ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, i suck cuz i dont see the better look. mid levels are warmer to me and I cant pin down this oozing high. doesnt matter at this stage though, the changes will wobble colder to warmer andback again, final solution will split the difference. This run looked a little slower to get the precip in, so that's prob why its warmer on same panels...but I wouldn't worry about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Anyways, not staying up for Euro tonight...hopefully it trends stronger with block...and holds the same location as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This run looked a little slower to get the precip in, so that's prob why its warmer on same panels...but I wouldn't worry about it yet. I dont get why the gfs never wraps up coastals in the mid levels. when i micro analyze stuff like this with other guidance, as a classroom learning session for myself, i see the mid layers cool on the west side and get practically sucked in. The gfs, on the other hand, just doesnt like doing it. does it have a progressive bias or am I not be teaching myself anything to learn? ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Nothing to see here folks. Move along to the EC. Have a good one. You are not fooling anyone, you are in the best location in SNE for this one. I'm already locking 4"+ for you. (Reality is, we are both CNE in terms of sensible winter wx, so I expect a wintery Tuesday, regardless of model shifts the next 48hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Anyone still up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Anyone still up for the Euro? I'm here but no access to The King.......can anyone preach it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I'm glad I didn't pin hopes on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Well that got ugly real fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS looks terrible. Tbe trend is not our friend. West and warmer. Euro was still decent for MPM but a step in the wrong direction for many. Glad I kept expectations limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The euro is definitely a little warmer than 12z. 6z GFS seems like an outlier to me with a track over SNE given the ensembles, but i suppose that is within the envelope of possible solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS is the furthest NW of all guidance. Color me skeptical. It's a red flag being that its bias is to be SE of guidance, therefore it would not surprise me if the 6z GFS is an off run. I don't see one ensemble member as far nw as the 6z GFS. 6z GEFS mean has SLP track from just south of LI to just south of CC and then NE from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 EPS track same as GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: GFS is the furthest NW of all guidance. Color me skeptical. It's a red flag being that its bias is to be SE of guidance, therefore it would not surprise me if the 6z GFS is an off run. I don't see one ensemble member as far nw as the 6z GFS. 6z GEFS mean has SLP track from just south of LI to just south of CC and then NE from there... I agree the 6z jumped about 200 miles NW from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS track same as GEFS? EPS are a little NW of the BM, but they did get a little warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, wx2fish said: EPS are a little NW of the BM, but they did get a little warmer Why warmer? Weaker block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You are in a good spot for a mixed bag. What a meatball you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: EPS are a little NW of the BM, but they did get a little warmer Looking at the individual ensemble members there are way more than plenty to keep most folks here interested at least for another 24 hours. The surface is still quite cold despite the mid-level temps. Big ZR/IP in the ORH Hills and Berkshires with snow north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The Euro ensemble mean gives you >6" of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Euro ensemble mean gives you >6" of snow and sleet. Don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looking at the individual ensemble members there are way more than plenty to keep most folks here interested at least for another 24 hours. The surface is still quite cold despite the mid-level temps. Big ZR/IP in the ORH Hills and Berkshires with snow north of that. Yeah, starting to think this is big IP/ZR somewhere in nrn MA/SNH/SVT into adjacent ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Euro ensemble mean gives you >6" of snow and sleet. After Tuesday's debacle, color me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah, starting to think this is big IP/ZR somewhere in nrn MA/SNH/SVT into adjacent ME. Scott--where is the ZR threat coming from in MA? Wouldn't the antecedent warmth tend to make that more rain? As far as IP goes, I could give a rat's ass..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are in a good spot for a mixed bag. What a meatball you are. It really makes people angry when he does this and then he gets all the snow while most of the rest don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, starting to think this is big IP/ZR somewhere in nrn MA/SNH/SVT into adjacent ME. All rain for CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: After Tuesday's debacle, color me skeptical. I'd color you skeptical regardless of what happened Tuesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Scott--where is the ZR threat coming from in MA? Wouldn't the antecedent warmth tend to make that more rain? As far as IP goes, I could give a rat's ass..... The airmass gets replaced with marginal CP (continental polar) air and I think you are a lock for temps below 32 for awhile. I am sure you are looking at model srfc temp output (which is cold on the euro), but as you know...your spot is good to lock in the cold, so situational awareness tells me to take 'em down for your area. At least as of right now. GFS looks lost in this as it has no icea where to put low pressure. The NAM just went non-hydrostatic and is tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All rain for CT? There could be IP and ZR..esp NW hills. For you I think you flip after some sort of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Mike there is a cold front slipping down from the north on Sat eve I think. It ain't below average but it is cold enough for us. May not be a big snowstorm, but should be a big winter storm. You should not get sucked into the SNE perspective on storms...to our s and e this ain't looking great, so thus more of a negative vibe. Still very interesting out your way and up my way. Lets see what 12z holds. Was the qpf still well over an inch for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Why warmer? Weaker block? slightly, but the mean is below freezing for you the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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