CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12Z NAM looking good for this area. It's bringing a big slug of precipitation through the Finger Lakes and CNY from later tomorrow morning through the afternoon, most of which should be frozen up this way. It continues through Monday morning and we wind up getting over an inch of LE by the time it's done. Maine gets crushed from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Waiting to see the rest of the 12z runs before I take a first and final stab at an accumulations forecast for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Yup i'm waiting for something to go wrong lol Almost every model has Fulton inbetween 1"-1.25" LE, latest RGEM drops about 1.2" or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 How does the Euro look?Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Dude you whine way too much. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yup i'm waiting for something to go wrong lol Almost every model has Fulton inbetween 1"-1.25" LE, latest RGEM drops about 1.2" or so.. That dark orange is over my house I'll go with the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Your really startin to become a Debbie. You already mentioned this several times so it's quite apparent on the board that you expect Summer to begin the second half of Winter so let's wait and see what really transpires. It's not snowing anywhere BUFF, and for you to be complaining in Hamburg is quite hilarious actually. How many foot storms have you had earlier in the yr? Most were WSW SW flow events so you know you cashed in so..... We avg 123 for the yr, and we sit at 7o, in mid Feb. Is Hamburg below avg so far? The Buffalo residents definitely have something to complain about like Ayuud, but for someone who lives in one of the best snow belts in WNY doesn't, point blank! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Me and Vort have a bet though, I'm going to keep bringing it up so I win the bet. =) What is the prize if the 2nd half of Feb is above normal? I say we avatar bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: How does the Euro look? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk 8"+ north and east of a line from Sodus Bay to Ithaca to BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Last nights euro had 1"-1.2" liquid, looked like all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Last nights euro had 1"-1.2" liquid, looked like all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Me and Vort have a bet though, I'm going to keep bringing it up so I win the bet. =) What is the prize if the 2nd half of Feb is above normal? I say we avatar bet! =) Since I'm about 3.5 miles due west of the airport and our snow this winter has been a joke, I fully support your "this winter sucks" perspective. I'm wondering if we end up behind Albany next, if the NE-favored pattern produces. So I have no problem with the likelihood of a warm-up. Even though we have doubtless had the biggest screwjob this winter, it's sad to see other parts of NY desperately hoping for a few hours of fluff, when we all ought to but buried during a weak Nina season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Footer being thrown out on the 3k nam for parts of the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Me and Vort have a bet though, I'm going to keep bringing it up so I win the bet. =) What is the prize if the 2nd half of Feb is above normal? I say we avatar bet! I'm inSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Me and Vort have a bet though, I'm going to keep bringing it up so I win the bet. =) What is the prize if the 2nd half of Feb is above normal? I say we avatar bet! What about if it end up normal, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I say Rich (BUF Weather) gets stuck with this for an avatar if last half of Feb is colder than normal. B/c we in Buffalo love Brady so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 And Freak gets this one if he loses b/c anything less than a 3-5 foot snowstorm in his backyard is just plain sucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Footer being thrown out on the 3k nam for parts of the region.. I'll take that map to verify! I saw KBGM disco reference similarities to the late Jan storm which had ptype and wraparound issues...wasn't that a pretty big #fail for most of us? Not exactly confidence building i'm still leery of this but beggars can't be choosers. It's not like we live in SNE and can pick and choose from a smorgasbord of snowstorms and blizzards to get excited about. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro still looks about the same temp wise, but cut precip generally by 10-20% across the board, even in E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro still looks about the same temp wise, but cut precip generally by 10-20% across the board, even in E NY. I think last nights Euro included the clipper too. Even with the cut, there should still be enough to plow. I could see the WSW downgraded to a high end advisory however, by tomorrow morning. Don't like those bombing lows that far to the east. Off NJ is better here. That said, looks like more snow downstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Actually, could still reach double digits here with climo ratios, though it should be more wet than Thursday's fluff bomb. The snow belts of coastal New England could verify blizzard conditions again from Maine to NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro would be non event for Rochester or Wayne County. I think we see we advisory for continuity but not for amts. For mix and end, etc, blah, blah. Gonna have to get real lucky west of I81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 214 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 NYZ006>008-120315- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.170212T1200Z-170213T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.170212T1200Z-170213T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 214 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Heavy snow...which is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...From early Sunday morning through early Monday afternoon. * HAZARDS...Heavy snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulating 4 to 7 inches Sunday...4 to 7 inches Sunday night...and up to 2 inches Monday...leading to storm totals of 8 to 16 inches. * WINDS...Increasing to west 15 to 25 mph Sunday night with gust up to 35 mph. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * IMPACTS...Heavy snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and deep snow covered roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I say Rich (BUF Weather) gets stuck with this for an avatar if last half of Feb is colder than normal. B/c we in Buffalo love Brady so much... haha! I hate Brady more than anyone on the planet. I feel pretty confident though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: And Freak gets this one if he loses b/c anything less than a 3-5 foot snowstorm in his backyard is just plain sucky... haha yes! This bet is confirmed with these 2 avatars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: What about if it end up normal, lol? Then there is no winner, draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow... BGM going balls to the wall. Warnings now for almost all of the NY zones. Must be all in on the Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I wonder if we can get some better ratios on the backend, NWS bumped most of Oswego co to 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Onondaga... Madison... Oneida... Chenango... Otsego... Delaware Counties in central NY. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and brief periods of sleet. * ACCUMULATIONS...10 to 14 inches of snow. * TIMING...Snow... mixed at times with sleet will move in Sunday morning and eventually change to all snow Sunday afternoon. The snow may be heavy at times Sunday afternoon through Monday morning before winding down Monday afternoon. Strong north winds will develop Sunday night and Monday causing blowing and drifting snow. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make travel very dangerous. Roads will become snow covered and slippery. Expect white out conditions in open areas due to strong winds and blowing snow. Scattered power outages also will be possible. * WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wow... BGM going balls to the wall. Warnings now for almost all of the NY zones. Must be all in on the Euro/NAM. Ballsy. Given the setup. I'm always leery of relying on lake enhancement. But its worked before...:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ballsy. Given the setup. I'm always leery of relying on lake enhancement. But its worked before...:) Yeah both BGM and BUF I think are high. I don't see many locations getting into double digits with this one outside of the higher terrain E of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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