Upstate/Eastern New York

[BGM Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Very nice, as I got just under 2, lol!  Its almost comical now as almost every event finds a way to either rain, or mix and when its all snow, its to either to our NW or our SE, lol, and we just can't seem to break this horrific pattern.  The Clipper tomorrow looks interesting as well but its void of moisture which most clippers are, but it'll keep the ambiance of Winter at least.  I just hope the models trending South for the Sunday and Monday event is refreshing to hear even if it is for only 12hrs until the next model suite. I dont really count in between runs so, but that's just me.

I agree. Euro looks nice esp for NC NY over to E NY, but GFS and Canadian are weaker and warmer and consequently don't dig this as far south as the Euro does, so can't really get hopes up too much at this point. Definitely better odds the further north and east you go for scoring more snow with this one, so not liking my chances down here as much as I would in NC NY or E NY. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

NWS just clipped point and click fcst totals by about 75%. Went from 4-6 to 1-3 for tonight in Irondequoit. I don't like the higher winds. Too little subsistence time over short fetch. 

Lots of time for Sunday's event. Disco gave us the classic 'Stay tuned'

Perfect, as that is exactly how this Winter has been going and continue's to go.  Whatever it takes this year for it NOT to snow, is gonna happen, that's why its just comical to me.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Which model landed today's event along the NE coast because KOKX busted I think with amounts as well as expected Blizzard conditions on LI unless someone has seen otherwise cause I cant find anything.  Some ppl on Social Media have said it feels like one but that doesn't make it one so I'll keep looking.  I know there was a lot of reportings of lightning and thunder throughout CT

SAT_CANE_WVENH_ANI.htmlSAT_CANE_WVENH_ANI.html  

If this had been a slow mover this would of buried NYC but instead SNE does much better as the system has more time to strengthen once hitting their latitude.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Once this inverted trough moves through that's when I think we're either going to see something set up,or we're not, cause if their cutting totals, its not for no reason I'd think.  I didn't notice a change this way YET!

What a perfect looking 850MB pretty much tickling the benchmark but unfortunately its zipping through the Northeast.  Had there been some semblance of blocking, this would of been one for the ages!  I'll tell ya man, SNE every year seems to get more and more snow and not small events either. That's the luxury of living on the Coast but you have to wait till now to see serious snows and by this time its hard to keep it around.  This year we can't keep it for more than a couple weeks if that!

[BGM Blizzard]

BGM for tonight and tomorrow...

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused around the lake effect
snow expected to increase in coverage and intensity this evening and
tonight along the I-90 corridor from near Montezuma and Weedsport
east to Syracuse...and south to Lafayette and Tully. A Lake Effect
Snow Advisory is in effect from 10 pm this evening through 1 pm
Friday for this area.

Quite a challenging forecast for tonight and Friday morning with
potentially significant impacts. There are many different aspects
of the forecast that will determine where the lake effect snow
band sets up and produces accumulating snow in a short period of
time.

Upper trough to the east associated with the coastal low that
brought the heavy snow to portions of srn/central NY and ne PA
earlier today, will continue to slide ewd tonight. As it does a lobe
of Arctic air will be drawn down across the Great Lakes and enhance
conditions within the boundary layer...making it favorable for lake
effect snow. Steep lapse rates within a deep...8kft...mixed layer,
and boundary layer winds from 300 degrees...with a long upstream
lake to lake connection to Lake Huron and Lake Superior will lead to
the development of an intense band of snow tonight.

Short range, high resolution model guidance continues to signal the
development of a narrow band of lake snow from lake
Superior...across Lake Huron and Lake Ontario into central NY
between 7 and 10 pm this evening. There is some indication that the
band will be somewhat transient and not remain steady over the same
area for an extended period of time. Even slight variations in the
wind direction will move the narrow band 20-30 miles. At this time
it appears the corridor between Seneca Falls and Syracuse will be
most favorable for this snow band. One of the uncertainties that may
be concerning is the inland extent of the band. With such a long
upstream connection...there is some concern that the snow may extend
into portions of the wrn Catskills...and the southern tier of NY.
Will need to monitor conditions and possibly make adjustments if
this looks to be the scenario.

The lake effect parameters for this event look favorable for periods
of heavy snow. A saturated DGZ and steep lapse rates in this layer,
along with a weakly sheared environment and a narrow area of low
level convergence to focus the development...snowfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour are likely tonight and early Friday morning.

The location of the band Friday morning is still somewhat uncertain,
but the I-90 Thruway will likely be getting hit somewhere between
Montezuma and Syracuse close to sunrise. Portions of I-81 south
of Syracuse may also be impacted with heavy snow rates Friday
morning. Travel conditions during this time will likely be
hazardous with snow accumulating on roads quickly and low
visibilities.

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I seriously doubt we see more than a few lousy nuisance inches tonight and without any moisture, we might just see less, lol.  How long can a pattern with so many disappointments last?  Its been this way since the end of December and hasn't budged.  I think what really fooled long range forecasters was the enso signature that we entered Novemvber in, a weak La Nina which iss notorious for Cold and Stormy conditions across the Northeast but not this year I suppose.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

lol, right after my post you post that, lol, which I haven't seen yet and sounds quite promising.  But the corridor between Montezuma's wildlife refuge and Ksyr does not include me anyway, lol, but they said it'll be moving around quite a bit and there's no way Oswego County gets no snow as its been a hot spot this year but once again we'll see where it swets up.

[vortmax]

Snow band over Boston means business...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-24

 

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I just checked KBUF's meso models and I don't like my area for potentially heavy snow, and its a strong band with easily 2-3" an hr amounts but the band looks to fluctuate from just South of Syracuse, lets say Lafayette and moves South to about Cortland sticks around for a few hrs then heads back North where it first formed, just South of KSYR.  Obviously that's just one model out of almost a dozen.  I haven't seen the RGEM which is pretty good with LE events but the Meso's out of KBUF are notorious for being to far South but this case it'll be spot on, lol! The HRRR is, I believe, another good high resolution model that catch's on to LE events but I haven't looked to heavily at any others, other than the wrf, nam and they basically show the same wrt band placement.

[vortmax]

Regarding the system on Sunday from BUF AFD:

Thermal profiles will be critical during this time, but for now most profiles would suggest rain for areas south of the thruway, with a trend toward mixed precipitation or all snow closer to Lake Ontario and the North Country. If the precipitation does indeed stay all snow, then there is some potential for advisory level snow of several inches. Both the lastest GFS and ECMWF suggest that the phasing of the two streams will result in rapid coastal cyclogenesis off the southern New England coast Sunday night. If this scenario verifies then we could be looking at the potential for accumulating moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall for portions of the the region late Sunday into Monday morning.

[CNY_WX]

9 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Snow band over Boston means business...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-24

 

 

I've been monitoring that storm all day and that death band has been producing snowfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour. Most of central to eastern New England is going to end up with 12 to 18 inches in less than 12 hours. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Just now, CNY_WX said:

I've been monitoring that storm all day and that death band has been producing snowfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour. Most of central to eastern New England is going to end up with 12 to 18 inches in less than 12 hours. 

Absolutely and we can't manage that in 10 days, RLMAO!!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

In a LE snow belt mind you which is even more anomalous!!

[BGM Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I just checked KBUF's meso models and I don't like my area for potentially heavy snow, and its a strong band with easily 2-3" an hr amounts but the band looks to fluctuate from just South of Syracuse, lets say Lafayette and moves South to about Cortland sticks around for a few hrs then heads back North where it first formed, just South of KSYR.  Obviously that's just one model out of almost a dozen.  I haven't seen the RGEM which is pretty good with LE events but the Meso's out of KBUF are notorious for being to far South but this case it'll be spot on, lol! The HRRR is, I believe, another good high resolution model that catch's on to LE events but I haven't looked to heavily at any others, other than the wrf, nam and they basically show the same wrt band placement.

new 18z NAM seems to suggest the same. I think BGM should add Seneca, Cortland, and Chenango to the existing advisory, and I could see Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga being upgraded to a warning for say 6-10 with the sweet spot being the high terrain south and southwest of SYR around the Spafford, Preble, Tully, Lafayette areas. That just my opinion though and this will likely come down to nowcasting on the fly. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

16 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

new 18z NAM seems to suggest the same. I think BGM should add Seneca, Cortland, and Chenango to the existing advisory, and I could see Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga being upgraded to a warning for say 6-10 with the sweet spot being the high terrain south and southwest of SYR around the Spafford, Preble, Tully, Lafayette areas. That just my opinion though and this will likely come down to nowcasting on the fly. 

In my gut, I just don't see KSYR getting anything of consequence, as this has been the case thus far.  Unless you live up in Oswego County, North, you haven't seen much snow, so its tough to pull the trigger on a warning event here in KSYR but that's just me and not reality.  I'm hoping for the absolute best, so my fingers are crossed!  I'm more interested in tracking Sunday and Mondays possible event because once the models get a handle on it, then you know your getting snowed on and not hoping will I be under this 10 mile wide band that is fluctuating all over the place on a 300 flow throughout this 12 hr event, if that, nah, I'll take the latter and call it a day.

[BGM Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

In my gut, I just don't see KSYR getting anything of consequence, as this has been the case thus far.  Unless you live up in Oswego County, North, you haven't seen much snow, so its tough to pull the trigger on a warning event here in KSYR but that's just me and not reality.  I'm hoping for the absolute best, so my fingers are crossed!  I'm more interested in tracking Sunday and Mondays possible event because once the models get a handle on it, then you know your getting snowed on and not hoping will I be under this 10 mile wide band that is fluctuating all over the place on a 300 flow throughout this 12 hr event, if that, nah, I'll take the latter and call it a day.

Yeah, who knows. If Onondaga gets into warning level snows tonight, it will likely be in the western and southern parts of the County with the help of the terrain there, so I could see them keeping the advisory even still since the bulk of the population in and around the City and its suburbs likely miss out on the highest totals by a short distance to the south and west.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah, who knows. If Onondaga gets into warning level snows tonight, it will likely be in the western and southern parts of the County with the help of the terrain there, so I could see them keeping the advisory even still since the bulk of the population in and around the City and its suburbs likely miss out on the highest totals by a short distance to the south and west.

Exactly!

[BGM Blizzard]

And FWIW... BGM is not very high on the Sunday/Monday threat at this point. Seems they are thinking more in line with the warmer solutions as it stands...

This next system may be a wintry mix. It is still to far out to be
certain of any precip type. ATTM placed rain, freezing rain, or
sleet as the possible precip type as it appears that there is
significant WAA with this system and it may be significant enough
that we may see some problems. It appears that by mid day on Sunday
that there will be enough WAA that precip will transition over to
rain, and then a cold front will move through the region Sun night
and change precip back over to snow. Because of the uncertainty of
this system, decided to keep it simple at this time. Do not have
forecast ice accumulations attm, but do not expect heavy accumulations
with this system. Will closely monitor this it as it approaches.
This system, Sat night - Sun, is our next key area of focus.

Temperatures will rise into the low 40s and uppr 30s on Sat and
Sun. And range in the uppr teens to low 20s on Sat morning, and
low 30s on Sunday morning.

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

KBUF's expected snowfall

I think it looks good. And as usual, spots that stay under the band the longest jacks!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

And FWIW... BGM is not very high on the Sunday/Monday threat at this point. Seems they are thinking more in line with the warmer solutions as it stands...

This next system may be a wintry mix. It is still to far out to be
certain of any precip type. ATTM placed rain, freezing rain, or
sleet as the possible precip type as it appears that there is
significant WAA with this system and it may be significant enough
that we may see some problems. It appears that by mid day on Sunday
that there will be enough WAA that precip will transition over to
rain, and then a cold front will move through the region Sun night
and change precip back over to snow. Because of the uncertainty of
this system, decided to keep it simple at this time. Do not have
forecast ice accumulations attm, but do not expect heavy accumulations
with this system. Will closely monitor this it as it approaches.
This system, Sat night - Sun, is our next key area of focus.

Temperatures will rise into the low 40s and uppr 30s on Sat and
Sun. And range in the uppr teens to low 20s on Sat morning, and
low 30s on Sunday morning.

 

Why change the tune now, right?

[wolfie09]

Another slight bump north on the 18z Rgem

[wolfie09]

18z Gfs is no euro but colder nonetheless, all snow albeit lower precipitation rates..

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm trying to figure out where the cold is coming from that KBUF is talking about? Looks like the same ole pacific flow that we've had all year. 

[wolfie09]

They are a talking about this..LR only goes out to Thursday the 16th..

 

Conditions will then deteriorate Tuesday night and Wednesday...as a
very strong shortwave will dig south across the Upper Great Lakes.
The various medium range ensembles are exhibiting a large amount of
spread in their solutions as to the placement of the sfc features at
this time...however they generally agree on the development of deep
closed low over the Lower Great Lakes. This should at least support
scattered snow showers...if not significant lake snows. While temps
on Wednesday will be close to normal...this will be the start of a
downward trend that should continue into the end of the week.

 

 

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Perfect, as that is exactly how this Winter has been going and continue's to go.  Whatever it takes this year for it NOT to snow, is gonna happen, that's why its just comical to me.

April and  early May will be Yuge for us!

[BGM Blizzard]

Pretty decent band starting to take shape off Lake Huron / Georgian Bay with perhaps some additional upstream enhancement from Lake Superior. I suspect we will see a connection established to LO within the next hour...

[BuffaloWeather]

There is not enough cold air for any significant lake snow outside of tonight and tomorrow for the next 2 weeks. It's really confusing to me. 

[Syrmax]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is not enough cold air for any significant lake snow outside of tonight and tomorrow for the next 2 weeks. It's really confusing to me. 

I don't know that I'd go that far. 12Z GFS and even Euro out through 10 days doesn't look bad. Granted, it's not Siberia but that's not needed for some LES.  After that it's basically la la land, meaning too much uncertainty to take seriously.  I know CFS says above normal but that's an average over time and as subject to change as the next P.O.S. Model in the long range.

There's also plenty of opportunity to watch synoptic storms crush SNE with an "active pattern."

[tim123]

Especially when lake ontario is at November temps.   Bands starting to form now. Here to hoping for a foot. 

[phoenixny]

Liking the orientation of the Georgian Bay band. Flurries in Phoenix. Flow looks too fast for Sunday night Bombo off the NE coast. Maybe tomorrow's models slow it down a bit. Euro barely looked good for us.