40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Regardless of thermal nuances, the end result is slightly less snowfall. Matches up with my first call pretty well, now......coming into agreement with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: What were your 925mb temps at 00z and 06z tomorrow night? (I can't see 925 on my maps) -3 at 00z, -1 at 6z and 0 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -3 at 00z, -1 at 6z and 0 at 12z. You should rip aggregates at least through 06z of you have heavy precip...as long as the mid level warm nose stays below 0c which I think it narrowly does on this run. I'll def be following the cold air drain tomorrow during the day on mesoanalysis. I won't be surprised if models aren't aggressive enough with it given the high position. It's a great angle for us coming right down the CP of Maine east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You should rip aggregates at least through 06z of you have heavy precip...as long as the mid level warm nose stays below 0c which I think it narrowly does on this run. I'll def be following the cold air drain tomorrow during the day on mesoanalysis. I won't be surprised if models aren't aggressive enough with it given the high position. It's a great angle for us coming right down the CP of Maine east of the mountains. Do you think this has a chance of being a colder solution then the models are depicting? Me and my clients are getting frustrated with these borderline storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You should rip aggregates at least through 06z of you have heavy precip...as long as the mid level warm nose stays below 0c which I think it narrowly does on this run. I'll def be following the cold air drain tomorrow during the day on mesoanalysis. I won't be surprised if models aren't aggressive enough with it given the high position. It's a great angle for us coming right down the CP of Maine east of the mountains. Yea, I know.....I just don't like depending on that if the progged 2m temp is 36*, but I am beginning to lean plowable from my pad points nw....provided guidance doesn't warm tmw. 35.4/34 Cooling off faster again- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said: Do you think this has a chance of being a colder solution then the models are depicting? Me and my clients are getting frustrated with these borderline storms. Yeah it could end up colder than progged. Synoptically this is the type of setup that it happens in most frequently. I would watch very closely tomorrow at the real time data vs model progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Thanks, I figured since you said you were closey watching it that you may think it could end up colder. I guess we can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I know.....I just don't like depending on that if the progged 2m temp is 36* but I am beginning to lean plowable from my pad points nw....provided guidance doesn't warm tmw. 35.4/34 Cooling off faster again- That 2m temp might be trash though. We'll see. I feel like there will be a CF but you'll prob be west of it tomorrow evening. It may eventually push west but during the heavy stuff at least for several hours id expect it to be east of you. So while the model has like 36 there and 38 over Newburyport, it might be more like 33 there and 40 in eastern Essex county...it honestly wouldn't shock me either if you were like 31. Tracking those dew points will be big...id want to keep seeing those low 20s and upper teen funneling down the Maine coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hey all...have been lurking lately, enjoy the discussion, but just wanted to chime in...IMBY we've had a light mix of snow/rain for the past couple of hours, pretty much straight snow right now. 33.5ºF/31ºF. RPM (going back to Saturday) and even 4k NAM/HRRR in the near-term had a decent signal for some low-level moisture and it's definitely working out, at least here in the Merrimack Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Damn chilly out right now. Pretty gusty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Heading out for my run and I flipped on the floodlight..There's light snow falling which really surprised me. 33.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Coating overnight here. Back roads pretty slick. 30.6F Low levels drying out as the dews drop. Low 20s hitting MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Fluffy wet flakes and it's now 32.9 and cartops are white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Light snow here in Killingly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Damn... If this onshore stuff was snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 28.3F. SN- 0.25" new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, kbc360 said: Light snow here in Killingly too Very surprising..at least to me. I'd have to think this is a good omen for what happens later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very surprising..at least to me. I'd have to think this is a good omen for what happens later It's not a surprise. It's OES actually. Have mixed precip here too. The low levels were modeled cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Will head into work and analyze shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not a surprise. It's OES actually. Have mixed precip here too. The low levels were modeled cold enough. It is a surprise to me..and yesterday I remember you said to me it wasn't for my area I certainly didn't think I'd be at freezing and snowing this morning. Just hopeful that it's good omen for more frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is a surprise to me..and yesterday I remember you said to me it wasn't for my area I certainly didn't think I'd be at freezing and snowing this morning. Just hopeful that it's good omen for more frozen It's just stuff flying off the ocean. It's not big deal. 34.3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 been following the discussion over w/e and a bit confused about what i'd see this morning. Stepped outside to light -moderate snow. the local school's weather station is 31 with light wind (4mph) from north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Angus said: been following the discussion over w/e and a bit confused about what i'd see this morning. Stepped outside to light -moderate snow. the local school's weather station is 31 with light wind (4mph) from north. I'm guessing you live near ORH? Angus Young? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'd say this stuff is a little more widespread. It's cold enough for it to be snow at times even here at home as I et ready. But inland and elevation it's progged to be rather chilly. As the 850 and below cools, the delta T increases from water to air so this is what you have. Later on we may see this transition to a more coastal front setup over NE MA into ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm guessing you live near ORH? Angus Young? fiyah!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 32.3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm guessing you live near ORH? Angus Young? Oops, apologies for not identifying my location. Nope. Concord, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: fiyah!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd say this stuff is a little more widespread. It's cold enough for it to be snow at times even here at home as I et ready. But inland and elevation it's progged to be rather chilly. As the 850 and below cools, the delta T increases from water to air so this is what you have. Later on we may see this transition to a more coastal front setup over NE MA into ORH county. Mesos still enhance things a bit by midday near the CF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 S- Solid coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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