BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 WSW up for Central/Eastern New York. Latest models have the storm moving more East and think the watches for the far western counties get dropped. Thinking 2-4" for areas south of Ontario. Binghamton 4-8", highest elevations of Eastern New York 6-10". Thursday Night into Sunday looks like a decent LES event, although temperatures are marginal so don't expect anything huge. The long range change to a cooler pattern that was showing up seems to have disappeared the last few days. The SSW event took place but the polar vortex looks to remain intact. The GFS Ens and Euro ENS differ quite a bit in the long range. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author CIPS analogs have us cooler than average until the end of the run. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/EXT_DFHR1.php?reg=&fhr=F168&rundt=2017012200&map=TNORM If I had to guess I think we see a few more cool-downs in the next 2 months but primarily average above normal in temperatures and we see a quicker transition than normal to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Lake Erie 34-36 degs throughout. Don't think we see a complete freeze this year for a 2nd year straight. Ontario is very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 The indices are also all going the wrong way. - PNA, +NAO, +AO. You almost never get cold weather with those 3 indices with those values in the GL and Northeast. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Not sure if posted yet but the LES event in early January ended up getting 4 stars. Max totals of nearly 4 feet off both lakes. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 By 12z tomorrow, the cuse will be out of the heavier stuff as well, so it wont be long before we join you guys in the west, lol!! Just to damn good to be true. Good track, great moisture feed but no cold air and now we get screwed on the track. The models cant even resolve **** 2 days out anymore. Seems as though we're headed the wrong way in the tech dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Euro!!! Haha still over an inch of precipitation, come on king!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Dr No putting an end to the eastward trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Surprisingly, the Euro keeps pretty bullish totals from Rochester thru Syracuse. With 6"-12" totals common from 390 East. I'm shocked. It also shows the low moving to position near or just west of where it had it at tomorrow at 18z in the 12z run. Very weird. I want to check the 850 temps to see if there is any chance of Lake Enhancement off a NE wind. One can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Interestingly, the Euro doesn't show heavy stuff hitting the i90 corridor until the 30-36 hr frame. It is at that time that cold temps do crash in, so i wouldn't rule out some help from our friend Lake Ontario. The precip signature seems to suggest that. All in all. This euro run shows a more traditional nor Easter. With the low heading off the coast and then riding up, just barely off shore to just east of NJ. Its a different sollution from yesterdays run, but yields good snow for kroc. Wild. Just when I'm out, they reel me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 King is back?? 6z nam hugs the coast of nj but 850mb temps are toasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Nam now has 1.2" of liquid here, not sure why it's so warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 NWS went with a warning for 6"-10"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Kbuf Again, the challenging part of this forecast remains the very marginal thermal profiles. This event will start as all rain across the region today. However, as we get into the later part of the afternoon and this evening, marginally cooler air will be advected in on the easterly flow from the cooler airmass over New England. This, combined with increasing precipitation rates by this evening, will allow for dynamically cooling to further cool the column and support a change over from rain to possibly some wintry mix and then over to snow tonight. This is the tricky part of the forecast. The various model guidances range from easily cold enough to support all snow, to some with stubborn warm noses aloft that would support sleet or even freezing rain. Expect that dynamical cooling in the high precipitation rates, something the models usually do not capture well enough, will be enough to push the profile cold enough to support all snow. Have thus leveraged the colder EC/Canadian solutions to support his change over to all snow tonight. Snowfall amounts will be highest across central NY where the best forcing, and highest QPF will track, and thus this is where confidence was high enough for a Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall amounts here will most likely range from 6 to 10 inches. Snowfall rates in the warning area will likely peak around an inch per hour, with most of the snow coming in a 6 to 10 hour window. On the northwest periphery of this warning, lower QPF amounts will amount to advisory snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Amounts will be lowest across the far Western NY, which will see the least QPF and least favorable dynamical cooling, with totals of 1 to 4 inches. Thus have excluded far western NY from any highlights at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The key to the amount of snow we get is the timing of the change over from rain/sleet to snow. Obviously the later this change occurs the less accumulations will be. Channel 9's model keeps a lot of mixing until midnight and their forecast snow totals are low, basically 4 inches with 8 over higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Looks like some kind of inverted trough on some of these models.The storm is well of the coast of nj on most models but yet throw significant precip this way..Hopefully the gfs is not correct with it's 0.20" of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The key to the amount of snow we get is the timing of the change over from rain/sleet to snow. Obviously the later this change occurs the less accumulations will be. Channel 9's model keeps a lot of mixing until midnight and their forecast snow totals are low, basically 4 inches with 8 over higher elevations. I've been thinking same idea. The NAM and I think CMC show an area of high qpf somewhere in CNY, wherever that materializes will probably get some impressive snow amts, more like 8-12". I think 6Z nam shows that generally near finger lakes with the inverted trough idea? Looking at precip shield this a.m., i am not buying lower end qpf's for CNY at all. How much falls as snow though is the fun part...Gonna be a very interesting system to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm confused. Where is everyone posting!?!? This is what happens with topic jumping. Why not just winter-upstate, ALL winter long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Did the Euro hold course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I'm confused. Where is everyone posting!?!? This is what happens with topic jumping. Why not just winter-upstate, ALL winter long! This is just a new thread for our region. Just renamed it appropriately since eastern new York is part of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 0C line really starting to crash west across CNY at 850 and 925mb levels as of 3:00 PM mesoanalysis update. Temps and DPs sagging as well. Should start as frozen for everyone, even though the NAM is suggesting a brief period of rain on the front edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 0C line really starting to crash west across CNY at 850 and 925mb levels as of 3:00 PM mesoanalysis update. Temps and DPs sagging as well. Should start as frozen for everyone, even though the NAM is suggesting a brief period of rain on the front edge. Thats really good news for those of us looking to regain proficiency in snowblower operation tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thats really good news for those of us looking to regain proficiency in snowblower operation tomorrow morning. And driving on snow covered roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sitting at 37/30 here just west of BGM. The NWS/Airport on the other side of town on the hill are already down to 32/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm north of you at 1650 feet in Otsego County. Woke to 34F/33. Watched the dew point drop and temp followed over the course of the day. We're at 30F now. No rain to be had........hoping for more snow, less ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The new ARW is... interesting. The trend on the short range models today has been colder, and many are advertising a trailing band of snow that sits across CNY tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be interesting to watch this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Jim Teske from channel 9 here in CNY is calling for 3-6 for lower elevations and 6-10 for the hills south of the CUSE and 6-10 for the Tug. Big Flippin deal lol. Might as well be spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Wayne Mahar going for 6 to 12 just south and east of Syracuse and 5 to 8 I think for rest. Still makes it seem we mix for many hours before going over. Buffalo's WRF models seem to hammer the I-81 corrider late tonight and tomorrow morning with 1" + rates. Bing. NWS alluded to this possibility in AFD. In terms of storm total, still expect 6-8+ inches of heavy, wet snow over our western and northern zones (NW of Broome County). In fact, if a frontogenically forced heavy band sets up this evening this could result in rates of 1-2+ inches an hour and localized storm totals of 10-12+ inches. Gonna be fun to watch. Someone gets a good surprise or the shaft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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