NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The whole picture* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Precip is just about over by the time 850s crash on RGEM... sleetfest up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The whole picture* lol like minded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2"+ QPF for NE NJ, NYC and SE NY. 2.5"+ for Western LI on the RGEM. Wetter than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just measured 62 gust at Manasquan Inlet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Still will be a good storm, but 60 mph is a significant difference than 70 mph...difference between widespread outages and scattered outages. Not surprised as it is very rare to get such winds, but a bit of a let down to be honest. Winds are like a typical windy day currently. 38* now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Why is my temperature lower than forecasted. I'm at 35.9 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Why is my temperature lower than forecasted. I'm at 35.9 degrees Due to a weak high pressure to the north pushing the cold air southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 the warm layer is at 800 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: the warm layer is at 800 mb I've been trying to say that for two days but it keeps getting ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I've been trying to say that for two days but it keeps getting ignored. What's your forecast..... where do you see the rain line setting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 most of the precip will be over by the time 800mb matters. It's 29.8 here...been snowing for hours and already a dusting. It's already colder by a couple degrees than expected. This makes a world of difference. And will make a world of difference in the precip type in most of NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Not to mention dynamic cooling. Temperatures will drop again once the precip moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: most of the precip will be over by the time 800mb matters. It's 29.8 here...been snowing for hours and already a dusting. It's already colder by a couple degrees than expected. This makes a world of difference. And will make a world of difference in the precip type in most of NJ as well. The warm nose at 800mb arrives when the bulk of the precipitation arrives around 7PM. Since you're out in PA and have some decent elevation, you could see a bit more snow than what 99% of the NYC area will experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Not to mention dynamic cooling. Temperatures will drop again once the precip moves in The roaring southeasterly winds thanks to a strengthening LLJ will pump in warm air aloft. The feed is directly from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's your forecast..... where do you see the rain line setting North of 84 and West of the Thruway. I guess areas further Southeast could see some sleet for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Already some power flickering during stronger gusts here in Somerville. Not looking forward to when the stronger winds arrive this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the warm layer is at 800 mb RGEM isnt even that warm at KNYC at hour 15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, psv88 said: Still will be a good storm, but 60 mph is a significant difference than 70 mph...difference between widespread outages and scattered outages. Not surprised as it is very rare to get such winds, but a bit of a let down to be honest. Winds are like a typical windy day currently. 38* now. I'm pretty sure I'll see higher than 60mph gusts at the height of it down by me, but agreed that it will be more of a moderate vs major impact if winds hit 70 or over. The winds are also looking to be more northerly which will lessen the flood threat somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'm pretty sure I'll see higher than 60mph gusts at the height of it down by me, but agreed that it will be more of a moderate vs major impact if winds hit 70 or over. The winds are also looking to be more northerly which will lessen the flood threat somewhat. Yes, i agree, you will probably see some gusts to 65. But Long Beach can handle 65 mph winds no problem now. The North Shore would be a different story. Im still not convinced we dont see some inland airports like ISP gust over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 this colder and drier pattern is a bit troublesome in terms of QPF. GFS could be onto something. It only puts out 0.50 to 0.75 total QPF in SNJ now.. and radar trends would tend to agree. when you have a colder than expected scenario....it usually means drier than expected as well. especially with a Low that isn't all that intense...barely into the 980's. so yea...the GFS is the only fly in the ointment now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes, i agree, you will probably see some gusts to 65. But Long Beach can handle 65 mph winds no problem now. The North Shore would be a different story. Im still not convinced we dont see some inland airports like ISP gust over 60. For sure, Long Beach can easily handle winds in the 60s (gusts) with little or no damage. Same goes for most of the south shore. winds here in wantagh currently are pretty lame, about as strong as they were 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For sure, Long Beach can easily handle winds in the 60s (gusts) with little or no damage. Same goes for most of the south shore. winds here in wantagh currently are pretty lame, about as strong as they were 6 hours ago Few nice gusts here in Garden City right now, around 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the warm layer is at 800 mb It's been there for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Pretty good uptick on totals on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, ag3 said: RGEM isnt even that warm at KNYC at hour 15: Pretty close to sleet for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For sure, Long Beach can easily handle winds in the 60s (gusts) with little or no damage. Same goes for most of the south shore. winds here in wantagh currently are pretty lame, about as strong as they were 6 hours ago Our weaker trees (trees in general) are gone now after Sandy and storms before it. There will likely be some power outages and flooding in the vulnerable areas like the Canal streets and West End. The overnight high tide might be the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: this colder and drier pattern is a bit troublesome in terms of QPF. GFS could be onto something. It only puts out 0.50 to 0.75 total QPF in SNJ now.. and radar trends would tend to agree. when you have a colder than expected scenario....it usually means drier than expected as well. especially with a Low that isn't all that intense...barely into the 980's. so yea...the GFS is the only fly in the ointment now. The convection right now is over Northern VA, however a secondary max is in the process of forming off the mid-atlantic, and should gradually fill in the gaps as the day progresses. As the trough goes negative and winds flip out of the Southeast, the moisture transport will be directly off the ocean and towards the greater NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.