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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well, i suck cuz i dont see the better look. mid levels are warmer to me and I cant pin down this oozing high. doesnt matter at this stage though, the changes will wobble colder to warmer andback again, final solution will split the difference. 

This run looked a little slower to get the precip in, so that's prob why its warmer on same panels...but I wouldn't worry about it yet.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run looked a little slower to get the precip in, so that's prob why its warmer on same panels...but I wouldn't worry about it yet.

I dont get why the gfs never wraps up coastals in the mid levels. when i micro analyze stuff like this with other guidance, as a classroom learning session for myself, i see the mid layers cool on the west side and get practically sucked in. The gfs, on the other hand, just doesnt like doing it. does it have a progressive bias or am I not be teaching myself anything to learn? ha. 

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21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Nothing to see here folks.  Move along to the EC.  Have a good one.

You are not fooling anyone, you are in the best location in SNE for this one.  I'm already locking 4"+ for you.

(Reality is, we are both CNE in terms of sensible winter wx,  so I expect a wintery Tuesday, regardless of model shifts the next 48hrs)

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GFS is the furthest NW of all guidance. Color me skeptical. It's a red flag being that its bias is to be SE of guidance, therefore it would not surprise me if the 6z GFS is an off run. I don't see one ensemble member as far nw as the 6z GFS. 

6z GEFS mean has SLP track from just south of LI to just south of CC and then NE from there...

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GFS is the furthest NW of all guidance. Color me skeptical. It's a red flag being that its bias is to be SE of guidance, therefore it would not surprise me if the 6z GFS is an off run. I don't see one ensemble member as far nw as the 6z GFS. 

6z GEFS mean has SLP track from just south of LI to just south of CC and then NE from there...

I agree the 6z jumped about 200 miles NW from 00z

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6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

EPS are a little NW of the BM, but they did get a little warmer

Looking at the individual ensemble members there are way more than plenty to keep most folks here interested at least for another 24 hours.

The surface is still quite cold despite the mid-level temps.  Big ZR/IP in the ORH Hills and Berkshires with snow north of that.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the individual ensemble members there are way more than plenty to keep most folks here interested at least for another 24 hours.

The surface is still quite cold despite the mid-level temps.  Big ZR/IP in the ORH Hills and Berkshires with snow north of that.

Yeah, starting to think this is big IP/ZR somewhere in nrn MA/SNH/SVT into adjacent ME.

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Scott--where is the ZR threat coming from in MA?  Wouldn't the antecedent warmth tend to make  that more rain? 

 

As far as IP goes, I could give a rat's ass.....

The airmass gets replaced with marginal CP (continental polar) air and I think you are a lock for temps below 32 for awhile. I am sure you are looking at model srfc temp output (which is cold on the euro), but as you know...your spot is good to lock in the cold, so situational awareness tells me to take 'em down for your area. At least as of right now.

 

GFS looks lost in this as it has no icea where to put low pressure. The NAM just went non-hydrostatic and is tossed. 

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Mike there is a cold front slipping down from the north on Sat eve I think.  It ain't below average but it is cold enough for us.  May not be a big snowstorm, but should be a big winter storm.  You should not get sucked into the SNE perspective on storms...to our s and e this ain't looking great, so thus more of a negative vibe.  Still very interesting out your way and up my way.  Lets see what 12z holds.

Was the qpf still well over an inch for all?

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