CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Been busy all day, anything change either for the better or for the worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I say Rich (BUF Weather) gets stuck with this for an avatar if last half of Feb is colder than normal. B/c we in Buffalo love Brady so much... absolutely love it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: haha yes! This bet is confirmed with these 2 avatars. I like it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Latest from the NAM products, 12k(top),4k(bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Lake enhancement does it's dirty work on the 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The only issue I see with the lake enhancement is with the 850's as the critical temp for LE is around -11C and we only eclipse that from 18Z Monday to 22Z, lol, so that's my concern as temps really aren't all to cold but maybe with sufficient moisture that's mitigated. Then again this is on the warmest guidance which right now is the gfs I believe. How was the Euro profile wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Living on the edge temp wise along Kake Ontario South shore. Winds progged more NW so it must be temp profile that kills the snow west of Wayne county. Id like to see the models come in just a bit colder. Although they've been very consistent for you Syracuse area peeps! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Kbuf on the lake enhancement Meanwhile east and southeast of the lakes...increasing amounts of lake enhancement will also come into play as our airmass remains moisture-rich while growing steadily colder. Coupled with a well-aligned strong westerly flow that will veer to west-northwesterly over time and the resultant orographic enhancement...this will also result in areas of enhanced snowfall east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario...where nighttime accumulations in excess of a half foot is possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 this is the total precip for both synoptic systems Sunday and Mondays and Wednesday and Thursdays and it looks like across the board 1.5" liq eq which would translate to about 17-18" with ratios just above the 10" avg so this doesn't look that bad. I don't know it the Euro or other guidance sees the other stacked closed ULL dropping out of Central Canada on Wednesday but the GFS sure does, lol. That one is much more tamed, as far as precip goes, as most of that precip comes from the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro gets 850 mb temps near double digits below 0c by around 1am, and it progressively gets colder throughout the overnight.. 18z gfs was colder. Upped precip ants for all of WNY. It did little for total snow but that's not what I'm watching with this marginal a setup. I wish I could find 700 temps. Anytime they stay below -4 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Gfs upped precipitation some and looks a bit cooler, now 1.1" of precip translates to 9"-10" of snow , which is the most it has shown so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, wolfie09 said: Euro gets 850 mb temps near double digits below 0c by around 1am, and it progressively gets colder throughout the overnight.. Okay, so its definitely colder than the GF sS across the board. I guess it resembles the NAM moreso as well as the RGEM so that's solid. With winds cyclonically crossing the open 40F water of lake Ontario, things can get quite interesting quickly just as it did in November. This is quite similar but the duration is a fraction of what that monster was as it just sat and spun for days throwing lobes of H700 moisture our way. That system however had 0 synoptic moisture, well it did but it was of the rn-sn variety then it switched over to mostly when the column became isothermal. I gotts check soundings as this is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs upped precipitation some and looks a bit cooler, now 1.1" of precip translates to 9"-10" of snow , which is the most it has shown so far.. This is without LE correct Wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 700 at hr 24 on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 It covers mostly everything, not sure how much true lake effect we actually see, NWS only has a couple inches for Monday morning then we dry out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It covers mostly everything, not sure how much true lake effect we actually see, NWS only has a couple inches for Monday morning then we dry out.. I'm talking about enhancement as it can really make a difference but can anyone, Dave , tell me if the 12Z EURO has mid weeks event if you have time to check for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Most other EURO guidance are in 24hr increments which tell you nothing, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Rgem looks a little "warmish" with the initial slug of moisture, same can be said for the 4k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem looks a little "warmish" with the initial slug of moisture, same can be said for the 4k nam.. it ticked warmer or much warmer? More mix I suppose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I like it, lol! You getting nervous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 It gets the mix line up to southern Oswego county, by 7pm Ksyr has 3" of snow on 0.6" of precipitation before transitioning to wrap around/lake enhancement overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Primary hold on too long on the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Primary hold on too long on the rgem.. Thats always a fly in the ointment. Very possible to get stuck between primary and secondary along the coast. OTOH could work the other way where coastal tucks in tighter. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Complex low goes over right over us midweek according to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'm feeling oddly optimistic about this one. The roc may have rain for awhile but I'm confident that we will do well on the back end. Secondary low development will make or break us. How are you Tim and Dave feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm feeling oddly optimistic about this one. The roc may have rain for awhile but I'm confident that we will do well on the back end. Secondary low development will make or break us. How are you Tim and Dave feeling? I wanna know what Tim thinks. He's on a hot streak- nailed the last two. Im on the fence. The models not giving me much reason for hope. But it could still go either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It's gonna snow from 0" to 24" that's all i can say lol. I just have this strange odd feeling it's gonna be one of them storms we get hardly anything here in Southern Oswego County, yeah i know I'm not very optimistic but with the way this winter has gone it just fits with what has gone on haha. I haveven seen i don't know how many storm totals and every one of them is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'd say a general 4 to 8 along south Shore with higher totals 5 to 10 miles inland. Would like it a touch colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Looks similar to November storm. But would like see primary low pop sooner and move slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Okay, so its definitely colder than the GF sS across the board. I guess it resembles the NAM moreso as well as the RGEM so that's solid. With winds cyclonically crossing the open 40F water of lake Ontario, things can get quite interesting quickly just as it did in November. This is quite similar but the duration is a fraction of what that monster was as it just sat and spun for days throwing lobes of H700 moisture our way. That system however had 0 synoptic moisture, well it did but it was of the rn-sn variety then it switched over to mostly when the column became isothermal. I gotts check soundings as this is getting interesting.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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