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Sounds promising, for now..

 

Strong cold advection in the wake of the powerful storm will send
H85 temps down to around -20c Wednesday night. This will establish
moderate to extreme instability over the open waters of Lakes Erie
and Ontario...with accumulating lake snows being directed into the
snowbelts east and southeast of the lakes. There should be enough
synoptic moisture to accompany the mesoscale induced lift to support
significant accumulations. Otherwise...it will be brisk and cold
with scattered snow showers. Min temps will be in the teens.

 

The lake snows will continue southeast of both lakes Thursday and
Thursday night as a very cold northwest flow will remain in place.
Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to get above 20f across the
lake plains while readings will not escape the teens across much of
the Southern Tier and across the North Country.
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Yeah but it also has to propagate down into the lower troposphere to have any errect on our sensible weather so we'll see.  A split is great but they don't always propagate.  Anyway, this upcoming system for Monday evening -Wed is not really a slam dunk warm just yet as there has been a pretty big trend for the LP to instead perhaps move directly over or IMO can even come further East.  Its losing some of its punch so instead of wrapping up and heading towards the Central Great Lakes its heading further East, and we still have  a lot of time for thing thing to trend further East.

18Z yesterday

nam_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Today's 12Z

nam_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

It may not mean much as we're still gonna see a mix and prolly some rain but the warn sector is getting shorter and shorter time wise and then its back to pretty much normal-perhaps below!

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Oh and yeah I know its the Nam and the reason I'm picking this, is because it did a lot better than any other model with the last synoptic system with the thermal profile but most of the other global models are showing the SLP decreasing in strength and its the trailing SW that may be taking some of its energy as another wave now develops on Thursday and scrapes the NE coast,

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lol, a soaker to a whiff then back to mix this weekend.  Man this disaster just wont end.  This yr is worse than last yr so far, lol!  Sick of tracking LES that never hits our area anymore.  We're SE of a Great Lake and we have bare ground on February 7??  I say something is definitely going on with the atmosphere and it looks to continue as it looks like an El Nino is making a comeback this summer into next Winter, which means another warm Northeast, lol!

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

lol, a soaker to a whiff then back to mix this weekend.  Man this disaster just wont end.  This yr is worse than last yr so far, lol!  Sick of tracking LES that never hits our area anymore.  We're SE of a Great Lake and we have bare ground on February 7??  I say something is definitely going on with the atmosphere and it looks to continue as it looks like an El Nino is making a comeback this summer into next Winter, which means another warm Northeast, lol!

It's literally the worst winter weather pattern I've seen since 2012. I think I'm about ready for spring. Not enough cold air for lake effect, and the synoptic pattern favors SNE. I honestly don't think it could get worse. ^_^

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...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Watch...which is in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning.

* LOCATIONS...Northern Cayuga...northeastern Wayne...and southern
  Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From late Thursday evening through late Friday
  morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 9 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow may produce difficult
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Medium. Conditions will be favorable for
  the development of lake effect snows...however the time window
  for most favorable conditions will be narrow
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...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Lake
Effect Snow Watch...which is in effect from Thursday evening
through Friday morning.

* LOCATIONS...Onondaga, Madison, Oneida Counties in New York.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Potential for over 7 inches.

* TIMING...Expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to set up near
  the Interstate 90 corridor late Thursday evening and persist
  through Thursday night before weakening Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow could make travel dangerous. Roads
  could become snow covered and hazardous. Considerable blowing
  and drifting snow will also be possible along with
  significantly reduced visibilities.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...In the teens.
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We managed to stay below freezing here until after 7 last night then we jumped to 46 briefly now I'm back down to 37. We've managed to hold onto a snow cover although it's getting thin. I hope the NWS is right and we can get 6 inches off the lake tomorrow night. 

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