penndotguy Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 yeah It appears you are going to have to be way up in elevation to have any chance of accumulating snow, with temps above normal for the last week and temps during precip. marginal at best, Wake me when its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 i smell sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Its the NAM. It counts sleet as snow. Its usually a garbage model. That still doesn't answer why the snow(sleet) map is so bullish even this close to the event. Are 850s really going to be THAT cold for sleet to be the predominant precip type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 NAM ain't to bad inside of 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, wederwarrior said: NAM ain't to bad inside of 36 hours It's over doing the cooling due to false intense rates. The snow/sleet in SEPA will not verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, wederwarrior said: NAM ain't to bad inside of 36 hours Look at RGEM, looks like over 1" liquid falls as sleet for most of Lehigh valley after 3pm. carbon and Monroe 1.5" liquid as sleet!!!! Heavy wind gusts too, this will be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 That's 4.5" of sleet in the poconos !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I still think during heavy precip. rates it pulls the column down and mixes w/then changes to Snow,then back and forth as rates vary(in the Poc's); even the n/w burbs of Philly could see some winter p-type during hvy rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS dropped qpf and hits us with a dry slot. See others kicking it to the curb but ignoring the GFS has not been wise this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just for another view...just saw the TV Met,from Scr/WB who I think is the best up here...he's going with 3/6 in the SoPo's and 6/10 NoPo's...He did state this was so close that it's gonna probably end up a nowcast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Winds are going....face-burn alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 32.8 here as the day's about to begin. I can understand their reasoning for 'sleet' , but downgrading to a WWA solely because of that? i'm not so sure. boundary layers will be so tight... we could be talking about 2" of sleet...or 15" inches of snow. (2" of sleet by the way, shut down route 80 here years ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Tabernacle, NJ - Power just went out for a good 5-10 seconds. The fact that the storm has barely begun and the power's struggling already makes me not very confident in keeping power on for much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Bacon Strips said: 32.8 here as the day's about to begin. I can understand their reasoning for 'sleet' , but downgrading to a WWA solely because of that? i'm not so sure. boundary layers will be so tight... we could be talking about 2" of sleet...or 15" inches of snow. (2" of sleet by the way, shut down route 80 here years ago) Their afd from this morning noted now casting and very low confidence on what occurs in north counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Wind is really starting to pick up here, temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 So there is a chance currently 39.6 in glen mill and dropping, if i get to 36 by 11 Am i think there is a chance for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 down to 38.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Down in Wildwood, NJ. Cold and windy. Not a drop of rain so far aside from some mist yesterday. Based on hrrr this may end up just being a big wind maker down here in S NJ. NAM qpf is already way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Latest NAM is, um, getting interesting for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Steve -yep see my post in vendor thread - Wxsim went with sleet/snow mix and heavy at times by 630pm this evening. However, that is with the 12z NAM and still the old 6z GFS so maybe just us getting NAMed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Guessing obs. for THIS storm go here as opposed to the 2016-17 winter obs. subforum. Peak gust of 63mph@10:11am(1/23). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hot off the presses Quote High Wind Warning in effect until 4 PM EST this afternoon... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High Wind Warning... which is in effect until 4 PM EST this afternoon. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect. * Locations... southeast Pennsylvania and a portion of southern New Jersey. * Winds... east northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * Timing... the strongest winds are expected to occur from now through mid afternoon. * Wind impacts... strong winds may blow down limbs... trees... and power lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. * Situational awareness... strongest wind gusts as of 10 am have been from around 45 to 50 mph in this portion of the warning area area. Winds are expected to increase during midday. * Outlook... Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected late this afternoon and early tonight after the strongest winds have occurred, prior to 4 PM. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 ^ I'm pretty damn sure I hit 40-50mph a couple times... 37.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: ^ I'm pretty damn sure I hit 40-50mph a couple times... 37.3F 36.9F....temps crawling down. Rain moving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS dryslots us through the storm if this was snow I would be heart attacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I was initially surprised that the wind advisory only went until 4:00pm. Now the HWW goes until 4:00pm, maybe that will be extended/replaced with a wind advisory for the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Here in East Nantmeal some light rain temp down to 36.9 wind howling from the NE with gusts to 15mph (sheltered spot here) high gust so far 29mph In Sea Isle City NJ 42.6 high gust recorded on my station there so far has been 46 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Down to 36.7F. Very low clouds...practically dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Low tide here in North Wildwood....water already near dune line high tide around 430pm. Just got back from Hereford Inlet....absolutely brutal. Strongest winds I've personally ever felt. Guessing sustained 35 gusting 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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