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Forecast for next Week doesn't look so bad anymore..

 

Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday
Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:
Pretty sure he was referring to this house..I was just looking at this yesterday lol
 
See what I found on #Zillow!

 

Yeah that was the one.  Interesting to think about. F*ck they delayed school this a.m. for snow flurries and 1" of snow, the one day i can't easily deal with a delay.  

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I dont know about you Bri, but I managed 4" somehow which was a pretty big surprise.  KBGM has us under anadvisury from 2PM to 3AM Friday so if they pulled the trigger on an Advisory, it means something is coming but we'll see!

Next week is looking better and better with every run.  Even the Euro now has redevelopment South of LI then it heads NNW towards VT which can happen as it gets captured by a potent SW in SE CA.  GFS is close to the same solution,  I havent checked anything else yet so....

I'm remaining cautiously optimistic, especially considering the EPO is going strongly Negative as is the WPO and the AO remains in the tank  

ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

On top of this, the PNA is positive so practically every teleconnection is on our side for cold and snow so we'll see.

pna.sprd2.gif

It also looks like we have a phase change with the NAO as well as it too is heading South so all in all, Everything points to a system along the EC not one that heads up through the Great Lakes so at this particular point in time, I'm no longer concerned about a true cutter!  I can be completely wrong but my research says otherwise, so lets see if the models react to the changes in the atmosphere that I just pointed out.

The MJO ironically is in a phase that is not cold, actually the exact opposite should be occurring but there are other players at work that supercede the effects of the MJO.

 

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Yeah i read KBGM disco. What this scenario usually amounts to is a couple rounds of snow here and there.  We are already done with accumulating snow until this evening, if it even does snow again.  Granted, can be a nuisance based on timing but pretty minor stuff overall, here, as most lake snow is.  Maybe they issued an advisory due to timing of snow showers. Measured 1.5" this morning so i was surprised at a school delay....which is now a closure. Must be more snow up in Oswego cty.

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36 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

:wub:

Don't think this is still on the market.  My neighbor up there sold it to new owners this past summer.  Beautiful location but nobody has been able to run a successful business there past 10 years.  Used  to be a cross country skiing, tubing, yurt destination, now snowmobiling.

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31 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah i read KBGM disco. What this scenario usually amounts to is a couple rounds of snow here and there.  We are already done with accumulating snow until this evening, if it even does snow again.  Granted, can be a nuisance based on timing but pretty minor stuff overall, here, as most lake snow is.  Maybe they issued an advisory due to timing of snow showers. Measured 1.5" this morning so i was surprised at a school delay....which is now a closure. Must be more snow up in Oswego cty.

Bro if you look out over the lake there's a wicked band starting to develop on a W-NW orientation which should effect us here in Onondaga and Madison counties.  I firmly believe we get into some heavy heavy snow later on this afternoon, IMO.  I think this looks to be the best looking scenario for, my area at least, to get accumulating lake snows so lets see what happens.  I know its consistently doom and gloom around here but I don't think today is one of those days, lol.  

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9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Bro if you look out over the lake there's a wicked band starting to develop on a W-NW orientation which should effect us here in Onondaga and Madison counties.  I firmly believe we get into some heavy heavy snow later on this afternoon, IMO.  I think this looks to be the best looking scenario for, my area at least, to get accumulating lake snows so lets see what happens.  I know its consistently doom and gloom around here but I don't think today is one of those days, lol.  

Well good luck up there. I'm down in syracuse at work. You could be right but i usually don't put much stock in lake snow in my/our area, beyond a few inches here and there.  Over in Oswego cty, usually a different story.

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Beautiful huge snowflakes coming down right now!  This what winter should look like!  I only picked up an inch and a half last night but I'm cautiously optimistic for today. A west-northwest band appears to be forming that should set up over northern Onondaga/southern Oswego counties. Let's see how this works out. 

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4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I dont know about you Bri, but I managed 4" somehow which was a pretty big surprise.  KBGM has us under anadvisury from 2PM to 3AM Friday so if they pulled the trigger on an Advisory, it means something is coming but we'll see!

Next week is looking better and better with every run.  Even the Euro now has redevelopment South of LI then it heads NNW towards VT which can happen as it gets captured by a potent SW in SE CA.  GFS is close to the same solution,  I havent checked anything else yet so....

I'm remaining cautiously optimistic, especially considering the EPO is going strongly Negative as is the WPO and the AO remains in the tank  

ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

On top of this, the PNA is positive so practically every teleconnection is on our side for cold and snow so we'll see.

pna.sprd2.gif

It also looks like we have a phase change with the NAO as well as it too is heading South so all in all, Everything points to a system along the EC not one that heads up through the Great Lakes so at this particular point in time, I'm no longer concerned about a true cutter!  I can be completely wrong but my research says otherwise, so lets see if the models react to the changes in the atmosphere that I just pointed out.

The MJO ironically is in a phase that is not cold, actually the exact opposite should be occurring but there are other players at work that supercede the effects of the MJO.

 

Cold and snow for next two weeks then all out epic torch for rest of feb into early march. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

After feb 15th I think spring starts. It looks warm from coast to coast. It's across all model guidance. 

Girlfriend and I are thinking of coming up to Niagara Falls toward end of March. One year anniversary together. She hasn't been since she was like 5. I haven't been when it was warm lol

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1 hour ago, ayuud11 said:

giphy.gif

 

 

Geeziz thats a horrendous CFS outlook. I thought I would get to 100" for the season (35 to go) but if that comes to fruition, probably not.  Looks like lake band staying in oswego county, as reports from kid at home indicate its snowing "once in a while."

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Geeziz thats a horrendous CFS outlook. I thought I would get to 100" for the season (35 to go) but if that comes to fruition, probably not.  Looks like lake band staying in oswego county, as reports from kid at home indicate its snowing "once in a while."

MJO looks to move rapidly into 7 and 8 on the next couple of weeks, seems contrary to the CFS outlook.

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We're switching between large dendrites and smaller flakes over the last hour or so as we kind of sit in a weird spot with this band. Visibility is back down to a quarter mile. Very curious where this band locks in after about 5:00 PM today. If it can lock down for the evening/overnight hours, someone probably hits 18" or so overnight with another round Friday PM-Saturday morning too. Will likely be the best event in Oswego county this year. 

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