vortmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 KBUF dropped totals quite a bit in their WSW & WWA messaging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Temp down to 33.4 as RH is up to 89% with onset of RN-...with dewpoint, Td, around 28 earlier and T of 35...the two will meet somewhere in the middle as the column moistens, I think closer to the air temp than original dry Td. Like I said, I used to be able to figure this stuff out easily but I've forgotten.. Too much electrical engineering displaced those brain cells. And I'm lazy. My guesstimate is we end up with T and Td around 32.5 with RH at >95%... We just hit 32f with a dp of 28 so we should end up right around 30-31 so it'll be interesting to see where we end up at. fzrn now with flakes mixed in at times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: KBUF dropped totals quite a bit in their WSW & WWA messaging... Thank God I don't follow KBUF, lol. What was their reasoning but Ill just read it, no worries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: IIRC the biggest recent synoptic storms have mostly favored WNY relative to CNY, with a few exceptions like the February 2014 storm that slammed the Mid Atlantic and ENY but came further north than expected and dropped 8-12 across the southern tier and lower Finger Lakes when only 2-4 had been forecast. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-February_2014_North_American_winter_storm I think u are right...that wiki article listed Syracuse with a paltry 5.4" but I thought we squeaked out a tad more. I think maybe some LES after got us up closer to, or into, double digits. That storm was another disgusting P.O.S. from my perspective. I lived in SECT for the better part of 2 decades and other than the winter of 95/96, couldn't buy a decent snowstorm it seemed, at least near the coast. A few years after I left, Blizzards are routinely pummeling SNE seemingly every winter while BGM to ALB get shafted like they are Los Angeles in a 10 year drought. I'm exaggerating a bit...but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Still pretty much the same imby, just took away the 8"-12" in eastern oswego co.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, Syrmax said: I think u are right...that wiki article listed Syracuse with a paltry 5.4" but I thought we squeaked out a tad more. I think maybe some LES after got us up closer to, or into, double digits. That storm was another disgusting P.O.S. from my perspective. I lived in SECT for the better part of 2 decades and other than the winter of 95/96, couldn't buy a decent snowstorm it seemed, at least near the coast. A few years after I left, Blizzards are routinely pummeling SNE seemingly every winter while BGM to ALB get shafted like they are Los Angeles in a 10 year drought. I'm exaggerating a bit...but not much. Yeah, I remember growing up in the 90s and 00s the interior would regularly get crushed while coastal regions got the shaft; everything changed starting in 2009-2010 which had 4 big winter storms, all but one of which (the snowicane) clobbered the mid atlantic and the coast at the expense of the interior. Since then the big cities have repeatedly cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Yeah I dont see where they say anything about lowering amounts by quite a bit??? Latest water vapor imagery showing a large storm system over eastern North Carolina. This feature will slowly churn northward along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, while a highly anomalous easterly flow in the low levels will pump a wealth of Atlantic moisture back across our region. The moisture will be lifted by a combination of divergent upper level flow, significant height falls and some weak H925-70 frontogenetic forcing. While this will virtually guarantee that all areas will pick up some precipitation, the challenging portion of the forecast will deal with both precipitation type and overall QPF. Latest regional radar imagery showing the leading edge of precipitation has finally worked its way into the Southern Tier and nearing the Finger lakes. Precipitation type so far across the western Southern Tier still rain, with a mix developing east across the Elmira/Ithaca/Binghamton area. Colder air will continue to feed in from the northeast and a gradual transition over to snow/sleet is still expected. Latest HRRR seems to have a decent handle on current trends. It is not overly impressive across the western half of the area tonight, suggesting a gradual diminishing trend to the precipitation and showing a greater precipitation focus up across eastern portions of the area. Will maintain current headlines as we have in place and continue to monitor trends. Latest HRRR continuing to suggest the potential for decent snows of upwards of 6 inches across the Finger Lakes into the North Country, but probably falling shy of this west of the Finger Lakes. Yeah I definitely see this happening out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Trends look better for roc with short term models for roc then nws lowers totals. Give me a break. I say 5 to 7 Monroe Livingston ontario Wayne counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Kbuf from earlier this evening.. Latest HRRR seems to have a decent handle on current trends.. Latest run is the wettest so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I said KBUF is sometimes off their rocker with their trends and stuff. one model run is NOT a damn trend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Freezing rain in Lansing. Stepped out on my deck an nearly lost my footing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I have seen nam be good in its longer rang only to change in mid range the revert back to original thought in short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 we have gone from 0.2" to 0.7" over the last 4-5 runs on the hrrr, to me that is a trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: we have went from 0.2" to 0.7" over the last 4-5 runs on the hrrr, to me that is a trend lol they lowered amounts, they didn't raise them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 talkin about KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Gotcha, still the same 6"-8" here, would be fine with me..Time for work, have a goodnight guys, will update throughout the night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I have found a serious bias or lack of forecasting if kbuf proper is not in the game for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: I have found a serious bias or lack of forecasting if kbuf proper is not in the game for snow So true. Turns out they're snow weenies just like us! Love the trend on HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Seems to show a deformation band for several hours over roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Well, still RN- here just North of the SYR...humidity 94% and Temp down to 32.5... about where I figured it would end up. Maybe we lose a little bit more temp if precip rate picks up. So far just light liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Someone who's knowledgeable with soundings please tell me how is this Rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, Syrmax said: Well, still RN- here just North of the SYR...humidity 94% and Temp down to 32.5... about where I figured it would end up. Maybe we lose a little bit more temp if precip rate picks up. So far just light liquid. dp's are still in the upper 20's Bri, according to the meso analysis so they may slip a degree or two further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Someone who's knowledgeable with soundings please tell me how is this Rain?? If I'm reading that time stamp correctly that is for 15z Tuesday or 10am tomorrow morning, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 the 850mb LVL is definitely concerning as were advecting warmer air from the SE but it looks like that ends by 06Z or so. I will laugh my arse off if we stay liquid, lol!! Bust of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 yes that is 10am tomorrow and that sounding clearly shows snow at all lvl's but the lower right hand corner shows its best guesstimate of the precip that should be falling and it shows rain and its WRONG!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just for kicks. The 11pm obs at Morristown NJ has SN- and 36/36 for temps. That Might be wrong though as every other NJ station in NWS text report has RN. I haven't lurked the NYC thread to see if anyone reporting SN down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 This is 05Z sounding from pivotal wx This is a SN sounding but it says Freezing rain so we'll see, with a temp of 31! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I just scoped the NYC thread, looks like interior NJ and southern Ny getting quite a bit of IP and some sections ZR. Even down into the city had some PL but I think the city has changed over. Quite a plume of moisture developing and pointed in our general direction. The dry air here has been tenacious though. This is an interesting biatch of a storm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 This is definitely concerning to me unless it gets washed out from the heavier echoes but that glob of red in ECNY looks like its headed right for us. Someone said it was snowing in Norwich and if thats the case, their right under that +2 and their snowing under heavy returns so..... I trying to find every way this system can screw us, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The atmosphere about a mile high is really screwed up right now with all different BL profiles. In PA the 850's are -3c but their surface temps are in the mid 30's with rain. Its just a real bad airmass for snow, its that simple even with an ideal HP to our NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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