BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 I like Sunday as best possible time for metro to get some LES/Lake Enhanced snow, and maybe a lake enhanced event in Tues/Weds timeframe. Rest of the time looks W/NW flow, but there is no arctic air 850s are marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 it's amazing the difference in models this close in, i mean the gfs barely gives the area 1/3" of precip while the euro looked just like last nights 0z with over an inch of precip..The uk has near an inch and a half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: it's amazing the difference in models this close in, i mean the gfs barely gives the area 1/3" of precip while the euro looked just like last nights 0z with over an inch of precip..The uk has near an inch and a half.. I think your spot gets 2' of snow the next 10 days or so. The projected longwave trough is conducive to W/WNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: it's amazing the difference in models this close in, i mean the gfs barely gives the area 1/3" of precip while the euro looked just like last nights 0z with over an inch of precip..The uk has near an inch and a half.. Just looking at radar...hard time believing GFS qpf is anywhere near reality. Which I suppose isn't surprising, qpf is probably the most inaccurate field of most models...and of course it's one panel that usually gets the most attention/discussion. At least by us weenie folk. if intellicast radar ptype is at all correct, I think we may be mostly white up our way around and north of SYR...which is very different from most NWP progs about a day ago, and my mental model for this storm based on that...which featured a healthy slug of rain during the afternoon hours that slowly changes over. It's moving in slower perhaps, allowing for more cooling to occur prior to evaporational/dynamic effects of the storm. Question is wether we get a nice deformation type pivot and where it sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 35/30 here and steady rain at 920ft asl. The airport 3 miles away at 1630ft asl is 31/24 and appears to be mostly snow based on webcam. Elevation is going to lead to some large variances in totals over short distances most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Just looking at radar...hard time believing GFS qpf is anywhere near reality. Which I suppose isn't surprising, qpf is probably the most inaccurate field of most models...and of course it's one panel that usually gets the most attention/discussion. At least by us weenie folk. if intellicast radar ptype is at all correct, I think we may be mostly white up our way around and north of SYR...which is very different from most NWP progs about a day ago, and my mental model for this storm based on that...which featured a healthy slug of rain during the afternoon hours that slowly changes over. It's moving in slower perhaps, allowing for more cooling to occur prior to evaporational/dynamic effects of the storm. Question is wether we get a nice deformation type pivot and where it sets up? Totally agree, where that deformation pivot point sets up is gonna be the money spot. Anywhere in CNY is game. ARW showing lake enhancement along Thruway, or backline of defo or both. My guess is 3-4" for Kroc but higher amounts possible if it comes together just right. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 35/30 here and steady rain at 920ft asl. The airport 3 miles away at 1630ft asl is 31/24 and appears to be mostly snow. Elevation is going to lead to some large variances in totals over short distances most likely. Thanks for that report...you are right about elevation...BGM area can be really convenient area for observing elevation effects in cases like this. I can recall marginal events where A snowstorm was happening up on the hills in Vestal behind SUNY and raining or mixed down on the parkway in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thanks for that report...you are right about elevation...BGM area can be really convenient area for observing elevation effects in cases like this. I can recall marginal events where A snowstorm was happening up on the hills in Vestal behind SUNY and raining or mixed down on the parkway in the valley. Very true. This was the FB post from earlier this afternoon from BGM... Quote Thanks to everyone for your comments about this upcoming storm as it gives us an opportunity to educate about the complexity of meteorology. One person stated "You could just say 1-14 inches (of snow)", and we agree. In complex weather situations where the temperature changes dramatically with elevation and across time and geographic area...yes indeed, a forecast could be 1" to 14" if that's what was dictated by the data. Not sure if you remember the October weather event many years ago where there was a foot of snow here at BGM airport and zero in downtown Binghamton with rain. The result was similar in other parts of our hilly region. Precision and accuracy in mixed precipitation events is a toss up...for anyone. The take home point of this winter event is not necessarily the amounts that everyone seems to hang on, but the fact that a strong storm with changing types of precipitation will impact the area, and may be hazardous to residents and travelers. As we sift through the several cold and warm scenarios our models are showing us, we are providing the best interpretation that the science allows. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Totally agree, where that deformation pivot point sets up is gonna be the money spot. Anywhere in CNY is game. ARW showing lake enhancement along Thruway, or backline of defo or both. My guess is 3-4" for Kroc but higher amounts possible if it comes together just right. Lol Anyone want to discuss the potential for a hideous dryslot? It's one of my old faves from living in SE CT for 2 decades. I think it's probably going to be east of a BGM to ALB line but it's another "screw factor" with synoptic storms. We have to battle boundary temps, no snowcover, a cheesy cold air source, warm noses and maybe a dryslot with this one. Only thing we are missing is a coastal front. I feel like I'm back living on I-95...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Wintry mix in Ithaca ATM, started about half an hour ago. There's a warm tongue at 850 that needs to move out for the snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Radar loop makes me think precip is gonna have a harder time getting past I-81 and north. Need heavier rates to get serious flakes going. Accuweather radar showing much more rain vs mixed. Any reports south of Rt. 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Hrrr doesn't look terrible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 u can see a little shift west with the heavier precip over the last 2 runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Precips gonna get to Toronto as there's a wicked LVL jet ripping out of the SE and if we didn't have that HP in QB we'd be in the upper 40's by now but instead its advecting dry air, as per DP dropping into the upper 20's. As Brian mentioned, I don't think we see much rain from this TBH as we should wetbulb to 29-30 pretty quickly so I think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Yes there has been a few ticks West with most guidance but we don't want any more ticks but at this point its a done deal. its a nowcast situation and I think were gonna all wake up happy here in CNY!! In fact, the next week to two look interesting but the SSW event looks like it wont propagate into the troposphere as most globals have backed off on sustained cold once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 its moving in now and once it does rates should pick up quickly but I still think we get a period of ip/sn but I hope I'm wrong. Either way it's gonna be of the boilerplate variety, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 On que, IP/SN mix attm and I think it hangs around until we can dynamically cool the column and wetbulb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 850mb and I'm sure there are other lvl's we cant see hat are hovering around 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 This could end up being the best synoptic system since VDAY but my memory is bad but I cant remember anything close to 13" with some added ip as well and that was 07'. Can anybody remember anything later than 07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Good to see roc back into 5 to 7 inch range on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I made a bad observation. It has started as plain rn here in liverpool but were down to 33 but there has to be some other warm layer close to the surface thats causing straight rn to fall. Pretty certain its gonna switch fairly quickly but its always in the back of my head, what if it stays rn/sn mix throughout the event, lol! there's a sleetfest going on right now in CT, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 We have some serious returns that'll be traversing the area pretty soon and that should cool the column and if not, then I think we're in for a long night, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Sleet and snow mix here. Grounds whitened and slick. Still thinking I stay mostly sleet this Far East. Right at 32 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just started precipitating as I was leaving gym around 9:15...I think it's a light rain. Temp on my thermometer was 35.1 around 8p...now 34.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This could end up being the best synoptic system since VDAY but my memory is bad but I cant remember anything close to 13" with some added ip as well and that was 07'. Can anybody remember anything later than 07? We've had a severe shortage of systems here in ENY, but not so much that we haven't done better than this slop fest since that glorious VDay storm in 2007. I would think CNY would have had something better than this (synoptic) since that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Accuweather radar showing quite a bit of rain. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/weather-radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, phoenixny said: Accuweather radar showing quite a bit of rain. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/weather-radar Easy solution to that...use intellicast, more blue...next issue...LOL! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, Syrmax said: Easy solution to that...use intellicast, more blue...next issue...LOL! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124 Both of them show me as snow, but definitely a lot of pingers in there. I would say more sleet than anything too. You'll cool down, flip, and end up with more snow than me out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Easy solution to that...use intellicast, more blue...next issue...LOL! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124 Good one! Not a fan of Accublunder but checking out multiple radars. Binghamton 9 PM obs only have Oneonta and Norwich with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This could end up being the best synoptic system since VDAY but my memory is bad but I cant remember anything close to 13" with some added ip as well and that was 07'. Can anybody remember anything later than 07? TBH, I can't but...I think we've had many 9-13" synoptic storms...some with LES dessert...since VD 2.0 in 2007. It all sort of blends together at my age and this areas frequency of snowfall, however we get it. We also had the early December 50" LES blitz a few years ago but that wasn't synoptic. One of the Buf posters reminded me of that a few months ago in another thread. But yeah...in general I'd say VD 2.0 was the last memorable synoptic system...unless you count this past Novembers hybrid storm which rivaled VD 2.0 in net snowfall many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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