CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 you guys in and around KROC Im sure will see something but who knows how much. I think we see 2-3" in my neck of the woods, if that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Even rgem has caved. Gives roc into Wayne County .5 qpf or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Dave what's normal ratio for Lake snow 18 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 There very well may be a surprise 2 3 inches of fluff in am. Meso models show lake snow showers after main precipitation moves east later tonight on a North north east flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: At Least we'll see 1-2" for the synoptic system that's gonna give NYC and points N&E Blizzard conditions for a mere 8hrs and their looking at well over a foot prolly closer to 12-15" so when all is said and done NYC will have more snow OTG than us here in CNY, lol! Most guidance tonight has pushed accumulating snows up here into ENY too. My expectations are still low, but it won't take much to be the heaviest snow of the season. I'm barely over two feet on the season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stash said: Most guidance tonight has pushed accumulating snows up here into ENY too. My expectations are still low, but it won't take much to be the heaviest snow of the season. I'm barely over two feet on the season thus far. I think your in line for a nice plowable snow Stash, probably 5-8" with lollies of 10" so good luck bru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I will say this though, The snow currently pounding WPA right now isn't headed East as most guidance has it doing so, but its moving ENE so this, I think, is a nowcast situ. I'm not saying we see anything from this system but odds are getting a bit higher for us to at least see something so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Only downside to this synoptic system impacting some of us in C and E NY is the forward speed as this thing is chugging right now. The back edge of the precip is already about to clear CLE and we are still about 60-90 minutes from seeing the first flakes here in BGM and most of the modeling has the precip shutoff around BGM by mid-morning. Banking on a few to several hours of .5 to 1" rates to maybe pull off 5" here. If the GFS and Euro are correct, we may end up closer to 7" here, but we'll see. As fast as this system is moving I'm inclined to side more with the NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hey you guys in KROC let us know if that band dropping South through LO isn't just virga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We already have some semblance of a spray of light snow that's starting to develop off the lake as 850's approach -13C and that's at the lowest levels with synoptic moving in overhead above that, so things can get interesting around here come tomorrow. I just don't think we see more than a dusting from this event IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 mile visibility at k Niagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ok so its dropping snow then, good as that means it wont take much to saturate as I haven't looked at soundings so I'll settle for ground obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 shows most locations reporting -SN across the area including KROC unless its a false read but KBUF is also reporting -SN. Interesting as dp's are quite low across the area with Arctic Air overhead. This is definitely an interesting set-up that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Let's not forget lake ontario is still 40 to 43 degrees. Delta will be extreme. Invertion over 10000 feet tomorrow eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 No one's forgotten, lol, which is extremely anomalous in early Feb! I'd love to know when LO was in the low 40's in the early part of FEB. Think I'll do some research but I bet a very long time ago. I don't even think it was this warm last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: shows most locations reporting -SN across the area including KROC unless its a false read but KBUF is also reporting -SN. Interesting as dp's are quite low across the area with Arctic Air overhead. This is definitely an interesting set-up that's for sure. It's real. Very light, but radar just shows it edging into Kroc now, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: No one's forgotten, lol, which is extremely anomalous in early Feb! I'd love to know when LO was in the low 40's in the early part of FEB. Think I'll do some research but I bet a very long time ago. I don't even think it was this warm last yr. The problem with this LES event is SHORT DURATION. So some lucky towns from ROC area towards Cortland will get a nice dump in a thin single band with multi lake connection. And that's about it. 2-4" most anywhere else I suspect, except maybe lakeside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Not all that short. About 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: The problem with this LES event is SHORT DURATION. So some lucky towns from ROC area towards Cortland will get a nice dump in a thin single band with multi lake connection. And that's about it. 2-4" most anywhere else I suspect, except maybe lakeside? I could care less bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: Only downside to this synoptic system impacting some of us in C and E NY is the forward speed as this thing is chugging right now. The back edge of the precip is already about to clear CLE and we are still about 60-90 minutes from seeing the first flakes here in BGM and most of the modeling has the precip shutoff around BGM by mid-morning. Banking on a few to several hours of .5 to 1" rates to maybe pull off 5" here. If the GFS and Euro are correct, we may end up closer to 7" here, but we'll see. As fast as this system is moving I'm inclined to side more with the NAM and RGEM. I went with 4.3" BGM and 5.5" ALB. I also think the quick hitter nature of this will keep amts under control. I had ORH as j/p with 15.3. Despite the asinine blizzard warnings, this is what, a 990 mb low? Granted it's strengthening but it's going to move quickly...GMAFB with Blizzard idiocy. Again. Virtually None of it ever verifies, other than maybe on the end of a dock right on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not all that short. About 18 hours The LES prime time is maybe 6-8 hours...most of the time is the usual stuff...lowering inversion, drying, shear, flow oscillations, Feb sun angle, you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The problem with this LES event is SHORT DURATION. So some lucky towns from ROC area towards Cortland will get a nice dump in a thin single band with multi lake connection. And that's about it. 2-4" most anywhere else I suspect, except maybe lakeside? And short duration means absolutely nothing when it comes to LES I would think but I will say that KBGM is pretty gung ho on a nice band setting up along the Thruway corridor which I firmly do not believe. We also got to remember, 850's are headed for -20C and with lake temps in the l40's thats would make for extreme instability so if there is some sort of connection to the upper lakes, which KBGM is alluding to, then someone can pick up easily warning level snows and the most probable will be from central Monroe cty through Cortland Cty and could actually reach the catskills for a time. I really think your low balling this event Brian, but thats just my optimism speaking as I am well aware that our area recieves less than a few inches at best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: And short duration means absolutely nothing when it comes to LES I would think but I will say that KBGM is pretty gung ho on a nice band setting up along the Thruway corridor which I firmly do not believe. We also got to remember, 850's are headed for -20C and with lake temps in the l40's thats would make for extreme instability so if there is some sort of connection to the upper lakes, which KBGM is alluding to, then someone can pick up easily warning level snows and the most probable will be from central Monroe cty through Cortland Cty and could actually reach the catskills for a time. I really think your low balling this event Brian, but thats just my optimism speaking as I am well aware that our area recieves less than a few inches at best! I may be low balling it but I'm not impressed. I could be wrong. Although I haven't whipped out BUFKIT and done a proper analysis on this as usually it's not worth the time around here. I'm taking the lazy man's approach...take KBUF's total for right over the border from me and divide by 2 (or sometimes 3 if flow is 290 or more westerly) Usually close enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Snowing nicely in rochester. Ground getting covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 AS far as Blizzard Warnings along LI and the SE shore of SNE, I think they verify easily. Criteria for Blizzard is sustained winds of 35+ and 1/4 mile vis for 3 consecutive hrs, am I correct, if so, then I think somewhere along the coast verifies easily which will probably be SNE more so than LI unless its Montauk pt or something like that. This thing is a bomb and the best thing it came out of nowhere and of course it hits the usual places along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The LES prime time is maybe 6-8 hours...most of the time is the usual stuff...lowering inversion, drying, shear, flow oscillations, Feb sun angle, you name it. Yep dynamics are not that impressive. Only deltas are. Shear and dry air will quickly destroy bands by Friday afternoon. Prime time is 4-5 AM Friday to 1-2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yep dynamics are not that impressive. Only deltas are. Shear and dry air will quickly destroy bands by Friday afternoon. Prime time is 4-5 AM Friday to 1-2 PM Yeah but it begins Thursday evening?? By Friday afternoon winds are veering ahead of an approaching clipper so your time frames are off. Listen we can spit out all kinds of opinions and at the end of the event I can be wrong if we get over 2" here while places like KROC see warning criteria snows so all in all its not a blockbuster event which NW flow events are usually not but if, just if a connection is made and it lasts for over a few hrs then I can see a few places getting some appreciable snows somewhere in CNY but not here, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah but it begins Thursday evening?? By Friday afternoon winds are veering ahead of an approaching clipper so your time frames are off. Listen we can spit out all kinds of opinions and at the end of the event I can be wrong if we get over 2" here while places like KROC see warning criteria snows so all in all its not a blockbuster event which NW flow events are usually not but if, just if a connection is made and it lasts for over a few hrs then I can see a few places getting some appreciable snows somewhere in CNY but not here, lol! Nope strongest band will be Overnight Friday. Lake effect snows will return to portions of the forecast area during the period as an upper level trough swings across the region and 850 mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Steering flow turns to a general 290-300 flow behind this feature lasting through Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I disagree. Dynamics look good and we're it sets up it doesn't move much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I'll laugh my azz off if after all is said and done this is our second biggest event, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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