rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow! 0z nam looks horrible. 3 days of melting. Not a single inch in Rochester. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Nam looks colder (but drier), seems to have shifted south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 A bit skeptical on it thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 In addition to questionable thermal profiles resulting in mixing issues and poor snow ratios on the front end (outside of N and E NY), we are also going to have to watch for at least temporary dry slotting with the whole transferring of energy to the coast. The NAM shows areas across the Finger Lakes/Central Southern Tier and also the Hudson River Valley being at least temporarily dry slotted. Definitely a very delicate setup for a lot of the region that has bust potential written all over it unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Who seriously cares at this point? Our best event unfortunately came in November without any stayin power. Well this Winter we really never had a nice sizeable snowpack and I don't expect this fact to change ant time soon, so if it rains, hope its a soaker so as to keep with the pattern, take it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The only favorable place is, not really surprised, is SNE as they have been hot as of late and with explosive development, I think this time around Maine would be more favored to get appreciable snows due ro the latitude at which shes forming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 0z rgem looks pretty good out to 48, surface jumps above freezing for an hr or two but otherwise seems to be mostly snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 56 minutes ago, Stash said: Light snow falling from the clipper now. Finished with close to 14" from yesterday's event, and another Watch up for Sun/Mon. Being further east should help hang on to the cold before the coastal takes over. Still concerned the coastal may develop too late, but otherwise it might be a decent event. I finished with about 20" all of last year, and have had a front row seat to several near misses slamming NE the past several years, so I am enjoying this mini stretch of real winter. Hopefully everyone further west can get some of this and cash in on lake effect too! I feel for Buffalo this year...I'm quite familiar with the what can go wrong will... Good for you Stash! Looks real active for eastern part of NY over the next week. Hope you keep cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 As far as this horrific clipper that's moving through, it sure looked a lot better as far as guidance, but its already over even for us and botgh the GFS and the NAM had at least .5" so I'm quite baffled. It looked like an easy 4-5" biut not this year, unfortunately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 0z rgem looks pretty good out to 48, surface jumps above freezing for an hr or two but otherwise seems to be mostly snow.. any precip data, map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: any precip data, mao? Its at the outer range, so def take with a grain of salt. Its showing quite a bit of accums across the Tri-state area which no other model comes close to right now, soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Gotta love that hole over KROC. Northern Jersey stays snow and we get rain!? No, I'm not buying that, yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Seems like the southern shore counties are on the razor edge right now. 0z NAM wasnt nearly as bad as I feared when I saw Daves post. I still have some hope for at least a wintry mess of some sort. Freezing rain certainly seems like a marginal threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Both hi Rez Nam products look good and it's still snowing..(3k top,4k bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Both hi Rez Nam products look good and it's still snowing..(3k top,4k bottom) Thanks! Reason for hope. We've gotten lucky a few times this year. Irondequoit ended up with 6" last night , by the lake shore. Hope we can do it again. I'll be watching the Euro tonight. I'll post if it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Please do dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 After a warm up week after next gfs has been showing a monster of a storm for days at day 12 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro looks good from this vantage point, over an inch liquid, looks like all snow..Surface gets to 33 kfzy, 34ksyr but 850 mb temps seem a touch colder..Fwiw WB clown map shows 11" for ksyr/kfzy..Most of central/eastern ny are near double digits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 How bout rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 About 3/4" of precipitation in which 3"-4" is snow, r/s line just to the NE, 6"+starts in central Wayne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro actually a tad colder. Kroc on the line. I81 region gets warning levels stuff. Roc bumps up after with enhancement. Its a weird one. Miller B I think. Transfer, kind of. Wish the original would hold and roll through southern PA. Instead it wants to track from Pitt- Syracuse and then skip to Boston harbor and explod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Feb 18-23 is 40-55 everyday. Like I said earlier 2nd half of Feb will be warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Some nice looking lake enhancement on the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Feb 18-23 is 40-55 everyday. Like I said earlier 2nd half of Feb will be warm as well. Your really startin to become a Debbie. You already mentioned this several times so it's quite apparent on the board that you expect Summer to begin the second half of Winter so let's wait and see what really transpires. It's not snowing anywhere BUFF, and for you to be complaining in Hamburg is quite hilarious actually. How many foot storms have you had earlier in the yr? Most were WSW SW flow events so you know you cashed in so..... We avg 123 for the yr, and we sit at 7o, in mid Feb. Is Hamburg below avg so far? The Buffalo residents definitely have something to complain about like Ayuud, but for someone who lives in one of the best snow belts in WNY doesn't, point blank!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Blizzard watches up along the Maine coast and we can't manage a WSW, lol, hilarious. I think I'll subside from having anything to do with KBGM'S site cause it doesn't tell me anything I don't already know. Actually it does the opposite and makes my blood boil. I can see no WSW for the so . tier but not to have one up for Onondaga Madison and Oneida is just downright wrong. No collaboration with surrounding offices, just dispicable!! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Watches went up not long ago, 6"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Blizzard watches up along the Maine coast and we can't manage a WSW, lol, hilarious. I think I'll subside from having anything to do with KBGM'S site cause it doesn't tell me anything I don't already know. Actually it does the opposite and makes my blood boil. I can see no WSW for the so . tier but not to have one up for Onondaga Madison and Oneida is just downright wrong. No collaboration with surrounding offices, just dispicable!! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Dude you whine way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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