dendrite Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah could I guess. Yeah...we get that a lot up here when it's like -8C in the low levels and torchy aloft. Mostly sleet, but cold enough for low level nucleation and snow grains mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: No update from GYX yet....still a WSWatch. Chris must be pulling his hair out. What hair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...we get that a lot up here when it's like -8C in the low levels and torchy aloft. Mostly sleet, but cold enough for low level nucleation and snow grains mixed in. Yeah it often looks like dust in the air or something when the sleet is falling...the low level small crystals. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What hair? You too? Bald is beautiful... The actual website updates later than the iwin zones link that Jeff sent me. Regardless of how it plays out, thanks for all of your hard work in trying to forecast this sob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...we get that a lot up here when it's like -8C in the low levels and torchy aloft. Mostly sleet, but cold enough for low level nucleation and snow grains mixed in. Was thinking that was a possibility down here as well for a little while especially if we can get a little low level boost near the CF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: You too? Bald is beautiful... The actual website updates later than the iwin zones link that Jeff sent me. Regardless of how it plays out, thanks for all of your hard work in trying to forecast this sob. It was a late forecast today too. Not often I don't get the AFD out until almost 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Catching up a bit now... I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Since moving from ASH to LWM nearly every storm minus the south shore CJ has had a CF between LWM and ASH Dreading drive home to April wx Looks like we may pound 2" wide flakes bewtween 10 and 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 At a friends house up in Colrain (1100') 30/28. Overcast and breezy. Not a flake yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: Catching up a bit now... I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs. I figure if we get the heavies, it'll be snow. If, as Jbenet was saying earlier, that it might be mostly a 6 hour thump...I could see all snow, transitioning to sleet once the good lift is gone. What do you think about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what happened on the south shore in a prolific 1994 CJ event. It was pounding dendrites with sleet from the Synoptics aloft. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: Catching up a bit now... I'm sure it's been covered for other backyards, but the GFS has been ticking slowly warmer from H75-H8 here. It's still snow, but I agree with Will about leaning sleet. I'm not sure if it's a convection thing with mid-level latent heating that the NAM can sometimes nail, but I've seen it score on these warm layers too often up here when it's not backing down. The NAM has a vertical level advantage on the GFS too, but that doesn't explain the euro being so cold. Again, maybe it's a convective parameter thing. We'll find out which side is winning soon based on obs. It's done well with a few warm tongue events this year. And, it's a sharp intrusion too....those happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I figure if we get the heavies, it'll be snow. If, as Jbenet was saying earlier, that it might be mostly a 6 hour thump...I could see all snow, transitioning to sleet once the good lift is gone. What do you think about that? I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow. The RAP continues to bring sleet pretty far N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Getting home and looking over models there has been 3 to 4 cycles (18-24)hrs of now Mid level lows trending slightly nw with each cycle. No shock mid level warming followed. What a nice set up if models didnt trend back with huge forcing tonite ne mass. Still now casting but where not gonna see mid level warming bust cold with mid level lows trending nw are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow. One of the perks of living up here is being so close to Brian. Even better is being just north. So I can just read his posts and get an idea of what to expect as when things get this boarder line I have no idea what exactly will happen.. 26.0F and waiting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I'm leaning sleet. I want to see the NAM caving big time at 00z before leaning mostly snow. The NAM is the furthest nw with the SLP and mid level centers. Does that concern you? The Euro and GFS are at least 100 miles south/southeast. I feel like we've seen this movie before--in the case of globals versus mesos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The RAP continues to bring sleet pretty far N. This has been a sleet storm for days straight to Montreal.... still a fun winter weather event. The mid-level warmth seems to be almost worse as you head further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The NAM is the furthest nw with the SLP and mid level centers. Does that concern you? The Euro and GFS are at least 100 miles south/southeast. I feel like we've seen this movie before--in the case of globals versus mesos... The GFS looked great for snow in S NH for about 6 straights cycles. Now the last 4 cycles starting with 0z last nite shifted the Mid levels lows a wee bit NW each time. This had added up to a significant trend over last day and its a ugly one for snow lovers The Euro also moved NW with its 5H and 7h Lows with the track and the orientation of them, and thus the mid levels warmed on both GFS/EURO. IF we are talking about Maine E facing slopes that is up for grabs but the trend the last 18-24 hours is undeniable on GFS and EURO as well to a lesser but obvious extent. Ya there is a definite Now cast element, i just wonder that by the time the good precip reaches C NH the mid levels have the 775-825 warm area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 HRRR struggling with the strong east flow and the topography...going waayyyy too crazy. Has the mountain spines up here getting 2-5" of QPF with a quarter inch in the west slope downslope areas. Even convection season won't give this variance lol. Nice 6-7" of QPF in the next 18 hours at MWN lol. 21" of sleet there. HRRR on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: HRRR struggling with the strong east flow and the topography...going waayyyy too crazy. Has the mountain spines up here getting 2-5" of QPF with a quarter inch in the west slope downslope areas. Even convection season won't give this variance lol. Nice 6-7" of QPF in the next 18 hours at MWN lol. 21" of sleet there. HRRR on crack. You know what I've noticed the last few years going back to that Morch firehose storm. The meso models in particular place the downslope areas too Far East . I remember in that storm they had it right over my area and had a relative max over the CTRV and another one to east. In other words they push the max west of where it ends up in reality . My theory is they are thinking the strong east wind is pushing the qpf max west of where it actually falls. And missing the downslope component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The GFS looked great for snow in S NH for about 6 straights cycles. Now the last 4 cycles starting with 0z last nite shifted the Mid levels lows a wee bit NW each time. This had added up to a significant trend over last day. The Euro also moved NW with its 5H and 7h Lows with the track and the orientation of them, and thus the mid levels warmed on both GFS/EURO. IF we are talking about Maine E facing slopes that is up for grabs but the trend the last 18-24 hours is undeniable on GFS and EURO as well to a lesser but obvious extent. I'm not seeing a NW H500 trend on the euro at all. In fact, I see the opposite- a general trend SE and an earlier close off. The GFS made minute tics, NW at H500, but it is now in agreement with the 12z euro at hr 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The 18z NAM is too far tucked with the position of the SLP at hr 18. The NAM will cave to the EURO/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 You've got brightbanding back to ALB. I don't think 100 miles means much. I don't think the warm layer is very spatially dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 18z NAM is too far tucked with the position of the SLP at hr 18. The NAM will cave to the EURO/GFS. Yup, 0z Nam is a few tics east of the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Well I will give J credit. The NAM wetbulb analysis for here is 4C colder in the warm layer than the 18z at 6hr was. Still glancing it over more. I hope he's right and it's mostly snow. He's been following it more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, 0z Nam is a few tics east of the 18z run So does that just prolong our IP in coastal areas, or do you think it gives us more snow and less IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, toller65 said: So does that just prolong our IP in coastal areas, or do you think it gives us more snow and less IP? Probably does not change anything on the coast, It was minimal but probably will affect the NW zones some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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