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Huge Damaging Nor'easter Obs


Damage In Tolland

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Expecting a lot of sleet here

Thinking back 2 weeks ago when we first floated the idea of a phase change event the hope was the cold in Canada would be deeper than it is. I am disappointed I did not see the super high heights up there this week. That torch was more than I envisioned.  My KU thoughts missed a critical element.

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thinking back 2 weeks ago when we first floated the idea of a phase change event the hope was the cold in Canada would be deeper than it is. I am disappointed I did not see the super high heights up there this week. That torch was more than I envisioned.  My KU thoughts missed a critical element.

Well yeah . But I think whatever we get tomorrow is gravy. A big winter type event for at least a portion of the storm. And north of 90 will have had 2 events in a 15 day WAN pattern. The last 2 days were def ugly with 50's. And Wed and Thurs this week could be well into 40's. Then the siege is over 

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44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thinking back 2 weeks ago when we first floated the idea of a phase change event the hope was the cold in Canada would be deeper than it is. I am disappointed I did not see the super high heights up there this week. That torch was more than I envisioned.  My KU thoughts missed a critical element.

Your ideas were not without merit...some of the particulars aren't working out..solid effort.

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Comparing the EURO and GFS in depth....thermal profiles at H925 is identical....the EURO is a little cooler at H85 and a hair colder at the surface.

Biggest discrepancy is H85.

Common denominator is that if we have another tick equivalent to the what we have received with each successive run since Friday night, then I am going to have a moderate helping of man-snow.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Comparing the EURO and GFS in depth....thermal profiles at H925 is identical....the EURO is a little cooler at H85 and a hair colder at the surface.

Biggest discrepancy is H85.

Common denominator is that if we have another tick equivalent to the what we have received with each successive run since Friday night, then I am going to have a moderate helping of man-snow.

At this point you gotta think if we have Super Lift ...it Gonna flip for a bit Tomm nite. As long as no warming trends.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro coming in a hair warmer....trend is done.

Looked slightly colder to me at 30 hours but then slightly warmer at 36...this is 850mb. Either way it was basically no change....but one minor shift could be a big deal in sensible wx so any wobble is going to seem a lot bigger than it actually is. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Looked slightly colder to me at 30 hours but then slightly warmer at 36...this is 850mb. Either way it was basically no change....but one minor shift could be a big deal so any wobble is going to seem a lot bigger than it actually is. 

Yea, its noise.

Overall thoughts are the same....coin flip here, but it needs to be a bit too warm in the low levels bc if it isn't, I will be cooked.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its noise.

Overall thoughts are the same....coin flip here, but it needs to be a bit too warm in the low levels bc if it isn't, I will be cooked.

 

What were your 925mb temps at 00z and 06z tomorrow night? (I can't see 925 on my maps)

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