Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS looked a hair warmer aloft..but still close to a sizeable snow nrn MA and SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 This one is as tough as they come to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looked a hair warmer aloft..but still close to a sizeable snow nrn MA and SNH. UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: UGH. Indeed The trend of yesterday has stopped but 850's look Good to me Also looks like it gets lift in here slightly faster tonite between 10pm and 6am something very heavy is falling from sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 New GFS still rips parachutes at ASH til like 12-13z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Indeed The trend of yesterday has stopped but 850's look Good to me Also looks like it gets lift in here slightly faster tonite between 10pm and 6am something very heavy is falling from sky WHY UGH? SNOW NORTHERN MASS/S.NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Still much colder than the NAM though. Its essentially a snow sounding through 12z at MHT. Still really washing out that warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: UGH. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxsnd.cgi?id=KLWM&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=skewt&ft=h18&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480&size=web looks good at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxsnd.cgi?id=KLWM&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=skewt&ft=h18&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480&size=web looks good at 6z Most falls after that until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hopefully models bust cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Euro/GFS blend for SLP and MLVL track. Mesos I think are lost, and are clouding an already-difficult forecast. Take the under with surface temps in good CAD locations. Precip comes in like a wall and lift/rates should be enough to keep marginal areas snow, for the initial surge. Beyond the dump 3-6hr dump, I think precip is largely scattered and doesn't amount to much. This forecast is all about the initial surge, which will be impressive imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 scrolling thru PYM State soundings You can see how mid levels were a snow bomb for LWM (on 6z GFS) now .......maybe to 3am or so then a bit too much warmth aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The other thing I notice is that we're saturated to like 250mb once the good lift comes in so if we can get good consistent omega throughout most of this I think we snow NW of 495 for a while. Any funky dry layers or subsidence shows up and forget it - a lot like the last storm when this area was on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Little bit off topic but it's great to have CPick posting again. He adds a lot to the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, mreaves said: Little bit off topic but it's great to have CPick posting again. He adds a lot to the conversation. That is debatable but thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Not sure why some are claiming temps are following...look as though they are rising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 We don't wanna see the ML Lows stretching more NW as we get in closer in the 495 Belt, i'm honestly aggravated by this Trend and the accompanying ML warming trends, soooo much LIFT over NE MASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure why some are claiming temps are following...look as though they are rising to me. Looking back at data earlier today for my hood. I had SE and E winds up until 6am then turned NE from there. 40F at 1am, 35F at 8am. It hasnt dropped since though so maybe that is where the confusion is. I didnt mean to insinuate earlier that temps will continue to fall, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Aircraft soundings are real cold in that 860mb layer. You only need to get to 1K to hit 32 near Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit. I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems. For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 was interesting to me that KFIT is warmer aloft than KLWM at 6z and 12z on last cpl runs of gfs unless the sounding factors in? better forcing and thus dynamic cooling over this area overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit. I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems. For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential. If the precip came in now, it would be a paste job. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: was interesting to me that KFIT is warmer aloft than KLWM at 6z and 12z on last cpl runs of gfs unless the sounding factors in? better forcing and thus dynamic cooling over this area overnite. It's because the GFS is trying to put a sucker hole over them on the lift...who knows if that ends up accurate or not though. Other guidance isn't doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit. I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems. For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential. Is this really a slow system though? Precip starts this evening and from everything I've seen this morning the heavy stuff is over first thing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's because the GFS is trying to put a sucker hole over them on the lift...who knows if that ends up accurate or not though. Other guidance isn't doing that. that's what i thought Looks like KLWM verbatim would be good thru 9z takes 8H to .8/.7 T/DP at 12z looks very close still from 10pm to 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: that's what i thought Looks like KLWM verbatim would be good thru 9z takes 8H to .8/.7 T/DP at 12z looks very close still I'd feel a lot better about a little snow bomb if we were just 1C colder than guidance has right now. This feels like a lot of sleet with occasional pounding aggregates when it gets really heavy...but never truly ripping pure snow very long and struggling to keep the lift strong enough. We may still end up colder...guidance could easily be trying to advect the warm tongue in too aggressively given the high placement...I mean, we still have a closed anti-cyclone in the mid-levels north of Maine this evening, so we'll see how it goes. But it would be a much easier call if everything was printing out about 1C colder in the profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snowbelt said: Is this really a slow system though? Precip starts this evening and from everything I've seen this morning the heavy stuff is over first thing tomorrow. Eastern areas keep going at least moderately all day tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm going to assume that whatever people are saying for ORH is the same for GC. Hopefully our better long/lat can put us in a smidge better position. Sitting at 29.9* at the Pit; 30.7* in the Midcoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit. I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems. For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential. We finally get our pivot point up this way...would be a nice 1-2 footer if it was 22F through the column haha. Still liking to take my chances with a QPF bomb and marginal temps. The 12z GFS looks pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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