Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,602
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Strengthening band getting close to Rochester.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20170210.440.024ani.gif

On the infrared Sat you could see the feature that pushes that band South. It looks short live, but again, where that band stops its west shift and stalls and then begins to move east again, will be the winner. I think it looks like NE Monroe and NW Wayne look to cash in. This band has some serious business left in it. I wouldn't be surprised if Tim in Walworth ends up with warning snow. Or an area just to his NE. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Next 84hrs on both GFS and Nam are interesting!

nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

 

gfs_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

 

Im liking the look.  A solid 1-1.25" liq should equate to close to a foot and most of it is from 2 synoptic events, can you believe it?  Better yet, should we believe it is a better question?

At least here some of that is rain, and I believe for your area too. Not a lot but a few tenths of an inch so it's prob more like .7-.8" LE that falls as snow. Still I would take it in a heart beat but count me skeptical.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest from kbuf

 

As the weak sfc low moves across Pennsylvania/southern New York on
Sunday...it will become `captured` by the digging shortwave over the
Upper Great Lakes. The process of this `phasing` of the two systems
will keep general low pressure over our forecast area...with
increased baroclinicity and significant hgt falls supporting fairly
widespread pcpn. Given that there will not be an airmass change...
expect the risk for more mixed precipitation. This will especially
be true for sites near Lake Ontario and across the North Country.
Again...the potential problem on Sunday will not be with the amount
of pcpn but with the type. This could keep slick travel conditions
in place...particularly for the aforementioned areas. Temperatures
on Sunday will largely be in the 30s...although the mercury will top
out within a few degrees of 40 across the western counties.

 

As the very robust shortwave digs from the Lower Great Lakes across
Pennsylvania Sunday night...the phasing of the two sfc features will
become complete as explosive cyclogenesis will take place along the
New England coast. Much colder air on the backside of this newly
formed coastal `bomb` will combine with a deep moisture field to
generate widespread accumulating snow across all of Western and
North Central New York. While several inches of accumulation are
anticipated...there will be the potential for more significant
snowfall amounts south of Lake Ontario from ROC to SYR where lake
enhancement will likely come into play.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strong MJO in phase 8 in the next 4-8 days. Typically affects sensible weather in US about 6-10 day after. That would be a factor against an unusually warm 2H of Feb. EPO looks to go negative in 2H as well. AO looks to stay negative through Feb. PNA looks to stay positive (not as strong as now).

EPS forecast just doesn't add up to me...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS agree. Torch coast to coast

 

Bring it!  With all due respect to the 99.9% of the Northeastern US population that has received one or more significant snow events this year, excluding of course BUF and surrounding northern Erie County, which is in a never ending cycle of warm/mud/freeze/miss snow/rain/freeze/miss snow/warm/rain/mud/miss snow, this winter can go eff itself somewhere on the other side of the globe for the next 2 months.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Bring it!  With all due respect to the 99.9% of the Northeastern US population that has received one or more significant snow events this year, excluding of course BUF and surrounding northern Erie County, which is in a never ending cycle of warm/mud/freeze/miss snow/rain/freeze/miss snow/warm/rain/mud/miss snow, this winter can go eff itself somewhere on the other side of the globe for the next 2 months.  

Couldn't agree more. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS agree. Torch coast to coast

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_46.png

If you look closely, the Northeast is shown at or below normal, which roughly matches yhe extended range models that generally show troughiness in the NE.  Doesn't auger all that bad. If you are looking for a 240/250 LES event, thats always problematic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Snow's picking up here again after a big 1.5 inches last night. Hopefully can pick up 2-3 inches tonight then we'll see what happens on Sunday/Sunday night. 

Same here...id say downtown SYR had 3-4" based on what i was walking in.  Coworker that lives SW of Syr (i think S of Camillus) said he had about 14".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll see what 12z runs show, incl EC, but i'm inclined to take the under for the late sun/mon timeframe. A few inches in CNY seem likely but a bigger dump is going to take some magical timing between the digging no. stream s/w and the departing slp, to capture it in time and sling snow back here.  Central and No. NE and maybe ENY would figure to have best chances.  Who knows, maybe ALB and BTV get reprieves from the multi year shaft jobs...which are way more pronounced than what we've seen in CNY/WNY...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We'll see what 12z runs show, incl EC, but i'm inclined to take the under for the late sun/mon timeframe. A few inches in CNY seem likely but a bigger dump is going to take some magical timing between the digging no. stream s/w and the departing slp, to capture it in time and sling snow back here.  Central and No. NE and maybe ENY would figure to have best chances.  Who knows, maybe ALB and BTV get reprieves from the multi year shaft jobs...which are way more pronounced than what we've seen in CNY/WNY...

The lake enhancement will likely be the bigger snow maker with this event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...