UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Meh on the winds though, I get more on a spring day up here... 10mph sustained highest gust was 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: HRRR goes nuts later with a deformation rain band over western LI. Some areas double the rain already fallen in the band. The 12z RGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Meh on the winds though, I get more on a spring day up here... 10mph sustained highest gust was 27 The writing was on the wall from a wind standpoint over the weekend when all the guidance backed off. I think part of the problem is that the guidance over estimated the strength of the convection last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR goes nuts later with a deformation rain band over western LI. Some areas double the rain already fallen in the band. Weird, usually you hear about deformation snow bands, not rain bands. This isn't some kind of norlun is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, Paragon said: I think this kind of confused me as to the conversion. Also, I remember seeing a map Ulster posted that had 25" near his spot lol. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html Prolonged Sleet - Tentative Findings Liquid equivalent to sleet ratios - a limited number of “largely to all sleet” cases suggest a liquid equivalent to sleet ratio of 1:2-3 inches. That paper states that sleet could be anywhere from 1:2 to 1:3 I finished with 3.4" here of snow/sleet. 2.8" of sleet and 0.6" of snow. Roughly 1" Liquid equivalent here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, Paragon said: Funny thing is I read that it was freezing rain up at Mt Pocono and even up in Burlington, VT. It sounds like the higher rates by you meant more sleet and snow rather than the freezing rain that areas further NW and higher up got, because they were on the edges of the storm and didn't see the rates you did. Elevation will increase the chances of you seeing ZR over sleet/snow when dealing with warming mid levels. Closer to the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I'd also like to note... long range... GGEM actually was first to even have this as a coastalstorm, although it showed blizzard for NYC Long Island lol... Euro/GFS were lake cutters if you remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR goes nuts later with a deformation rain band over western LI. Some areas double the rain already fallen in the band. Probably some sleet could mix in with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Weird, usually you hear about deformation snow bands, not rain bands. This isn't some kind of norlun is it? Temperature is the only reason why it's rain and not snow. The surface low is slowly decaying today, however as the atmosphere becomes a little less stable later today, some new convection could fire around the circulation. It's the same as you would see with an ULL during Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Weird, usually you hear about deformation snow bands, not rain bands. This isn't some kind of norlun is it? It's dynamics associated with the closed low, not a norlun. It's the same thing that happens with snow events sometimes except it's warmer with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: About right, Newburgh about 10 min to my south Looks like there was some enhancement along the W side of the river right up into Ulster county. Eastern sections of OC are reporting 4-5" of snow/sleet while back here is closer to 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 We still have a 987mb low just offshore so it's certainly possible to get some stronger activity later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1.32 here. Highest gusts by me were around 50 (ISP and FRG). Typical Noreaster in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 GFS has the deform band further west with a bullseye amount over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: GFS has the deform band further west with a bullseye amount over NYC. Yeah, it's the furthest West of all the guidance though. To be honest I think the Eastern solution makes sense since the surface low is slowly moving in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: GFS has the deform band further west with a bullseye amount over NYC. This will be really fickle so we have to watch the radar to see where it sets up. Again too bad it couldn't be 10 degrees colder so it could be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: This will be really fickle so we have to watch the radar to see where it sets up. Again too bad it couldn't be 10 degrees colder so it could be snow. 10? I think 5 would do it- it's 37 here So close lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This will be really fickle so we have to watch the radar to see where it sets up. Again too bad it couldn't be 10 degrees colder so it could be snow. I'm glad it won't be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 deform precip tends to lean west with stacked closed lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think it might have been higher then both of those here. I'm trying to figure out which storm it was on par with. Irene was definitely about a foot higher. And despite the weaker winds it was higher then march 2010. For me it came in a little higher than the coastal flooding last January. The Great South Bay here made it about 3 inches above the top of the dock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I hear pinging here- it might be sleet. Will go outside to check, maybe someone else can confirm if they hear pinging too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 If you didn't use a snow board to measure this your totals are probably low. I measured 4.3 inches on my snow board and 2.6 on my blacktop driveway where the sleet did not accumulate right away and compression even of dense sleet was more pronounced because of the underlying heat of the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If you didn't use a snow board to measure this your totals are probably low. I measured 4.3 inches on my snow board and 2.6 on my blacktop driveway where the sleet did not accumulate right away and compression even of dense sleet was more pronounced because of the underlying heat of the driveway. Every respectable weenie measures on a snow board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Every respectable weenie measures on a snow board. I use 3/4" plywood and start the measurement at the bottom of the wood. Thats how its done, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If you didn't use a snow board to measure this your totals are probably low. I measured 4.3 inches on my snow board and 2.6 on my blacktop driveway where the sleet did not accumulate right away and compression even of dense sleet was more pronounced because of the underlying heat of the driveway. Same here... only about 3" on grass/driveway but 4.8 total from board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I use 3/4" plywood and start the measurement at the bottom of the wood. Thats how its done, right? Add a couple 2x4 feet to the bottom of the board first then measure from ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1.77" in the park. Heavier rain rotating in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Currently a combined event total of 1.57" which has doubled the MTD number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Same here... only about 3" on grass/driveway but 4.8 total from board In theory you would have less in the driveway if its asphalt due to some melting because of the warmth that the asphalt held. I have a stone driveway so it's not as noticeable but the stone still holds more warmth than the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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