Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

Yea pretty much the same here, hung out at 33 all day with rain..Snow pack did well absorbing it, according to cocorahs sitting at just under 10"..

[wolfie09]

Kbuf

Lake effect snows will return to portions of the forecast area during the period as an upper level trough swings across the region and 850mb temps plunge to around -18C. With northwest flow developing Thursday, we will likely see lake effect snows developing across far southwestern NY and south of Lake Ontario during the day on Thursday. Shear associated with the shortwave passage and a lack of synoptic moisture should keep snowfall generally light initially, however by the afternoon the development of an upstream connection to Lake Huron may end up yielding several inches of fluffy snow across the Chautauqua Ridge Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. An LES advisory may end up being needed across that area.

The aforementioned shortwave should completely clear the forecast area by Thursday evening. As WNW flow develops behind the departing wave and ahead of an approaching broad, flat upper level ridge, there will be a window of opportunity for the development of more significant lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday morning. The combination of very cold 850mb temps/very strong lake-induced instability, low shear, and a favorable wind direction for an upstream connection to Georgian Bay suggests that we may see warning-level snows from northeastern Wayne to southern Oswego counties. The cold temperatures and the tell-tale omega bullseye in the heart of the dendritic growth zone showing up in model soundings all suggest that there should be no issue rapidly piling up 6-9 inches of low-density snow across the aforementioned area. The only fly in the ointment is the fact that this favorable window will be somewhat limited, as high pressure quickly moves across the region on Friday, and any movement in bands may make it more difficult to attain the warning amounts in the limited time available.

 

Lake snows will taper off on Friday as a narrow ridge of high pressure crosses the forecast area and flow backs to the south behind this low. However, the respite will be short-lived, as the next system will begin to impact far western NY by Friday afternoon. The culprit will be a zone of warm advection/isentropic uplift that will be crossing the area Friday into Friday night, on the eastern flank of a clipper low that will be filling as it crosses north of the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, this system may produce a general 1-2 inches of accumulation across the bulk of the forecast area, with perhaps slightly more across the North Country.

[WNash]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's literally the worst winter weather pattern I've seen since 2012. I think I'm about ready for spring. Not enough cold air for lake effect, and the synoptic pattern favors SNE. I honestly don't think it could get worse.

Brutal snow drought. You look at the poor numbers for BUF in the 1940s or late 1980s/early 1990s, and you realize that we've done far worse over the last six seasons than at any other point in the records. It's only the second week in February, but I'm not sure where the snow is gonna come from.

Ready for spring as well.

[tim123]

Why monroe County is not in watch is beyond me as all meso models show monroe County bullseye and nothing in oswego county

[CNY-WXFREAK]

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Lake
Effect Snow Watch...which is in effect from Thursday evening
through Friday morning.

* LOCATIONS...Onondaga, Madison, Oneida Counties in New York.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Potential for over 7 inches.

* TIMING...Expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to set up near
  the Interstate 90 corridor late Thursday evening and persist
  through Thursday night before weakening Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow could make travel dangerous. Roads
  could become snow covered and hazardous. Considerable blowing
  and drifting snow will also be possible along with
  significantly reduced visibilities.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...In the teens.

 

What a effin joke!  Ill believe this **** when I see it!  Get ready So. Oswego cty and Brewerton and points SE, lol!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

2 hours ago, tim123 said:

Why monroe County is not in watch is beyond me as all meso models show monroe County bullseye and nothing in oswego county

LE is not determined by models Tom, it is by forecasters however so blame them!

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, WNash said:

Brutal snow drought. You look at the poor numbers for BUF in the 1940s or late 1980s/early 1990s, and you realize that we've done far worse over the last six seasons than at any other point in the records. It's only the second week in February, but I'm not sure where the snow is gonna come from.

Ready for spring as well.

It's the worst year for snow in Buffalo in comparison to other regions. Binghamton has double the snow of Buffalo, I don't think that has ever happened.

[BGM Blizzard]

12z models for most part seem to have moved the track and/or qpf fields ever so slightly more to the NW across C and E NY for impending synoptic storm in the NE US. With better than 10:1 ratios in play I suspect another layer of counties (tioga, broome, chenango, otsego) get added to an advisory for 3-7 but guess we'll see. Synoptic hits have been few and far so far this year so gotta take what can get.

 

[BGM Blizzard]

Both the GFS and the NAM show a prolonged multi lake connection setting up Thursday night and lasting into Friday Afternoon and impacting from between ROC and SYR and stretching southeast all the way through the Catskills to portions of the Hudson Valley. In fact it briefly shows it reaching all the way to the long Island sound. Hopefully it pans out. Qpf isn't all that impressive but lake effect qpf doesn't seem to be modeled all that well in general and with good ratios it could be a solid event with a wide reaching impact across alot of real estate in NY.

[tim123]

44 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Both the GFS and the NAM show a prolonged multi lake connection setting up Thursday night and lasting into Friday Afternoon and impacting from between ROC and SYR and stretching southeast all the way through the Catskills to portions of the Hudson Valley. In fact it briefly shows it reaching all the way to the long Island sound. Hopefully it pans out. Qpf isn't all that impressive but lake effect qpf doesn't seem to be modeled all that well in general and with good ratios it could be a solid event with a wide reaching impact across alot of real estate in NY.

Nws not even a watch for monroe County. Nam slams entire County too.

[tim123]

Been showing this for several runs. This is 10 to 1 too. 

[BGM Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Nws not even a watch for monroe County. Nam slams entire County too.

Yeah if the NAM, GFS, and RGEM are correct the axis of the current watches as they stand are a bit off. Oswego and Oneida counties look to be too far north/east. The next layer of counties to the west/southwest from Monroe to atleast Cayuga, Cortland and possibly Chenango look to be more in line for a direct impact whatever that might be.

[tim123]

onrario and seneca look to do well too.

[BGM Blizzard]

That said the GEM seems to favor a more westerly direction as the watch layout would seem to suggest so guess have to wait and see which is right. Seems a consensus of nam, gfs, and RGEM would be a better bet but I've heard the GEM is pretty good for LES forecasting.

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Both the GFS and the NAM show a prolonged multi lake connection setting up Thursday night and lasting into Friday Afternoon and impacting from between ROC and SYR and stretching southeast all the way through the Catskills to portions of the Hudson Valley. In fact it briefly shows it reaching all the way to the long Island sound. Hopefully it pans out. Qpf isn't all that impressive but lake effect qpf doesn't seem to be modeled all that well in general and with good ratios it could be a solid event with a wide reaching impact across alot of real estate in NY.

Nice post.  That model output separately posted above looks eerily similar to the November hybrid event where the BGM area was slammed with lake effect. Prob won't be exactly the same but perhaps a close cousin?

[Syrmax]

45 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Been showing this for several runs. This is 10 to 1 too. 

That's a classic map for some of us in CNY, pretty much leaves myself, Ty, LEK, cnywx and Wolfie holding our cranks.

[BGM Blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Nice post.  That model output separately posted above looks eerily similar to the November hybrid event where the BGM area was slammed with lake effect. Prob won't be exactly the same but perhaps a close cousin?

Ha, one could hope. Looks like the flow might be a tad too westerly to come straight into Broome but this far out if it's running through the northern part of the county then that is close enough to get me into the game. The entire event looks to be about 12 hours with a multi lake connection for atleast half of it if not more and the flow looks to hold fairly steady so Im thinking there is a decent shot at localized warning level amounts well inland to south central ny but I tend not to follow LES modeling as much as others since we don't get as much down this way but perameters seem to be pretty good so guess we'll see.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

You know how many time snow has been forecasted for my area only to see the band lift to the North with a NW flow throughout the BL so LE has a mind of its own as far as placement.  If the parameters look good, wait till the band set's up, then worry about accumulations because there seems to be no other definite way!

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

You know how many time snow has been forecasted for my area only to see the band lift to the North with a NW flow throughout the BL so LE has a mind of its own as far as placement.  If the parameters look good, wait till the band set's up, then worry about accumulations because there seems to be no other definite way!

We live in a fringe area for a lake Effect...we do get it, but usually short lived and rarely intense for more than an hour or two. 2-5" is pretty common for probably 90% of it.  This year has been particularly tough with big snows just a short ride north of us, or even south  I have learned to broadbrush it more and expect little from it other than a mesoscale meteorological curiosity up east of L.O., especially this season.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

40 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We live in a fringe area for a lake Effect...we do get it, but usually short lived and rarely intense for more than an hour or two. 2-5" is pretty common for probably 90% of it.  This year has been particularly tough with big snows just a short ride north of us, or even south  I have learned to broadbrush it more and expect little from it other than a mesoscale meteorological curiosity up east of L.O., especially this season.

I absolutely despise anything that has to do with forecasting LES because its all moot, unless its the day of the event and even then, its a struggle!  We reside in a NW snow belt Brian, and this year most events have been a straight Westerly flow aloft or, somehow SW, which is anomalous especially in January so its been quite an anomalous season so far and I don't think it changes much.  I know we all have to go through a few yrs of below normal SN but when it becomes season after season then it becomes a problem especially in places like CNY where winter enthusiasts are supposed to be able to enjoy wintry conditions from Dec-March on a regular.  Well that hasn't happened since 13-14 and before that I can't remember. Our avg is 123" and sitting at 70", if that, the second week of February is a bad situation, point blank, and if ppl cant see this then their in denial!

[Syrmax]

36 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I absolutely despise anything that has to do with forecasting LES because its all moot, unless its the day of the event and even then, its a struggle!  We reside in a NW snow belt Brian, and this year most events have been a straight Westerly flow aloft or, somehow SW, which is anomalous especially in January so its been quite an anomalous season so far and I don't think it changes much.  I know we all have to go through a few yrs of below normal SN but when it becomes season after season then it becomes a problem especially in places like CNY where winter enthusiasts are supposed to be able to enjoy wintry conditions from Dec-March on a regular.  Well that hasn't happened since 13-14 and before that I can't remember. Our avg is 123" and sitting at 70", if that, the second week of February is a bad situation, point blank, and if ppl cant see this then their in denial!

Yeah it's been a douschy winter locally for snowfall for our immediate area.  I am around 70", less than the airport and well less than Fulton, Central Square although I've seen this happen before. We probably avg 2-3 feet less snow than Fulton or CS anyway. It's not the joke that was last winter but pretty blah overall with all the LES almost within spitting distance.  Who knew November was the highlight of "winter?"  I posted my snowfall records back to 2004 and really only 2 very below normal mild winters with a couple that were below normal but not disasters (probably like this one).  I don't really see much of a trend TBH, other than the continued lack of strong synoptic snowstorms for most of upstate NY. 

[tim123]

Again nam insists on monroe County slamming. Up to a foot. Not even a hwo. But also shows zilch for oswego county but they get a watch. Smh

[CNY-WXFREAK]

58 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah it's been a douschy winter locally for snowfall for our immediate area.  I am around 70", less than the airport and well less than Fulton, Central Square although I've seen this happen before. We probably avg 2-3 feet less snow than Fulton or CS anyway. It's not the joke that was last winter but pretty blah overall with all the LES almost within spitting distance.  Who knew November was the highlight of "winter?"  I posted my snowfall records back to 2004 and really only 2 very below normal mild winters with a couple that were below normal but not disasters (probably like this one).  I don't really see much of a trend TBH, other than the continued lack of strong synoptic snowstorms for most of upstate NY. 

This is no joke and looking back now, I can't believe it.  I moved here in Sept 02, and that may have been thee best Winter of my life as it snowed consistently from just before Xmas right through February. That yr we had a 10" event Christmas day, if you recall, then it snowed for 33 days straight and I am NOT exaggerating as you can go back and check daily records for 02-03. Since then, we saw vday in 07 which dropped 13" plus 2" of sleet and very little FZRN. Since that v-day event, what big synoptic systems have we seen above 12", which I consider a severe winter storm. I cant remember many if they were not associated to LE somehow.  I'm talking pure synoptics here.  I've had several discussions about this with LEK, which thinks I'm wrong, but 2-3 synoptic events of a span of 14 yrs is anything but convincing to me, IMO!  We are simply not situated in an area that favors pure synoptic events, so be it, but throw us a bone once in a while, NO? Just for instance, look at the next week. This whiff to our SE, then some inconsequential LE tomorrow night and early Friday, then a bull**** 1-2" clipper drops in from Alberta, then after that a similar event to what we just went through Monday-Tuesday.  I mean come on, when does it end, in Morch, when you can almost get a tan if warm enough, lol.  I'm simply done Brian, seriously. I can dig right now snapping a cold one sitting back waiting for some large mouth to bite somewhere in CNY, lol, not waiting on a LES event that'll drop 2-3" if that, lol.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Again nam insists on monroe County slamming. Up to a foot. Not even a hwo. But also shows zilch for oswego county but they get a watch. Smh

Tim, KBGM has BL winds progged at 290-310 so that unfortunately is not conducive to snows along the South Shore but we'll see, as you may be right and both KBUF and KBGM may be wrong, lol!

[tim123]

Nam been showing roc in cross hairs for 2 days. And we are not talking 5 miles difference. This is like 60 to 90 miles

[CNY-WXFREAK]

At Least we'll see 1-2" for the synoptic system that's gonna give NYC and points N&E Blizzard conditions for a mere 8hrs and their looking at well over a foot prolly closer to 12-15" so when all is said and done NYC will have more snow OTG than us here in CNY, lol!

[rochesterdave]

8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Tim, KBGM has BL winds progged at 290-310 so that unfortunately is not conducive to snows along the South Shore but we'll see, as you may be right and both KBUF and KBGM may be wrong, lol!

310 is the $ number for Northern Monroe. More than that and it goes to fingered multi bands. 

As to modeling, I haven't seen a model be able to forecast South Shore events. 

Ill be watching. Downstate event is interesting. HRR is cutting totals like a Kmart sale. Talk about a fast hitter! 

[tim123]

We shall see in am what kbuf does. Probably a advisory. 3 to 6. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Once again the NAM doesn't initialize the SW responsible for cyclogenesis along the EC properly at 3mb weaker than it currently is!

[rochesterdave]

Just now, tim123 said:

We shall see in am what kbuf does. Probably a advisory. 3 to 6. 

 

Just now, tim123 said:

We shall see in am what kbuf does. Probably a advisory. 3 to 6. 

Yeah, it should be good for advisory level (at least). Note the enhanced stuff setting up owner SW corner of the lake? Wonder if that might be good to get northern tier of counties in on an inch or two tonight?!