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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Euro looks pretty similar to 0z except a degree or two warmer at the surface, the Canadian ggem holds on to the primary to long an shoots the 0c line into the north country, Gfs is borderline at 1st as well with 850s near 0c and 925 MB temps slightly above, still a lot to figure out..Just found out im off Sunday so I'm pretty sure I know how this is going to turn out lol

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WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm
Watch...which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* TIMING...From early Sunday morning through early Monday
  afternoon.

* HAZARDS...Heavy snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 12 inches.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
  Significant blowing snow possible Sunday night and into Monday
  morning.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter of a mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow and blowing snow will produce difficult
  driving conditions with poor visibility and deep snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Medium to High
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2 hours ago, vortmax said:

The lake enhancement will likely be the bigger snow maker with this event.

Yeah i gleaned that looking thru 12z modela in more detail.  Interesting and abates my concern regarding slp being past us...Well, a horse by any other name...if that's the right expression...

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Regarding Sunday's event...my only hope to keep all or mostly frozen precip is that NE flow. There have been a couple of similar events (predicted changeover to rain w/NE flow) that ended up being nice surprises with precip never melting. This event is a close call so it could go either way.

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This is shaping up to be a slop fest across C NY on the synoptic side of the storm for late Saturday and Sunday before it transitions to a hybrid LES situation on Monday, hence why no WSW being posted by BGM. Looks like the thruway offers as a fairly decent demarcation line for the synoptic side of the storm with sig accums a greater possibility as you move further north of the thruway across N and E NY with jackpots in the Tug Hill and Dacks.

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We rain Sunday and most of Sunday night so no slop fest here.  Could care less, as in my mind, Winter is a done deal, as we just wait for this miserable month to be ovyo and move on to Morch.  I never thought here in Syracuse we'd see two yrs in a row with much below snowfall but anything is possible I suppose.  Who'd a thought, SNE would be the new snow Capital of the Northeast, lol!

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41 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

We rain Sunday and most of Sunday night so no slop fest here.  Could care less, as in my mind, Winter is a done deal, as we just wait for this miserable month to be ovyo and move on to Morch.  I never thought here in Syracuse we'd see two yrs in a row with much below snowfall but anything is possible I suppose.  Who'd a thought, SNE would be the new snow Capital of the Northeast, lol!

What are you basing this on? All models show a change over to snow, some earlier, some later. I don't think any show rain through the night Sunday. 

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

What are you basing this on? All models show a change over to snow, some earlier, some later. I don't think any show rain through the night Sunday. 

Im basing it off of the GFS soundings for Sunday into Sunday night.  Yeah they'll be a changeover, but it won't be till about ,25" of liquid gets wasted on rain and slop.  Then after it changes over, but by this time we'll be transitioning into a hybrid LE event but the GFS may be wrong.  In Mid Feb, you cant just look at 850's and assume cause their -3 to -5 it'll be snow.  Maybe the beginning of January you can do that but not mid February, unfortunately!

Show me how it doesn't change over?

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2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

You mean like this, lol. IMG_0511.JPG

 

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

This winter is absolutely unbelievable. I can't wait for it to be over I really can't. Spring can't come soon enough! 

That isn't a "snow hole" that was the radar seeing virga just about everywhere....you see that with synoptic systems as they begin...the beam sees the lowest level near the sight....30 or so miles away and the beam is seeing a slightly higher level....where it is snowing...but even under those returns, it wouldn't be....IOW....you could have moved that radar site 50 miles to the east, and you have a hole around the site, with "returns" over BUF....but just aloft....

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 

That isn't a "snow hole" that was the radar seeing virga just about everywhere....you see that with synoptic systems as they begin...the beam sees the lowest level near the sight....30 or so miles away and the beam is seeing a slightly higher level....where it is snowing...but even under those returns, it wouldn't be....IOW....you could have moved that radar site 50 miles to the east, and you have a hole around the site, with "returns" over BUF....but just aloft....

I thought that might be what it was but then I checked the Montague site and there was no ring around that site so I figured it wasn't Virga at all.

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11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I thought that might be what it was but then I checked the Montague site and there was no ring around that site so I figured it wasn't Virga at all.

Montague is much higher in elevation....thus the site was "in" the level where there was a shallower column of dry air for the flakes to overcome....and there was more moisture in the column to begin with there.....

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It could be S++ with sustained 35 mph winds and KBGM would say stay tuned for any headlines.  They are the absolute worse when it comes to placing headlines up.  I don't care if it snows 2", if it causes problems, then some sort of headline should be used but they just don't understand.  They are there for us and no other reason, but it seems as though, if they don't feel the need to place adv's or warnings then they don't.  This is where KBUF is on the money even though they may be off a bit but at least the public is aware, but not KBGM as they cauld care less unless its a So. Tier situ, then they jump but forget about the northern zones.  Another annoying thing they do is they downplay every scenario whether its Snow or brutal cold or both, but they'd say once again, stay tuned, lol, SMH!!

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Looking back on the LES event last night/this morning, I definitely thought they should have upgraded Cayuga and Onondaga to a LES Warning but never did, and based on 10-14" amounts in Port Byron and Auburn, and 7.5-11" reports in Elbridge, Camillus, and Jamesville, a warning in both counties would have verified. There were also some 4-6" reports in Cortland and Chenango counties but they never added either to the LES Advisory.

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Light snow falling from the clipper now. Finished with close to 14" from yesterday's event, and another Watch up for Sun/Mon. Being further east should help hang on to the cold before the coastal takes over. Still concerned the coastal may develop too late, but otherwise it might be a decent event. I finished with about 20" all of last year, and have had a front row seat to several near misses slamming NE the past several years, so I am enjoying this mini stretch of real winter. Hopefully everyone further west can get some of this and cash in on lake effect too! I feel for Buffalo this year...I'm quite familiar with the what can go wrong will...

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