rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 HRRRX 18z for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Were is that from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Riding the edge on this one. Goin to be a now cast event. But these situations tend to surprise especially north of thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Were is that from. If I told ya, I'd have to kill ya! lol. Wxbell Analytics. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Oh nice. Is that for entire storm. Or just lake snow. Is that model reliable at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Haven't looked at p-type yet but this is not what I wanted to see from the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 We just stay all/mostly snow here.. This is only till Sunday night and includes just the primary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We just stay all/mostly snow here.. This is only till Sunday night and includes just the primary.. Is that off the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Correct CNY, here is the finished product, looks like about 10" for the majority of Oswego co.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nice little lolli on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I think we are in good shape here in Oswego co.. Here is the 4k nam, footer for the eastern part of the county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I think the key for KROC is wind direction. If we keep the NE, then we stay frozen. Synoptic moisture would help with the LE as well. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think we are in good shape here in Oswego co.. Here is the 4k nam, footer for the eastern part of the county.. I like the way that dark red area just extends down over northern Onondaga county where I live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3k nam looks just like the 4k..Time for work, good thing I'm off tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nws is calling for up to .33 of ice north of escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Alright, here is my first and only pre-start best guess with both ranges and spot forecast amounts. I see most locals staying under 12" with the best chance for lolli's to say 15" being in N NY due to better temp profiles and particularly across the Tug Hill and the south and east facing slopes of the Dacks due to terrain induced enhancement (see purple highlight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Alright, here is my first and only pre-start best guess with both ranges and spot forecast amounts. I see most locals staying under 12" with the best chance for lolli's to say 15" being in N NY due to better temp profiles and particularly across the Tug Hill and the south and east facing slopes of the Dacks due to terrain induced enhancement (see purple highlight). Looks real reasonable. Your not buying into the nepa higher totals or the south shore higher totals. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Gfs again showing huge storm for upstate day 11 12. Been showing this for days and days. Even euro and Canadian have players on the field at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Hey Dave got latest run of hrrrx snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nws now has a high of 33 tomorrow for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs again showing huge storm for upstate day 11 12. Been showing this for days and days. Even euro and Canadian have players on the field at day 10. Look at the parallel Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 41 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks real reasonable. Your not buying into the nepa higher totals or the south shore higher totals. I agree. Yeah I'm not buying alot of the high totals being pushed by the NWS. The majority of the qpf comes on the front end slug tomorrow between 12z and 0z when temps are most marginal across W and C NY. North of I90 and east of I81 will stand the best chance at sig accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS came in a tick colder as well so that just 8 minutes ago, yuki neko said: Look at the parallel Gfs post it or a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Rgem came in colder after that 18z scare lol Ggem finally came in colder as well..Double digits on almost every model now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah I'm not buying alot of the high totals being pushed by the NWS. The majority of the qpf comes on the front end slug tomorrow between 12z and 0z when temps are most marginal across W and C NY. North of I90 and east of I81 will stand the best chance at sig accums. Good call. SWFE's here in ENY will give you a standard 6-10"...it very rarely deviates any higher than that. Maybe some minor additional accumulations if the MVHV Convergence sets up, but that's about it. Our warning is for 10-14" with a "most likely" of 13" for most areas near here. I am guessing that will be dialed back by tomorrow morning for most areas, unless it becomes more clear that precip will hang on beyond the initial WAA snow tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem came in colder after that 18z scare lol Ggem finally came in colder as well..Double digits on almost every model now.. Yeah when KBGM goes all in them something is definitely on its way, lol! I can't believe we are actually getting a formidable snow storm it actually feels surreal, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Euro came in same or warmer for Roc. This isn't our storm. Syracuse and east still look good. Not a blockbuster, but 6-10. Gnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS 60 hr precip prog Nam at 60hr, wow, continuity is there big time HRRR at 22Z Sunday That is just to 4pm and there's a lot of precip to go! GFS 700H Moisture is pretty much saturated throughout the event Thats an awesome LE signature with cyclonic flow aloft with a predominant NW flow. And that's Monday 06Z, It continues to snow until 22Z Monday, lol. GGEM snow totals. RGEM snow totals Nam 4K Snow Totals GEFS at 60 snow depth. Doesn't like KROC GEFS SNow Depth at 60, however it does not like KROC, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I think I will go 6-10 for areas North of the Thruway including the city of Syracuse. The hills to the South of the Cuse I'd go 8-12 with lolli's of over a foot as well as the Tug Hill should do a little bit better snow wise. If we mix it will be early before the column collapses and we all go over to a thumping snow. Blowing and drifting is gonna get going big time tomorrow evening throughout the night into Monday as the pressure difference between the incoming HP and the developing Coastal should ramp up winds throughout the area. I dont see this as being a classic Nor'easter but I will take what I can get. Good luck to all and may KROC do better than 3", lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Yea not much change in the euro, consensus seems to be right around 1" LE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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