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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...we get that a lot up here when it's like -8C in the low levels and torchy aloft. Mostly sleet, but cold enough for low level nucleation and snow grains mixed in.

Yeah it often looks like dust in the air or something when the sleet is falling...the low level small crystals.  Pretty cool.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...we get that a lot up here when it's like -8C in the low levels and torchy aloft. Mostly sleet, but cold enough for low level nucleation and snow grains mixed in.

Was thinking that was a possibility down here as well for a little while especially if we can get a little low level boost near the CF 

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You too?  Bald is beautiful...

The actual website updates later than the iwin zones link that Jeff sent me. 

Regardless of how it plays out, thanks for all of your hard work in trying to forecast this sob.

It was a late forecast today too. Not often I don't get the AFD out until almost 5 PM.

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Catching up a bit now...

I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs.

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40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Catching up a bit now...

I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs.

I figure if we get the heavies, it'll be snow.  If, as Jbenet was saying earlier, that it might be mostly a 6 hour thump...I could see all snow, transitioning to sleet once the good lift is gone.  What do you think about that?

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53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Catching up a bit now...

I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs.

It's done well with a few warm tongue events this year. And, it's a sharp intrusion too....those happen like that. 

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20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I figure if we get the heavies, it'll be snow.  If, as Jbenet was saying earlier, that it might be mostly a 6 hour thump...I could see all snow, transitioning to sleet once the good lift is gone.  What do you think about that?

I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow.

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Getting home and looking over models there has been 3 to 4 cycles (18-24)hrs of now Mid level lows trending slightly nw with each cycle. No shock mid level warming  followed. 

What a nice set up if models didnt trend back with huge forcing tonite ne mass.

Still now casting but where not gonna see mid level warming bust cold with mid level lows trending nw are we?

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow.

One of the perks of living up here is being so close to Brian. Even better is being just north. So   I can just read his posts and get an idea of what to expect as when things get this boarder line I have no idea what exactly will happen..

26.0F and waiting.....

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow.

The NAM is the furthest nw with the SLP and mid level centers. Does that concern you? The Euro and GFS are at least 100 miles south/southeast.

I feel like we've seen this movie before--in the case of globals versus mesos...

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18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The NAM is the furthest nw with the SLP and mid level centers. Does that concern you? The Euro and GFS are at least 100 miles south/southeast.

I feel like we've seen this movie before--in the case of globals versus mesos...

The GFS looked great for snow in S NH for about 6 straights cycles. Now the last 4 cycles starting with 0z last nite shifted the Mid levels lows a wee bit NW each time. This had added up to a significant trend over last day and its a ugly one for snow lovers

The Euro also moved NW with its 5H and 7h Lows with the track and the orientation of them, and thus the mid levels warmed on both GFS/EURO. 

IF we are talking about Maine E facing slopes that is up for grabs but the trend the last 18-24 hours is undeniable on GFS and EURO as well to a lesser but obvious extent.  Ya there is a definite Now cast element, i just wonder that by the time the good precip reaches C NH the mid levels have the 775-825 warm area.

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HRRR struggling with the strong east flow and the topography...going waayyyy too crazy.

Has the mountain spines up here getting 2-5" of QPF with a quarter inch in the west slope downslope areas.  Even convection season won't give this variance lol.

Nice 6-7" of QPF in the next 18 hours at MWN lol.  21" of sleet there.  HRRR on crack.

hrrr_t_precip_neng_19_zpsbyxywub3.png

 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

HRRR struggling with the strong east flow and the topography...going waayyyy too crazy.

Has the mountain spines up here getting 2-5" of QPF with a quarter inch in the west slope downslope areas.  Even convection season won't give this variance lol.

Nice 6-7" of QPF in the next 18 hours at MWN lol.  21" of sleet there.  HRRR on crack.

hrrr_t_precip_neng_19_zpsbyxywub3.png

 

You know what I've noticed the last few years going back to that Morch firehose storm. The meso models in particular place the downslope areas too Far East  . I remember in that storm they had it right over my area and had a relative max over the CTRV and another one to east. In other words they push the max west of where it ends up in reality . My theory is they are thinking the strong east wind is pushing the qpf max west of where it actually falls. And missing the downslope component 

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19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The GFS looked great for snow in S NH for about 6 straights cycles. Now the last 4 cycles starting with 0z last nite shifted the Mid levels lows a wee bit NW each time. This had added up to a significant trend over last day. 

The Euro also moved NW with its 5H and 7h Lows with the track and the orientation of them, and thus the mid levels warmed on both GFS/EURO. 

IF we are talking about Maine E facing slopes that is up for grabs but the trend the last 18-24 hours is undeniable on GFS and EURO as well to a lesser but obvious extent. 

I'm not seeing a NW H500 trend on the euro at all. In fact, I see the opposite- a general trend SE and an earlier close off.

The GFS made minute tics, NW at H500, but it is now in agreement with the 12z euro at hr 18.

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