Baum Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 In most winters this event is probably not thread worthy, but given some folks have not seen measurable snow since mid December it's worth starting one in my opinion. More importantly it signals a pattern shift to ridging in the west and troughing in the east with a pronounced northwest flow regime. The wave that will bring the chance for a few inches of wet snow is modeled inconsistently by a variety of models with no clear consensus on how it will play out. As of now LOT is favoring the slower medium strength of the European model. Irregardless after a 59 degree high yesterday the turn to a more wintry pattern has begun with perhaps the potential for a few more clippers in the final days of January. Lastly, no poster has established the "golden touch" in thread starting in this benign 2016-2017 winter so I figured it's worth a shot for a karma change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 lol at a thread about a "light snow event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Probably going to have to be in northern Iowa and up toward MSP to get into the better snows, with lighter stuff possible farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 42 minutes ago, Powerball said: lol at a thread about a "light snow event." I'm hoping it's the start of doing nickel and diming right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm hoping it's the start of doing nickel and diming right. I wouldn't hold my breath, especially for those SW of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Karma change denied. Truly, a stunningly bad January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Looking good for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 This could be a close call for us, but one good sign is that our high temperature today was apparently 2-3 degrees cooler than what was forecast, now we're going into the eve before the system arrives. Also seems like a fairly sharp gradient between the "Trace" zone and the 6-8" zone on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The 12z ECMWF was a bit farther south with the snow... more into southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 This system has a plume of pretty steep mid level lapse rates with it. Would not be surprised to see some reports of thundersnow where it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Somebody could see a foot out of this. Northern Iowa seems like a good place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Things have been trending upwards in Madison, under a WWA for 3 to 7 inches. Temps will be borderline at the onset and during the day Wednesday which might cut into accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 Backwash could put a dent in Chicago's futility hopes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Baum said: Backwash could put a dent in Chicago's futility hopes... Temps look a bit marginal during the snow, but even something like 0.5-1" would make it to where it would only take 1 more similar snowfall by the end of the month to put the bottom 10 out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Hard Winter Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, madwx said: Things have been trending upwards in Madison, under a WWA for 3 to 7 inches. Temps will be borderline at the onset and during the day Wednesday which might cut into accumulations Latest GFS gives Madison area almost and inch of QPF with subzero 850 temp and sub 540 thickness the entire period of precip. Have feeling we may have a winter storm warning put out by MKE before the day is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5-8" forecast for Madison. Advisory and not warning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Dry slot has reigned in this area for the afternoon, but it is now starting to fill in. Temperatures remained much lower than were forecast, but are still marginal at 33. A couple flakes fell 2 hours ago so unless air aloft has warmed substantially, I expect some snow to resume in an hour or two. Models have trended snowfall projections up in general due to trending colder, but I can say for certain that except for areas west and north, this isn't exactly going to be a blizzard (in the metro). Again, though, we're right along a very tight gradient where 15 miles northwest is progged to see 2-5 inches and 15 miles southeast, less than an inch. With that in mind, I would actually be surprised if we didn't at least get a solid 1-2" because we were expecting "up to an inch" in a forecast that also suggested our high temperature would be 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I think there's a chance it could get interesting even down into far northern IL (maybe Chi metro?) tonight/overnight. Not so much in terms of amounts but potential convective influence could result in periods/bursts of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Some 7-10" reports out in the Des Moines cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I'm close to the mixing line. A bit ago a narrow bright band on radar produced a burst of massive 1.5+" diameter flakes here. They didn't add up to anything, but flakes that size are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I'm close to the mixing line. A bit ago a narrow bright band on radar produced a burst of massive 1.5+" diameter flakes here. They didn't add up to anything, but flakes that size are rare. Cool. Only time I think I've seen flakes that large was 12/24/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 There's a heavy band moving through La Crosse. I'm curious to know what Daddylonglegs is getting up there, but noticed he hasn't posted since August. Any idea what happened to him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: There's a heavy band moving through La Crosse. I'm curious to know what Daddylonglegs is getting up there, but noticed he hasn't posted since August. Any idea what happened to him? Good question. He probably has just faded away like many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 1125 PM CST Potential is increasing for a short but quick burst of convective snow/sleet across Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties between 2 and 4 a.m. resulting in minor accumulation and possible sharply reduced visibility. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong mid-level jet (115 kt per RAP) and vort max nosing into northwest Illinois, with waves of convective echoes seen on radar near the Mississippi River Valley, confirming increasing instability and 850-925mb f-gen right below the unstable layer. Short term model guidance, while often excellent only a few hours out, looks like it could be a tier or two of counties too far northwest with the brief heavy precipitation. The 00Z NAM for instance analyzed 925mb temperatures 2-3C too warm at ILX and DVN, and the 04Z RAP is too north with its surface low compared to hand analysis. The RAP and NARRE-TL show high likelihood of at or above 0.25" near Dubuque and Jo Daviess County, IL, in about 3 hours, and with a slight shift east in this, which the convective-allowing HRRR has been trending, that would be more so over Rockford. Will continue to watch closely and handle with a Graphical NOWcast. Limiting factors for appreciable accumulation are forward speed of any convective showers at 50 mph and surface wet bulb values of 33-34. Still though, could be quite a quick little burst in the far northwest CWA. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 1125 PM CST Potential is increasing for a short but quick burst of convective snow/sleet across Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties between 2 and 4 a.m. resulting in minor accumulation and possible sharply reduced visibility. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong mid-level jet (115 kt per RAP) and vort max nosing into northwest Illinois, with waves of convective echoes seen on radar near the Mississippi River Valley, confirming increasing instability and 850-925mb f-gen right below the unstable layer. Short term model guidance, while often excellent only a few hours out, looks like it could be a tier or two of counties too far northwest with the brief heavy precipitation. The 00Z NAM for instance analyzed 925mb temperatures 2-3C too warm at ILX and DVN, and the 04Z RAP is too north with its surface low compared to hand analysis. The RAP and NARRE-TL show high likelihood of at or above 0.25" near Dubuque and Jo Daviess County, IL, in about 3 hours, and with a slight shift east in this, which the convective-allowing HRRR has been trending, that would be more so over Rockford. Will continue to watch closely and handle with a Graphical NOWcast. Limiting factors for appreciable accumulation are forward speed of any convective showers at 50 mph and surface wet bulb values of 33-34. Still though, could be quite a quick little burst in the far northwest CWA. MTF Had a burst of sleet all the way down here in Grundy county with the temp/dew at 37/37. Kinda was surprised to hear the sleet on the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Maybe Chicago can get off the schneid for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Had a period of mixed precip last night/early this morning, before it turned to rain. Looks like another round of precip later this afternoon and into tonight. Should be rain to snow, with a DAB possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 @ /\ DAB+ MI lookin' nice-n-wintery Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I only received a brief dusting of snow last night before the precip turned to light sleet/rain and moved out. I should see my first/last January snow accumulation this afternoon, perhaps up to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Non scientific viewpoint; gassed up the snowblower I got for Christmas. Hadn't even test started it as of yet. If we hit .6 I'm running the puppy. I smell over performer on deck. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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