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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass gets replaced with marginal CP (continental polar) air and I think you are a lock for temps below 32 for awhile. I am sure you are looking at model srfc temp output (which is cold on the euro), but as you know...your spot is good to lock in the cold, so situational awareness tells me to take 'em down for your area. At least as of right now.

 

GFS looks lost in this as it has no icea where to put low pressure. The NAM just went non-hydrostatic and is tossed. 

thanks.

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Mike there is a cold front slipping down from the north on Sat eve I think.  It ain't below average but it is cold enough for us.  May not be a big snowstorm, but should be a big winter storm.  You should not get sucked into the SNE perspective on storms...to our s and e this ain't looking great, so thus more of a negative vibe.  Still very interesting out your way and up my way.  Lets see what 12z holds.

Was the qpf still well over an inch for all?


I'll keep that in mind, though i do view myself as sne.

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Scott is the voice of reason. Hopefully the GFS put too much emphasis on that initial surge of moisture it basically formed a initial low that cut west and the main storm was disorganized and west.  Even the more steadfast EPS was slight west and warmer with the mean track and in an area like Kevin and myself it makes a difference.  Hopefully we trend back the other way today but odds favor GC and CNE/NNE.

 

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5 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Scott is the voice of reason. Hopefully the GFS put too much emphasis on that initial surge of moisture it basically formed a initial low that cut west and the main storm was disorganized and west.  Even the more steadfast EPS was slight west and warmer with the mean track and in an area like Kevin and myself it makes a difference.  Hopefully we trend back the other way today but odds favor GC and CNE/NNE.

 

Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. 

Things could change at 12z today too. I would wait.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. 

I wouldn't lock anything in yet. Euro didn't trend favorably with block but its still pretty close to something bigger. Even without snow id worry about ZR and IP over interior. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean the signal is there for decent probabilities of freezing rain on the analogs. 

NFZR006_gfs215F096.png

High is pretty classic for ZR...got the dry polar feed to offset latent heating. 

Could be a scalp fest too and even snowier...guess we'll have to wait and see how that block trends. That's still the key for this I believe...down south will have a say too. 

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