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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Euro/GFS blend for SLP and MLVL track. 

Mesos I think are lost, and are clouding an already-difficult forecast. Take the under with surface temps in good CAD locations.

Precip comes in like a wall and lift/rates should be enough to keep marginal areas snow, for the initial surge. Beyond the dump 3-6hr dump, I think precip is largely scattered and doesn't amount to much. This forecast is all about the initial surge, which will be impressive imo.

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The other thing I notice is that we're saturated to like 250mb once the good lift comes in so if we can get good consistent omega throughout most of this I think we snow NW of 495 for a while. Any funky dry layers or subsidence shows up and forget it - a lot like the last storm when this area was on the edge. 

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure why some are claiming temps are following...look as though they are rising to me.

Looking back at data earlier today for my hood. I had SE and E winds up until 6am then turned NE from there. 40F at 1am, 35F at 8am. It hasnt dropped since though so maybe that is where the confusion is. I didnt mean to insinuate earlier that temps will continue to fall, my bad.

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Just now, weathafella said:

The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit.   I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems.   For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential.

If the precip came in now, it would be a paste job. Too bad.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

was interesting to me that KFIT is warmer aloft than KLWM at 6z and 12z  on last cpl runs of gfs 

unless the sounding factors in? better forcing and thus  dynamic cooling over this area overnite.

It's because the GFS is trying to put a sucker hole over them on the lift...who knows if that ends up accurate or not though. Other guidance isn't doing that.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit.   I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems.   For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential.

Is this really a slow system though? Precip starts this evening and from everything I've seen this morning the heavy stuff is over first thing tomorrow. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's because the GFS is trying to put a sucker hole over them on the lift...who knows if that ends up accurate or not though. Other guidance isn't doing that.

that's what i thought

Looks like KLWM verbatim would be good thru 9z 

takes 8H to .8/.7 T/DP at 12z 

looks very close still from 10pm to 5am

 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

that's what i thought

Looks like KLWM verbatim would be good thru 9z 

takes 8H to .8/.7 T/DP at 12z 

looks very close still

 

I'd feel a lot better about a little snow bomb if we were just 1C colder than guidance has right now. This feels like a lot of sleet with occasional pounding aggregates when it gets really heavy...but never truly ripping pure snow very long and struggling to keep the lift strong enough.

We may still end up colder...guidance could easily be trying to advect the warm tongue in too aggressively given the high placement...I mean, we still have a closed anti-cyclone in the mid-levels north of Maine this evening, so we'll see how it goes. But it would be a much easier call if everything was printing out about 1C colder in the profile.

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9 minutes ago, Snowbelt said:

Is this really a slow system though? Precip starts this evening and from everything I've seen this morning the heavy stuff is over first thing tomorrow. 

Eastern areas keep going at least moderately all day tomorrow into tomorrow evening.

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24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thought of this system with a climo antecedent vs now makes me want the vomit.   I have a theory that in most winters you get 3 chances of crawling wound up systems.   For much of sne, this one wasted a lot of potential.

We finally get our pivot point up this way...would be a nice 1-2 footer if it was 22F through the column haha.

Still liking to take my chances with a QPF bomb and marginal temps.  

The 12z GFS looks pretty damn good.

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