cap will be in the vcnty of 10k ft with plenty of synoptic moisture to work with through the boundary layer. Microphysically...BUFKIT profiles are suggesting that the dendritic growth zone could be as deep as 5k ft...which would be very beneficial for efficient snow making and higher end snowfall rates. The snow off Lake Ontario will likely have an upstream feed from Georgian Bay as well. Have thus decided to issue a lake effect snow watch for this period for sites southeast of both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Off to a Good start on the Hi Rez NAM products, even though they have a weird look to them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I always thought watches and warnings were for the laymen. I don't need the NWS to put a watch or advisory out to make me happy, I can look at the models and make a good assessment of the pattern or storm system. Now if the NWS does put out a warning, it a nice confirmation that what I am seeing jives with what they are seeing, but it isnt necessary. You guys constantly rail on how bad the NWS in buffalo is, but when they don't put a watch up you cry. Who cares what they put up, people of our interest and intelligence don't need the NWS to help us understand the weather. Stop worrying about who gets the useless warnings and just study the models and enjoy what you get. That said, its a decent setup for the South shore. Certainly not a blockbuster but 3-5 seems reasonable. After that, looks like we can put away the shovels for a good 10 days or so....yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Meanwhile it's 40F and sunny here in Buffalo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. Looking for a new job and I may end up in the area. I can't make the same mistake I did by moving to my current location (if I can help it) Trying to find the sweet spot wx wise. I know y'all do severe pretty decently too with those fronts dropping down in the summer. ALB itself averages about 61" a season, which is significant unless you're from a lake effect town. Once you get to northern Clifton park through Saratoga and Glens falls, averages sneak up to 65-70". Same if you go out to Western areas of Schenectady and Rotterdam towards the Mohawk valley. Snow cover also gets better as soon as you get out of the immediate ALB urban area, even in relatively lower elevations. Hill towns West and East of Albany average closer to 80", if you're willing to live there. I always joked that if they stuck the official snowfall measurement on Thatcher park, it would be like the difference between downtown BGM vs their airport. The worst snow location in ENY is not Albany OR Troy. It's South of Albany IN the Hudson valley, and North of Troy in southern Washington county or northeastern Rensselaer county (big shadow area. Much worse than anything Albany ever experiences). South of Albany your average drops from 61" quickly through the 50's and down to around 40" by Poughkeepsie. Like I said though it's all relative. If you're used to 20-40" a year, Albany will seem like the Arctic. If you're used to 100-200" then not so much. I have quite a bit to say about local geography and climatology, but I'll leave it at that for now. If I can find my old map of ENY snowfall averages I'll post it again. Feel free to ask any other questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks! I'll definitely have more. Do you find that the majority of snow accumulation in the hills just west of Albany are more coastal driven or LE driven? It can be a mix of both. When I lived in western Schenectady county, we saw many rotting lake effect bands making their way down the MV. In terms of sensible weather, it meant adding a bunch of .10 or .20" to totals... Which adds up some, but it's hardly noticable to most. The highest pure lake effect that I experienced there was 4-5", but those are not common. The majority of snow in ENY is from clippers and coastal storms. Coastals have been hard to come by the past few years, as they've tended to just miss us to the east, and hitting Concord and Worcester (both of which have similar averages to ALB). The hills cash in on their elevation mostly during early season storms and late season storms when marginal temps make a bigger difference. Mid winter (such as these past two storms), the differences are not as noticable. They also do a better job of keeping snow cover throughout the winter so the depth will usually be much deeper in those areas. I should add, the few times Albany is shadowed is with coastals on a screaming East wind. The hills West of Albany cash in on those too. Most storms see a more northerly or northeastern wind, mitigating shadowing issues (for ALB that is, still can be an issues further northeast in Washington and Rensselaer counties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This period can be summed up in three words...Above Normal Temperatures. Countless Pacific shortwaves within the strong east Asian jet will mercilessly beat down/displace the western ridge in the days leading up to this period. This will lead to general ridging over eastern half of the country...with the boundary layer being dominated by air of Pacific origin. The result will be a modification in our temperatures to above normal levels. ... Looking further down the road at the remainder of the week... There is a strong suggestion by many of the medium range ECMWF and GFS ensembles that a Rex block will develop over central Canada. If this were to verify...a deep Pacific flow would remain in place on the equatorward side of this block...keeping temperatures well above normal across the Lower 48. It is not an understatement to say that winter will take a hiatus for the weekend well into (and possibly through) the new week. Feel pretty good that Rich won't have to use this avi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, WNash said: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This period can be summed up in three words...Above Normal Temperatures. Countless Pacific shortwaves within the strong east Asian jet will mercilessly beat down/displace the western ridge in the days leading up to this period. This will lead to general ridging over eastern half of the country...with the boundary layer being dominated by air of Pacific origin. The result will be a modification in our temperatures to above normal levels. ... Looking further down the road at the remainder of the week... There is a strong suggestion by many of the medium range ECMWF and GFS ensembles that a Rex block will develop over central Canada. If this were to verify...a deep Pacific flow would remain in place on the equatorward side of this block...keeping temperatures well above normal across the Lower 48. It is not an understatement to say that winter will take a hiatus for the weekend well into (and possibly through) the new week. Feel pretty good that Rich won't have to use this avi I don't, cause he will be, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 We have a pool of warmth, for 4 days, entering an ocean of Cold that will last through Morch and April, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 It does look to be a wicked march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Euro looks tasty at day 9 and 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 39 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro looks tasty at day 9 and 10 Define 'tasty'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Storm on coast cold over ny state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 My forecast for event tomorrow eve through Thursday night is 4 to 9 inches Orleans County to Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Looking at vis sat this is one nasty looking short wave dropping out of ontario headed into easter ny. Goin to be some nasty squalls ahead of cold front. Looking very good for entire south Shore after front goes through. Lots of moisture spinning around as low blows up in Gulf of main. A bit colder than last event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 hours ago, WNash said: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This period can be summed up in three words...Above Normal Temperatures. Countless Pacific shortwaves within the strong east Asian jet will mercilessly beat down/displace the western ridge in the days leading up to this period. This will lead to general ridging over eastern half of the country...with the boundary layer being dominated by air of Pacific origin. The result will be a modification in our temperatures to above normal levels. ... Looking further down the road at the remainder of the week... There is a strong suggestion by many of the medium range ECMWF and GFS ensembles that a Rex block will develop over central Canada. If this were to verify...a deep Pacific flow would remain in place on the equatorward side of this block...keeping temperatures well above normal across the Lower 48. It is not an understatement to say that winter will take a hiatus for the weekend well into (and possibly through) the new week. Feel pretty good that Rich won't have to use this avi He should start using it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 7 hours ago, Stash said: ALB itself averages about 61" a season, which is significant unless you're from a lake effect town. Once you get to northern Clifton park through Saratoga and Glens falls, averages sneak up to 65-70". Same if you go out to Western areas of Schenectady and Rotterdam towards the Mohawk valley. Snow cover also gets better as soon as you get out of the immediate ALB urban area, even in relatively lower elevations. Hill towns West and East of Albany average closer to 80", if you're willing to live there. I always joked that if they stuck the official snowfall measurement on Thatcher park, it would be like the difference between downtown BGM vs their airport. The worst snow location in ENY is not Albany OR Troy. It's South of Albany IN the Hudson valley, and North of Troy in southern Washington county or northeastern Rensselaer county (big shadow area. Much worse than anything Albany ever experiences). South of Albany your average drops from 61" quickly through the 50's and down to around 40" by Poughkeepsie. Like I said though it's all relative. If you're used to 20-40" a year, Albany will seem like the Arctic. If you're used to 100-200" then not so much. I have quite a bit to say about local geography and climatology, but I'll leave it at that for now. If I can find my old map of ENY snowfall averages I'll post it again. Feel free to ask any other questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 So for the 1st 13 days of Feb...Syracuse is averaging +2.5F thru this mornings Climo report with 26.1" of snow in this period. The 6 people and 8 teeth up on the Tug also got plastered with 4-6' of snow in this period. At this rate, I'd say bring on some more warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Visible satellite from this afternoon showing the very sharp western cut off to the lake effect/lake enhanced snow behind the last system. Buffalo and the Niagara frontier certainly got shafted pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I would say Binghamton lowered amounts some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Even though p&c shows 7" for Syracuse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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