Syrmax Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That slug of moisture Bri has broken up into smaller clusters of showers so its definitely not what it was an hr or 2 ago. I'm still confident things start rockin and rollin around here real soon! We'll see. The coastal better start cranking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We'll see. The coastal better start cranking though. Your tellin me, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 HRRR has snow blossoming over us in the next hour or so and lasting through most of the night. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 That dry slot has almost made it to Boston. I'd imagine when we see the Coastal start to crank the some of that H700 moisture may start to retrograde a bit but that's far fetched TBH! These eyes are telling me we're cooked and from here on out we'll see periods of -sn throughout the night with blowing and drifting but I think what we were expecting is just not going to happen, but that's just me. I know I'm being a Debbie but I just don't see anything to raise my excitement. In 1/2hr this batch of showers will be exiting East of the area as we await the next batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Your tellin me, lol! i think part 2 of this event is iffy. We may squeak out another 3 or 4" around here but...My biggest concern was the coastal taking too long to bomb out and being too far N&E. Relying on lake enhancement with a disappearing precip shield seems like a losing prop. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Everything looks like it is a bit further to the N&E but I may be wrong but with that dryslot just about making it to the SNE coast in an hr or so and then their done unless we see a blossoming area of precip but it nowhere to be found as of yet. I saw the HRRR as well and it does have precip blossoming in about an hr or so and the 18Z GFS has about the same. Haven't checked the NAM yet. So we'll wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On a happier note, looks like BOX has hauled down the Blizzard Watch for the Cape and East Mass cuz...Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If I were KBGM, I'd be thinking about cutting back on that area of 12-18"...like by 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If I were KBGM, I'd be thinking about cutting back on that area of 12-18"...like by 50%. Without a doubt. Wait, they have a 12-18" area? Must be Oneida County and the Tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Wow, for KBGM to have these sort of numbers I wonder what they see that we don't. Very interesting as maybe I am jumping rthe gun and I should see what happens. Either way, I'm content as we have plenty more chances for a blockbuster this yr. Buffalo doesn't think so, lol, But I think we have a better than 70% chance we see one this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Well there goes that slug of showers which dropped a trace, next cluster please. The NE thread is on fire at there are quite a few weenies in SNE so it appears as well as Mets who post regularly which is pretty cool we have a couple now but in the past we had more. They sure are passionate about their snow thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Show about to start for South shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 The over/under number I had in my head before this began was 10 inches. I'm at about 6 inches and it is not a lock that another 4 inches are going to fall overnight. There is moisture streaming SE from the other side of Lake Ontario so it will be interesting to see how that interacts with the upper air dynamics over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 About 8" last time I measured an hour and a half ago. 24" since Thursday, which basically doubled our seasonal total so far. Just beautiful outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Just now, Stash said: About 8" last time I measured an hour and a half ago. 24" since Thursday, which basically doubled our seasonal total so far. Just beautiful outside. Thats awesome Stash! And you still have quite a ways to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stash said: About 8" last time I measured an hour and a half ago. 24" since Thursday, which basically doubled our seasonal total so far. Just beautiful outside. Did you have any sleet or freezing rain mix in today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Show about to start for South shore If you call a 20 minute sn shower the show then yeah but there's nothing behind that cluster Tim unless you see something I don't. I'm trying real hard to find a reason to validate another 6" for tonight but I can't seem to find anything. Man I hope I am wrong but like I said earlier, I'm happy because we have many chances for snow so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If we didn't taint we'd be nearing 10" easy right now if not more with those half dollar parachutes that were falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If we didn't taint we'd be nearing 10" easy right now if not more with those half dollar parachutes that were falling! What are you at right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats awesome Stash! And you still have quite a ways to go! Thank you! For the first time today it's lightening up, and anything else tonight will probably be scattered in nature (unless HVMV convergence sets up again). No sleet or frz rain today; it's been all snow. It has become much more wet as the days gone on however. Maybe that will help it from blowing around tomorrow once the winds start picking up from the departing coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 Grats on the snow fellas. Dusting here today, lots of rain and a really really muddy driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If we didn't taint we'd be nearing 10" easy right now if not more with those half dollar parachutes that were falling! I think we would be 6-8 w/o taint...I had 0.53" Liquid Equivalent earlier...rounding up to 0.60 by now...that's prob 8" at our usual ratios, more like 6" at 10:1 but your point is valid. round 2 getting going now, featuring massive holes in the precip shield and light precip rates, at least early on. Long way to go though. That 1000 MLB slp looks weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 The "second" part of this storm was progged to get going around 10pm - 12am....700 will moisten up, vigorous upper level trough axis sliding through now....still think another 4-7" for us in CNY....but the real story will be the increase in winds....so measuring the additional 4-7 will be tough! Patience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: The "second" part of this storm was progged to get going around 10pm - 12am....700 will moisten up, vigorous upper level trough axis sliding through now....still think another 4-7" for us in CNY....but the real story will be the increase in winds....so measuring the additional 4-7 will be tough! Patience! you got it brutha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 i see it, its beginning to start as that precip over the Lake is headed right for us as the cyclonic flow gets going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Meh....looked a little more in depth....3-5" is probably more like it....ending by 10z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 North of Seneca Falls here, almost in Wayne county. Nothing at all for us here so far. Rain and light snow alternating all day, no accumulation, light rain outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Here we go guys! Whoever is ESE of the Lake should enjoy the lake enhancement that's about to begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Meh....looked a little more in depth....3-5" is probably more like it....ending by 10z.... Your not liking the set-up George? Your thinking 3-5 for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 I'm actually good with that as that would get me to close to 10" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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