CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nope strongest band will be Overnight Friday. Lake effect snows will return to portions of the forecast area during the period as an upper level trough swings across the region and 850 mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Steering flow turns to a general 290-300 flow behind this feature lasting through Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Yeah, it says first half of Friday, right there, not Friday night, but you can think that though???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah, it says first half of Friday, right there, not Friday night, but you can think that though???? No I said 3-4 AM Friday to Friday 1-2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: AS far as Blizzard Warnings along LI and the SE shore of SNE, I think they verify easily. Criteria for Blizzard is sustained winds of 35+ and 1/4 mile vis for 3 consecutive hrs, am I correct, if so, then I think somewhere along the coast verifies easily which will probably be SNE more so than LI unless its Montauk pt or something like that. This thing is a bomb and the best thing it came out of nowhere and of course it hits the usual places along the coastal plain. The Blizzard warning horsesh1t is a pet peeve I picked up from an NWS meteorologist I have been friendly with over the years. In virtually none of the warnings in the I-95 corridor can you find official stations that verify the criteria. At least anywhere that has the instruments to measure properly. IMO It's more political than anything. "Let's not be accused of underwarning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This is Midnight Friday night and thats NOT a LES signature with 850's approaching -6C, sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: No I said 3-4 AM Friday to Friday 1-2 PM Oh, my bad then, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Syrmax said: The Blizzard warning horsesh1t is a pet peeve I picked up from an NWS meteorologist I have been friendly with over the years. In virtually none of the warnings can you find official stations that verify the criteria. At least anywhere that has the instruments to measure properly. IMO It's more political than anything. "Let's not be accused of underwarning." Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The Blizzard warning horsesh1t is a pet peeve I picked up from an NWS meteorologist I have been friendly with over the years. In virtually none of the warnings in the I-95 corridor can you find official stations that verify the criteria. At least anywhere that has the instruments to measure properly. IMO It's more political than anything. "Let's not be accused of underwarning." I don't think people realize how strong winds get around the Cape when a storm system is rapidly intensifying and getting wound up like this one will be. The storm will drop 25 MB in 24 hours. I went there in summer on a calm day and it was still windy, it's always windy there. 60 MPH gust+ and 10-18" of snow is definitely blizzard worthy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't think people realize how strong winds get around the Cape when a storm system is rapidly intensifying and getting wound up like this one will be. I went there in summer on a calm day and it was still windy, it's always windy there. 60 MPH gust+ and 10-18" of snow is definitely blizzard worthy IMO. On the Cape, agree, and perhaps exposed beaches anywhere facing east with an E or NE wind. Go 1 or 2 miles inland and you'll almost never meet the criteria. I see what NWS BOX is doing with this one and I suppose I wouldn't object but look at LI. NFW they'll verify Blizzard criteria in that area other than right on a beachfront. If NWS wants to issue more Blizzard warnings, just change the criteria to something like "it's windy and snowing along I-95 corridor." Problem fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Cause I lived in Jersey City for 25yrs and I think I saw true, and I mean true Blizzard conditions buring the Blizzard of 96'! That was one for the ages that I'll never forget. My brother my father and I went to visit my mom who had gotten hit by a car and was in the hospital with 2 broken legs and we went to visit that day cause we knew we'd be stuck for a few days so we did. The storm hit as we were leaving and by the time we got home to Jersey City from Paterson, 6" had fallen in about 1.5hrs. Cars were stranded on the Turnpike, Parkway as well as all the thoroughfares throughout the tri-state area. Buses, trains you name it , it was stuck until it let up and that was a long duration event. It was till this day the heaviest snow I have ever seen as it looked like the sky was falling, lol. Frequent strikes of Lightning as well as major claps of Thunder. Probably similar to what you guys saw here in 93' but I was in CO so I missed that one, but 96' to this day was and still is my favorite storm of all time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't think people realize how strong winds get around the Cape when a storm system is rapidly intensifying and getting wound up like this one will be. The storm will drop 25 MB in 24 hours. I went there in summer on a calm day and it was still windy, it's always windy there. 60 MPH gust+ and 10-18" of snow is definitely blizzard worthy IMO. I completely agree 100%. I've lived it so I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Cause I lived in Jersey City for 25yrs and I think I saw true, and I mean true Blizzard conditions buring the Blizzard of 96'! That was one for the ages that I'll never forget. My brother my father and I went to visit my mom who had gotten hit by a car and was in the hospital with 2 broken legs and we went to visit that day cause we knew we'd be stuck for a few days so we did. The storm hit as we were leaving and by the time we got home to Jersey City from Paterson, 6" had fallen in about 1.5hrs. Cars were stranded on the Turnpike, Parkway as well as all the thoroughfares throughout the tri-state area. Buses, trains you name it , it was stuck until it let up and that was a long duration event. It was till this day the heaviest snow I have ever seen as it looked like the sky was falling, lol. Frequent strikes of Lightning as well as major claps of Thunder. Probably similar to what you guys saw here in 93' but I was in CO so I missed that one, but 96' to this day was and still is my favorite storm of all time! Yeah 93 and 96 stand alone in the mid atlantic area. Last years was a # 3 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: On the Cape, agree, and perhaps exposed beaches anywhere facing east with an E or NE wind. Go 1 or 2 miles inland and you'll almost never meet the criteria. I see what NWS BOX is doing with this one and I suppose I wouldn't object but look at LI. NFW they'll verify Blizzard criteria in that area other than right on a beachfront. If NWS wants to issue more Blizzard warnings, just change the criteria to something like "it's windy and snowing along I-95 corridor." Problem fixed. Yeah tough to get higher then 50 sustained away from coast unless storm is sub 980 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: On the Cape, agree, and perhaps exposed beaches anywhere facing east with an E or NE wind. Go 1 or 2 miles inland and you'll almost never meet the criteria. I see what NWS BOX is doing with this one and I suppose I wouldn't object but look at LI. NFW they'll verify Blizzard criteria in that area other than right on a beachfront. Central LI will be hard pressed to meet criteria but South facing shores will most certainly see them as the system passes I would think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If this synoptic system manages to drop a couple inches Bri, we'll be ahead of the game cause we were supposed to get a big ol goose egg, No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah tough to get higher then 50 sustained away from coast unless storm is sub 980 MB. And likely need a strong gradient. We've seen way better setups than this one for high winds. This is progged to get to ~977 passing inside the BM on the way rapidly outbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think this is gonna get a bit interesting around here real soon as the radar is filling in nicely all across the area so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If this synoptic system manages to drop a couple inches Bri, we'll be ahead of the game cause we were supposed to get a big ol goose egg, No? We're not really in the game for Synoptics from this thing. Other than maybe a passing 1" of nuisance snow. Maybe I'll get snow cover back again briefly before the next warmup happens 30 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 BGM Blizzard, you are in a real nice spot for this system so good luck down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We're not really in the game for Synoptics from this thing. Other than maybe a passing 1" of nuisance snow. Maybe I'll get snow over back again before the next warmup happens 30 minutes later. Sorry Bri, but I don't always put all my eggs in their baskets, meaning models! If this system comes 25 miles further N&W then we easily see 2-3" so we'll see. I'm probably dead wrong but I will remain optimistic, in an otherwise dreadful Winter, lol! Its gonna snow, I can feel it in my ankle, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I got flurries falling, yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice band over Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Wrf showing a inch qpf ne monroe western Wayne county.. not even a hwo from buffalo. They really blow forecasting for Roc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This is what i have for WRF/Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 One I was looking at was nnb wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Of course, .5" at 18:1 would yield WSW totals over Monroe. I'm with you Tim, I think it at least deserves a headline of some sort. Probalbly drop one soon. The only reason this has me excited is because of how lame this winter has been. And I know we've had it better than some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I'd say a solid 6 to 12. Isolated higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: I'd say a solid 6 to 12. Isolated higher. Ehhh. You're an optimist. But you've been right before. I'll tell you when I'm bullish. This ain't one of those times. I like a sure thing. Somebody might get 6". Hannibal? Lol. Buffalo ain't getting nothing, so we should be glad for our 1-3,2-4" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Seeing lake snow forming on a North wind. Almost a inch here so far. Goin ahead pattern is looking wild. Storm next week's looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I currently have S to S+ at times and it's adding up fast with ratios at about 18/1" so we'll see how long it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A steady light snow falling here with small flake size. Probably between a quarter and a half inch so far. Based on radar it looks like I probably have a couple more hours of this so I don't expect more than an inch. Looks like just east of here from Binghamton to just east of Utica was in a heavy band for a while but that looks to be weakening and drifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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