STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd feel a lot better about a little snow bomb if we were just 1C colder than guidance has right now. This feels like a lot of sleet with occasional pounding aggregates when it gets really heavy...but never truly ripping pure snow very long and struggling to keep the lift strong enough. We may still end up colder...guidance could easily be trying to advect the warm tongue in too aggressively given the high placement...I mean, we still have a closed anti-cyclone in the mid-levels north of Maine this evening, so we'll see how it goes. But it would be a much easier call if everything was printing out about 1C colder in the profile. Will quick quesion Do those Skew data profiles do a good job of incorporating upslope cooling. I think that's significant question for E slope of Berks/ and Esp ORH hills could imagine KFIT airport at 35 and sleet while 600' higher on west end of town has a 8" of paste. I recall that happening before in 2009-2010 with higher amounts (I think the storm right before the warm retro bomb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Once again, BOX forgets its CWA also borders VT. Given the uncertainty, have blended the forecast guidance for now. Have gone with 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet across interior northern MA. If we trend colder certainly may see 6+ inches of snow near the NH border, a milder solution may result in an inch or two of mainly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will quick quesion Do those Skew data profiles do a good job of incorporating upslope cooling. I think that's significant question for E slope of Berks/ and Esp ORH hills could imagine KFIT airport at 35 and sleet while 600' higher on west end of town has a 8" of paste. I recall that happening before in 2009-2010 with higher amounts (I think the storm right before the warm retro bomb) On the GFS, they wouldn't show it well since the resolution isn't very high. RGEM was showing this at times though and so has the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Since the GGEM was the first to sniff this out, I'm going with it LOL. The model differences for ENY are pretty crazy with such short lead time. So many things that could go right and so many that could go wrong. (NAM + (GGEM + RGEM)/2)/2 = GFS. I guess at this point a nice blend is the way to go. 37F / 29F here with steady temp and dewpoint. Waiting for the cold. BTW, NAM gives me .75" and GGEM gives me 2". And the storm arrives in 7 hours or so......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I don't see anything obvious to make me think the mid-levels are going to be significantly colder than guidance so far. I'd prob take the under on the low levels though given the dewpoints funneling down the Maine coast. I'd be favoring a sleet bomb right now over interior MA....but we'll see how all the nowcast stuff trends. Definitely not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't see anything obvious to make me think the mid-levels are going to be significantly colder than guidance so far. I'd prob take the under on the low levels though given the dewpoints funneling down the Maine coast. I'd be favoring a sleet bomb right now over interior MA....but we'll see how all the nowcast stuff trends. Definitely not an easy forecast. Sleet to zr south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Seems like an incredibly dicey forecast all over the place. I have a sleet fest on the NAM, decent snow on the GFS, almost all rain on the SREF. GYX Quote THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF VARIABLES THAT NEED WATCHING..LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Aircraft soundings are real cold in that 860mb layer. You only need to get to 1K to hit 32 near Logan. Current obs FWIW: OWD (49') = 39 MQE (630') = 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't see anything obvious to make me think the mid-levels are going to be significantly colder than guidance so far. I'd prob take the under on the low levels though given the dewpoints funneling down the Maine coast. I'd be favoring a sleet bomb right now over interior MA....but we'll see how all the nowcast stuff trends. Definitely not an easy forecast. I agree. I feel like in these type of events it always looks so close to an isothermal paste bomb but unless there is constant --omega it ends up a sleet/parachute mess and that just doesn't happen often. I'd go 1-4'' with sleet NW of 495 and esp N of Route 2 if I was making a forecast. I wouldn't be shocked to wake up to 7'' of man snow but I wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The AMDAR soundings around MHT are showing -9C at 840 mb, and -0.5C up at 750 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sleet to zr south? ha, I sense nervousness that if you can't scrape some sleet and zr out of this, winter is beginning to flow down your flooded hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Current obs FWIW: OWD (49') = 39 MQE (630') = 33 TAN (40') = 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, I sense nervousness that if you can't scrape some sleet and zr out of this, winter is beginning to flow down your flooded hills. Not at all ..Ryan has 1-2" of Sleet 84 N and W..Some of the meso stuff has some good ice accretion and Tippy was favoring ice as well...CAD is strong with this one..we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: TAN (40') = 37 Even in winter OWD is a swamp. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The AMDAR soundings around MHT are showing -9C at 840 mb, and -0.5C up at 750 mb. A little warmer than the GFS at 18z at 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: A little warmer than the GFS at 18z at 750mb. No RH on that sounding, but we can infer there is plenty of room to wet bulb that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Current obs FWIW: OWD (49') = 39 MQE (630') = 33 MQE is so close later with huge forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: No RH on that sounding, but we can infer there is plenty of room to wet bulb that down. True and it's probably just noise anyway. I'll feel pretty good if we're snowing at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: MQE is so close later with huge forcing Would be a fun night for a hike to the top! Dropped 2 degrees in the last 2 hours on 22 mph east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Would be a fun night for a hike to the top! Dropped 2 degrees in the last 2 hours on 22 mph east winds. The biggest gradient i have ever seen over 300' was Dec 92 when i drove to go sled at Diamond Hill RI, literally 20 inches of absolute cement at 400' , few inches at 100' couple miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Think this is mostly a disappointment outside of highly elevated areas, and N. Mass and VT and NH/ME Ofcourse if the cold wins out it's a different story, but if not alot of us could be real close to the magic number, but just be raining like many times in events like these. It was snowing on my way into work this morning(that was a bit surprising), but not anything since. Expectations on this are low, so any surprises in a positive way will be appreciated..but thinking mostly a cold cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 HRRR looks good for those with a sleet fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, DomNH said: True and it's probably just noise anyway. I'll feel pretty good if we're snowing at 0z. That's a very good benchmark...if you see a lot of snow obs between 00z-03z, then it means guidance with the warmer 750-800mb warm tongue (like the NAM) is probably busting. Might need to wait closer to 03z to see because we may still have very shallow/crappy lift at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It's been snowing all day here in Leominster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all ..Ryan has 1-2" of Sleet 84 N and W..Some of the meso stuff has some good ice accretion and Tippy was favoring ice as well...CAD is strong with this one..we'll see Yea, Im going with them on it so I wouldnt sweat every micro detail. Just funny when Will or Scott put their thoughts out including zones, you will follow with the "how much for philly" post. I know though, we can be the forgotten state at times unless its a CT special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a very good benchmark...if you see a lot of snow obs between 00z-03z, then it means guidance with the warmer 750-800mb warm tongue (like the NAM) is probably busting. Might need to wait closer to 03z to see because we may still have very shallow/crappy lift at 00z. Yeah the NAM is like +1C at 750mb at 3z (MHT) so if we're pounding aggregates at that point we are probably in decent shape. If it's sleet under good lift by then turn out the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Weird Euro run...warmer at 18h but colder at 24h than previous runs...it looks like maybe dynamics are a bit weaker at 18h so that is likely the cause...system maybe a little slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sfc over interior is colder...might need to worry about some ZR if the elevated warm layer gets too big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Thats a lot more qpf up here on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Weird Euro run...warmer at 18h but colder at 24h than previous runs...it looks like maybe dynamics are a bit weaker at 18h so that is likely the cause...system maybe a little slower too. ML's or surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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