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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a huge and cold layer 850 and below on the soundings and it won't go anywhere soon during the overnight. I'd lean scalping too over ZR in some areas.

Yeah - I mean I guess it depends on how warm above that? The NAM and NCAR ensembles are real torches around 800mb... like >+4C which would be ZR but with the GFS and Euro still not showing it I'd lean scalping. 

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's the way I'm leaning too. The real deep warm air doesn't arrive until pretty late tomorrow, even on the NAM.

Though the ski resorts might get a good glaze being father aloft to begin with. 

Yeah I've seen this be wet ZR/IP mix above 3000ft and just scalping the the lower elevations with longer residence time in the cold air for the lower els.

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah - I mean I guess it depends on how warm above that? The NAM and NCAR ensembles are real torches around 800mb... like >+4C which would be ZR but with the GFS and Euro still not showing it I'd lean scalping. 

I was saying this more like nrn MA or SNH area. Maybe a narrow area gets it? It's a tough call when something like +3C at 800 would mean scalping, but 3.5C a hair below that could melt all cores and you get ZR. Maybe a narrow area further south in MA gets decent accretion.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was saying this more like nrn MA or SNH area. Maybe a narrow area gets it? It's a tough call when something like +3C at 800 would mean scalping, but 3.5C a hair below that could melt all cores and you get ZR. Maybe a narrow area further south in MA gets decent accretion.

Yeah if someone does manage decent icing (like over a quarter inch accretion), I think it would be confined to a fairly narrow zone.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still amazing at how different short term guidance is...RAP has a monster warm tongue at 800mb by 06z tonight...not even close to snow south of MHT really.

HRRR/RAP both seem to be solidly in the NAM camp at this stage. HRRR is little toned down from the RAP but the same theme. Seems there would be a little snow on the front end on the HRRR south of MHT

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

HRRR/RAP both seem to be solidly in the NAM camp at this stage. HRRR is little toned down from the RAP but the same theme

Yeah I'm definitely leaning more and more toward a lot of sleet at this stage. I don't really see a reason to go snowier right now.

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