Syrmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We're mixing in Lpool George, are you? We have some sleet mixing in at the moment. The taint is here! 29.3 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 All the good ones have some IP mixed in, lol, Im more concerned about that Dry SLot moving in from the West! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 SN with a heavier band about to move north into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Thats the center of the SLP just to our S&W! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Heard pingers all morning and so far early this afternoon lol. Had a brief moment with snow maybe 10 minutes but the rest has been frz rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 13 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said: Alright, here is my first and only pre-start best guess with both ranges and spot forecast amounts. I see most locals staying under 12" with the best chance for lolli's to say 15" being in N NY due to better temp profiles and particularly across the Tug Hill and the south and east facing slopes of the Dacks due to terrain induced enhancement (see purple highlight). So far so good it seems as there hasn't been any noticeable failure in the modeling thus far I don't think. Still think 6-12" is the overall jackpot range across the board, with some lolli's to 15 from the Tug Hill area and across the southern and eastern slopes of the Dacks. For the I-81 corridor areas in C NY, I think the break down will be roughly 50/50 with a 3-6" front end thump of wet concrete and then another 3-6" of wrap-around enhanced powder on the back-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 S+ now with pretty decent snow growth. Guessing about 3" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: So far so good it seems as there hasn't been any noticeable failure in the modeling thus far I don't think. Still think 6-12" is the overall jackpot range across the board, with some lolli's to 15 from the Tug Hill area and across the southern and eastern slopes of the Dacks. For the I-81 corridor areas in C NY, I think the break down will be nearly 50/50 between front end thump of higher qpf but with lower ratios and back-end wrap around enhancement with lighter qpf but higher ratios. Solid map. I also haven't seen anything going "bigly" wrong thus far. If we can scrape out 4-5" on front end we should get to about my 9" target for this storm. Still waging a SN v PL battle here. Currently back to more SN than PL but we've had brief periods of roughly 50/50 or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 There's a break in the precip just to our West, but I think it fills in as it moves to the East. Can't see any semblance of a secondary yet and critical thicknesses are beginning to retreat to the S&E it looks like! Back to more snow vs ip but its back and forth! This should make the snowmobilers happy as this should place a nice base for them to ride on until the next torch to erase it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Mostly SN here now, but light! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Solid map. I also haven't seen anything going "bigly" wrong thus far. If we can scrape out 4-5" on front end we should get to about my 9" target for this storm. Still waging a SN v PL battle here. Currently back to more SN than PL but we've had brief periods of roughly 50/50 or worse. Thanks. Yeah drilling down within the 6-12" range, I went with 8.0 at Hancock airport and slightly higher to the north and east with 9.5 at Fulton and 10.0 at Rome. We are hitting a lull here in BGM with about 4" of wet concrete so far. Banking on the deformation wrap-around to get us to 6.0 down here. Models had BGM right on the southern tip of the solid deformation wrap-around so will see if that pans out or if we just end up with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3.25 inches so far with very little taint right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Thanks. Yeah drilling down within the 6-12" range, I went with 8.0 at Hancock airport with slightly higher to the north and east with 9.5 at Fulton and 10.0 at Rome. We are hitting a lull here in BGM with about 4" of wet concrete so far. Banking on the deformation wrap-around to get us to 6.0 down here. Models had BGM right on the southern tip of the solid deformation wrap-around so will see if that pans out or if we just end up with flurries. 4", not bad. I was down your way yday visiting family in JC and part way up the hill off Airport Rd. It was mid 30s last night when I left there. I'd think Maine and no. Broome cty should end up ok as long as the def zone doesn't disappoint. Back to almost all snow...the Taint appears to be losing the war here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I gotta say, people sure do annoy me when they get the snow blower out for two inches of snow?? It befuddles me!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 4", not bad. I was down your way yday visiting family in JC and part way up the hill off Airport Rd. It was mid 30s last night when I left there. I'd think Maine and no. Broome cty should end up ok as long as the def zone doesn't disappoint. Back to almost all snow...the Taint appears to be losing the war here. Yeah southern Broome near and south of the S Tier Expressway appears to have mostly mixed all morning with only an inch or 2 based on comments I've seen on the internet. The warning for Broome was sort of questionable given that only the rural northern part of the County reach the 7" mark. The most highly populated part of the County in the triple cities area will likely fall well short with 3-4" I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: I gotta say, people sure do annoy me when they get the snow blower out for two inches of snow?? It befuddles me! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk I always laugh during a storm when they show someone in NYC snowblowing a half inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I gotta say, people sure do annoy me when they get the snow blower out for two inches of snow?? It befuddles me! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk I am starting mine up soon. Just to annoy you. Very solid snow now, no taint, dendrite size a bit smaller but rate has significantly improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Straight sleet in the city of Syracuse and Liverpool is about 6 miles north and it's snowingSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: That warm tongue in the mid-levels might last about another hour then I think we switch back over Winds backed north and now snow...dendrites getting big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 This storm will put BGM over the 83" annual average by an inch or 2. Anything we get the rest of the way will be a bonus I guess, though doesn't really feel like an above normal year given we haven't had a consistent snow pack for more than a week or 2 at a time it seems and we also got about 35% of our total in a 3-day event back in November. Sure beats the all-time low of 32" last year, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 All rain in Kroc with a little wet snow mixing from time to time. Surface and upper air likes to keep our valley warm. Its a warm hole:( 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 The hole in the precipitation to our west has filled in. Looks like we're in the driver seat for the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'm a little confused as to why they are holding a warning for Wayne. It's all rain there. And if they're expecting les to make up for it tonight, why do they have 1 or 2" for Monroe lake shore. Just seems bullheaded to hold WSW for Wayne. congrats on the big stuff Syracuse and NNE! Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, rochesterdave said: I'm a little confused as to why they are holding a warning for Wayne. It's all rain there. And if they're expecting les to make up for it tonight, why do they have 1 or 2" for Monroe lake shore. Just seems bullheaded to hold WSW for Wayne. congrats on the big stuff Syracuse and NNE! Looks great. Moderate snow in NW Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Now it's the opposite snow in Syracuse freezing rain sleet in Liverpool what a weird system. The boundary layer must be tainted with warm airSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 After picking up an inch of slushy wet snow in Lansing Ive been in a bit of a snow hole the past hour or so. Hoping to see the radar fill in to my west sooner than later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Snizzle now in LiverpoolSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Snow is still moderate in Brewerton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 We got some of the biggest parachutes I've seen in years pouring from the sky in Amherst. Nice solid coating on everything. Have a hard time seeing us getting to the 3-6" the WWA has us for though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Snow is still moderate in Brewerton. Light to moderate here...no PL attm...dendrite size very small as precip rate has lightened. I checked to see if we were back to taint but doesn't appear so. Interesting event as dendrite composition and ptype has been all over the place. Mercifully, we are not getting shafted like ROC, just unfortunate out there. Hopefully tonight they make up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.