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Jan 23-24th Nor'easter Nowcast/Obs


dmillz25

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same here along the Great South Bay. Looks like the actual tide level is a little lower than the Tax Day nor'easter in April 2007 and  close to 10/18/2009.

I think it might have been higher then both of those here. I'm trying to figure out which storm it was on par with. Irene was definitely about a foot higher. And despite the weaker winds it was higher then march 2010. 

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53 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

4.3 inches of sleet with a little snow mixed in there.

Looks like Orange county was the sleet jackpot as pretty much called by the NAM 2 days ago. All hail the NAM.

You mean all sleet the nam ;-)

I guess cutting the nam totals a bit worked well too.

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

You mean all sleet the nam ;-)

I guess cutting the nam totals a bit worked well too.

Actuallly the NAM pretty much nailed it. Both with precip and temps

Sleet is 3:1 so if this was snow it would have been 10-12". Pretty much what those silly snow maps were printing out for the area. And it did change to snow at the end

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4 minutes ago, snywx said:

Actuallly the NAM pretty much nailed it. Both with precip and temps

Sleet is 3:1 so if this was snow it would have been 10-12". Pretty much what those silly snow maps were printing out for the area. And it did change to snow at the end

Good point.  I think Ulster reported around 5" of sleet?  So if it was all snow it would've been around 25" of snow- which is what I saw on some of the more robust NAM maps.  I think those maps use 2:1 for sleet so 10:1/2:1 =5 times 5"=25".

 

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Good point.  I think Ulster reported around 5" of sleet?  So if it was all snow it would've been around 25" of snow- which is what I saw on some of the more robust NAM maps.  I think those maps use 2:1 for sleet so 10:1/2:1 =5 times 5"=25".

 

  3" of sleet = 10" of snow. So his 5" of sleet is close to 15" of snow which is again spot on to those silly maps which included sleet

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Good point.  I think Ulster reported around 5" of sleet?  So if it was all snow it would've been around 25" of snow- which is what I saw on some of the more robust NAM maps.  I think those maps use 2:1 for sleet so 10:1/2:1 =5 times 5"=25".

 

I flipped to decent snow by 330 am and it came down pretty heavy for about an hour before turning back to light sleet around 6... if I had to guess I'd say up here 3" of sleet and close to 2" of snow 

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I flipped to decent snow by 330 am and it came down lrettt heavy before turning back to light sleet around 6... if I had to guess I'd say up here 3" of sleet and close to 2" of snow 

Funny thing is I read that it was freezing rain up at Mt Pocono and even up in Burlington, VT.  It sounds like the higher rates by you meant more sleet and snow rather than the freezing rain that areas further NW and higher up got, because they were on the edges of the storm and didn't see the rates you did.

 

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Just now, Paragon said:

Funny thing is I read that it was freezing rain up at Mt Pocono and even up in Burlington, VT.  It sounds like the higher rates by you meant more sleet and snow rather than the freezing rain that areas further NW and higher up got, because they were on the edges of the storm and didn't see the rates you did.

 

I think it was actually low level cold and lower elevation as oppose to actual Latitude, seems the closer you were (higher elevation) to that warm nose... the less time for re-freeze, resulting in a more liquid sleet/freezing rain combo... being in the valley here yet far enough north and only around 380' elevation helped big time. Albany mentioned in their advisorys that higher elevations would see freezing rain as oppose to valleys... not often you see that

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6 minutes ago, snywx said:

  3" of sleet = 10" of snow. So his 5" of sleet is close to 15" of snow which is again spot on to those silly maps which included sleet

I think this kind of confused me as to the conversion.

Also, I remember seeing a map Ulster posted that had 25" near his spot lol.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html

Prolonged Sleet - Tentative Findings

  • Liquid equivalent to sleet ratios - a limited number of “largely to all sleet” cases suggest a liquid equivalent to sleet ratio of 1:2-3 inches.

 

That paper states that sleet could be anywhere from 1:2 to 1:3

 

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I think it was actually low level cold and lower elevation as oppose to actual Latitude, seems the closer you were (higher elevation) to that warm nose... the less time for re-freeze, resulting in a more liquid sleet/freezing rain combo... being in the valley here yet far enough north and only around 380' elevation helped big time. Albany mentioned in their advisorys that higher elevations would see freezing rain as oppose to valleys... not often you see that

You might be right.  The paper I was just reading (in the above link) does an analysis of prolonged sleet events and seems to bear out what you said.

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I think this kind of confused me as to the conversion.

Also, I remember seeing a map Ulster posted that had 25" near his spot lol.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html

Prolonged Sleet - Tentative Findings

  • Liquid equivalent to sleet ratios - a limited number of “largely to all sleet” cases suggest a liquid equivalent to sleet ratio of 1:2-3 inches.

 

That paper states that sleet could be anywhere from 1:2 to 1:3

 

This is correct... snow is usually 10:1, therefor 1.0" LE is 10" of snow 

sleet is let's say for numbers 2:1, therefor 1.0" LE is only 2" of sleet...

so for someone that saw 5" pure sleet they would need 2.5" LE which at 10:1 ratios would be 25" of snow...

 

math isnt my strong suite but I think I did that right?  

 

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5 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I think when they flipped back to all snow this morning it dumped for a bit. Couple videos from whiteface on fb are impressive, rates usually dont show up that well on video.

Thanks I just saw a few, looked like whiteout bliss going on up there.

 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

This is correct... snow is usually 10:1, therefor 1.0" LE is 10" of snow 

sleet is let's say for numbers 2:1, therefor 1.0" LE is only 2" of sleet...

so for someone that saw 5" pure sleet they would need 2.5" LE which at 10:1 ratios would be 25" of snow...

 

math isnt my strong suite but I think I did that right?  

 

Yeah you got it lol- and is my memory going or did you post a NAM map a couple days ago that had 25" forecast near your location?

 

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah you got it lol- and is my memory going or did you post a NAM map a couple days ago that had 25" forecast near your location?

 

Oh yea... Nam was literally spot on up here to the exact inch in many places...you can count this as the 4th storm the nam has absolutely crushed from day 1 this winter...I mean atleast up here, it's remarkable how even from hr 84 Nam barely wavered 

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