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BuffaloWeather

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
Just now, phoenixny said:

Good one! Not a fan of Accublunder but checking out multiple radars. Binghamton 9 PM obs only have Oneonta and Norwich with snow. 

Accuwx winter radar looks a bit bogus compared to intellicast...esp over CT and PA.  In SNE it shows a classic RN/IP demarcation, accublunder looks a little bogus or more contrived...no way there's a blob of snow on the central CT shoreline on its own.  

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Stash said:

Both of them show me as snow, but definitely a lot of pingers in there. I would say more sleet than anything too. You'll cool down, flip, and end up with more snow than me out this way.

You probably right but I suspect in the end, elevation going to make the diff between 8-10" and oh, 4-7" down here in the lake plain.  Just my guess. Anyone that gets under any banding will also be the winners.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I really dont think elevation is going to be a big player in the event because that's where the warm layer exist between the surface and lets say 3kf or between 925 and 800mb but I can be wrong.  I mean even at 700MB were looking at temps not even below -10C. But we'll see tomorrow when its all said and done. We'll see how Tully fares in this event as well as the Tug.  Unless there's a 4-5000ft mountains in the ares that I don't know about, lol?  dont even think MT, Washington is above 4500ft or am I wrong?

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Down to 33 here but still pouring rain. BGM Airport still sitting at 30 and is reporting freezing rain. I'm getting a vibe that we bust here in BGM with more rain/mixed precip than snow as it seems we are already spending a good bit of QPF as liquid with a changeover to snow nowhere in sight. Would not be surprised to see our WSW get downgraded to an Advisory as our latest statement is down to 3-6 and up to a tenth of ice which is well short of warning criteria for either threshold...

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I really dont think elevation is going to be a big player in the event because that's where the warm layer exist between the surface and lets say 3kf or between 925 and 800mb but I can be wrong.  I mean even at 700MB were looking at temps not even below -10C. But we'll see tomorrow when its all said and done. We'll see how Tully fares in this event as well as the Tug.  Unless there's a 4-5000ft mountains in the ares that I don't know about, lol?  dont even think MT, Washington is above 4500ft or am I wrong?

That's a good point.  With a warm layer, depending where it is exactly...I suppose you could see more junk than snow at elevation, although the hills around here are what...1,200-1,500 ft?  I don't know how that would balance out with this system and the location of the warm layer. I suppose if I hadn't goofed off the past several years and forgot half of what I used to know I could answer that.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Down to 33 here but still pouring rain. Airport still at 30 and is reporting freezing rain. I'm getting a vibe that we bust here in BGM with more rain/mixed precip than snow as it seems we are already spending a good bit of QPF as liquid with a changeover to snow nowhere in sight. Would not be surprised to see our WSW get downgraded to an Advisory as our latest statement only includes 3-6 and up to a tenth of ice which is well short of warning criteria for either threshold... 

In terms of storm total, still expect 6-8+ inches of heavy, wet
snow over our western and northern zones (NW of Broome County).
In fact, if a frontogenically forced heavy band sets up this
evening this could result in rates of 1-2+ inches an hour and
localized storm totals of 10-12+ inches. Snow totals farther S/E
will generally be in the 2-6 inch range. Also, big change with
this update was adding in freezing rain for many areas but think
ice accretion should remain under a quarter inch. Temperatures
through the event will remain in the low to mid 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
 
 
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

That's a good point.  With a warm layer, depending where it is exactly...I suppose you could see more junk than snow at elevation, although the hills around here are what...1,200-1,500 ft?  I don't know how that would balance out with this system and the location of the warm layer. I suppose if I hadn't goofed off the past several years and forgot half of what I used to know I could answer that.

lol!

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This could end up being the best synoptic system since VDAY but my memory is bad but I cant remember anything close to 13" with some added ip as well and that was 07'.  Can anybody remember anything later than 07?

I'm not sure how your area did, but March 11th and 12th, 2014 was a significant synoptic hit for Rochester.  Perfect Storm track from Ohio through Northern Pa.  Buffalo dropped Blizzard warnings for the entire South Shore.  First time in many years. Rochester ended up with 16-18 i think.  

Then there is February 16, 2016 when Rochester got 20 inches.  I think I remember areas just East of kROC were rain or mix though.  

Anyway, The 2013/2014 winter was a real solid winter though, I bet I can find a few more hits in there.  Its not nearly as bad as it seems.  But I'm speaking for ROC, perhaps CNY missed out on a bunch of them.  

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Don't know if anyone else saw the updated version of KBGM's disco, 

No significant changes made to the forecast with precip spreading
northward this evening. The leading edge of the precip...generally
light...is in the form of -RA with a mix of -FZRA/PL/SN. Still
expecting later this evening and into the overnight hours, the
precip to change over to all snow as the influx of deep moisture
continues and the column cools below freezing, making conditions
favorable for either snow or sleet.

Previous Discussion...
Very complex but significant system will impact the area tonight
through Tuesday...

Strong system beginning to impact the forecast area as northern
edge of precipitation shield is pushing into NE PA. The actual
low is still centered near the Carolinas with a strong high over
eastern Canada that is feeding colder, drier air into the storm at
the lower levels. Temperatures currently in the 30s and of
concern, temps already dropping to freezing in places in NE PA due
to dry air and wet bulb cooling.

As we head into this evening, precip shield will move north to
encompass entire CWA. Our forecast models are in overall good
agreement on the big picture of this large storm moving slowly
from the Carolinas northeast to a point east of New Jersey by Tuesday
morning. While cooler air has been filtering in in the lower
levels from the E/NE, concern continues to be warm layer aloft
which will be trying to advect in from the SE. There are small but
very important differences in the models regarding this warm layer
which will have a significant impact on precipitation types...this
continues to make this a very challenging forecast. NAM still the
warmest model while GFS is colder. Gem is in between while some
of the higher res guidance leans more toward the NAM. The
challenges in these temperature profile details will occur in
tandem with the storm spreading heavy precip in the forecast area
for the evening and overnight. Based on the consensus of guidance
and current conditions, best thinking is that roughly the southern
and eastern half of the CWA from Broome County S/E will be dealing
with significant sleet and freezing rain and even rain this
evening that may really cut down on snow amounts before precip
trends more toward mostly snow later tonight. Farther north and
west through the Finger Lakes to Steuben County then NE to the
Tughill is the area we are most concerned about for 6-8+ inches of
heavy wet snow. Even these areas may see sleet and freezing rain
this evening for a time. However, as heavy precip moves in which
will be forced both by strong upper level forcing and mid level
frontogentical forcing this should act to cool the profile in
these areas below freezing changing precip to mostly snow. Winds
gusting up to 35 mph will also be possible with the storm tonight
adding to the impacts of snow/ice...possibly resulting in downed
tree limbs and power outages in addition to dangerous travel

For Tuesday...low moves from east of New Jersey NE to near Cape
Cod by late day. Precipitation will become lighter with time but
continue through the morning before easing in the afternoon west
to east. Still expect the above mentioned areas in the eastern /
southern parts of the CWA may see some freezing rain and sleet at
times, especially in the morning. Otherwise, mostly snow in the
west.

In terms of storm total, still expect 6-8+ inches of heavy, wet
snow over our western and northern zones (NW of Broome County).
In fact, if a frontogenically forced heavy band sets up this
evening this could result in rates of 1-2+ inches an hour and
localized storm totals of 10-12+ inches. Snow totals farther S/E
will generally be in the 2-6 inch range. Also, big change with
this update was adding in freezing rain for many areas but think
ice accretion should remain under a quarter inch. Temperatures
through the event will remain in the low to mid 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not sure how your area did, but March 11th and 12th, 2014 was a significant synoptic hit for Rochester.  Perfect Storm track from Ohio through Northern Pa.  Buffalo dropped Blizzard warnings for the entire South Shore.  First time in many years. Rochester ended up with 16-18 i think.  

Then there is February 16, 2016 when Rochester got 20 inches.  I think I remember areas just East of kROC were rain or mix though.  

Anyway, The 2013/2014 winter was a real solid winter though, I bet I can find a few more hits in there.  Its not nearly as bad as it seems.  But I'm speaking for ROC, perhaps CNY missed out on a bunch of them.  

I remember that one Delta and I believe we ended up close to 8 as I remember KROC getting rocked while we watched, lol!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If it was say, a normal winter with normal temps this system would of crushed us big Time and it would of crushed V-DAY's totals but nah, we have to hope for dynamiclly induced column for snow in mid-January!  We'd be looking at 12-18 with normal ratios of 10-12/1"!

Fake snow will save us this weekend...;)

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Don't know if anyone else saw the updated version of KBGM's disco, 



 
-- End Changed Discussion --

Yeah I foresee them dropping the WSW for an Advisory for much of south central NY with the next update or at some point during the overnight if trends don't change soon. Just don't see how we end up hitting the average of 7" snow or .50" ice thresholds to maintain a warning unless they are trying to justify it as a "high" impact event somehow still. This was a fickle setup from get go and larger than normal discrepancies in the modeling was existent right up until the event basically.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Check out Feb into March 1900. It was a 3 day storm dropped 43 or 45 inches in rochester

check out 66', the Mecca of Lake Enhancement of the millennium 102" fell in Oswego in 2days from first, a synoptic event that dropped close to 3 ft, then came the LE and I can only imagine the sight of mountains throughout Oswego and I can only imagine those totals!!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Yea forecast looks pretty nice from thurs night into sunday morning..

 

Thursday Night
Snow showers likely before 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

Temp down to 33.4 as RH is up to 89% with onset of RN-...with dewpoint, Td, around 28 earlier and T of 35...the two will meet somewhere in the middle as the column moistens, I think closer to the air temp than original dry Td.  Like I said, I used to be able to figure this stuff out easily but I've forgotten..  Too much electrical engineering displaced those brain cells. And I'm lazy.  My guesstimate is we end up with T and Td around 32.5 with RH at >95%...

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Gravity Wave

Gravity Wave

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not sure how your area did, but March 11th and 12th, 2014 was a significant synoptic hit for Rochester.  Perfect Storm track from Ohio through Northern Pa.  Buffalo dropped Blizzard warnings for the entire South Shore.  First time in many years. Rochester ended up with 16-18 i think.  

Then there is February 16, 2016 when Rochester got 20 inches.  I think I remember areas just East of kROC were rain or mix though.  

Anyway, The 2013/2014 winter was a real solid winter though, I bet I can find a few more hits in there.  Its not nearly as bad as it seems.  But I'm speaking for ROC, perhaps CNY missed out on a bunch of them.  

IIRC the biggest recent synoptic storms have mostly favored WNY relative to CNY, with a few exceptions like the February 2014 storm that slammed the Mid Atlantic and ENY but came further north than expected and dropped 8-12 across the southern tier and lower Finger Lakes when only 2-4 had been forecast.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-February_2014_North_American_winter_storm

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