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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is honestly a hideous forecast. The GFS stalls the 850 warm front over SE MA which is as far SE as I've seen it so far...others are a bit NW but have been trending SE. So I wouldn't be shocked if you were pounding aggregates for several hours being on the NW edge of the sloped front. So much will depend on the lift.

It could also be cat paws and mixed pellets for several hours with no accumulation and then 1-2 inches of rain.  

 

This is the toughest forecast ever for me, I think.....obviously not the track record that seasoned pros like you have, so a smaller sample...but this is hideous.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Best case that sounds like 5-8" over 4-6 hours?

Yeah if everything went right, it could be a surprise 6 hour snow bomb with like 1-2" per hour aggregates at times. I obviously wouldn't forecast that...very little accumulation at all is still more likely...but it's not an impossible solution any longer like it might have been if this hadn't trended at all from 36 hours ago. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if everything went right, it could be a surprise 6 hour snow bomb with like 1-2" per hour aggregates at times. I obviously wouldn't forecast that...very little accumulation at all is still more likely...but it's not an impossible solution any longer like it might have been if this hadn't trended at all from 36 hours ago. 

Reminds me a bit of the second system in the Dec 1996 double-barrel events-

Not an analog, but...

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep so many examples 

Yep.  Already prepared for lower precip and definitely winds, however, I will say the mesos aren't depicting as much of a shadow here as I thought on some of their qpf output.  The Rgem actually has a nice heavier band around here and the Euro has had it off and on.  

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43 minutes ago, Digityman said:

What are you thinking at this point for our area?  4-8 snow,  inch or two of sleet than over to rain (maybe by me moreso) 

If anyone has any information on lower Central VT ski areas (killington, Okemo, etc) potential snowfall amounts to share please, that would be appreciated. :) 

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1 hour ago, Digityman said:

What are you thinking at this point for our area?  4-8 snow,  inch or two of sleet than over to rain (maybe by me moreso) 

Yeah, 4-8" southern and central areas, 8-12" NW Maine and the County, Some sleet mixed in south and central with some zr away from the coast back to the foothills and a change to rain along the coast right now.

 

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, 4-8" southern and central areas, 8-12" NW Maine and the County, Some sleet mixed in south and central with some zr away from the coast back to the foothills and a change to rain along the coast right now.

 

you think that much? Todd Gutner had 3-6" and looking at the timing of transition from snow to sleet looked to only be a few hours at best. Nit sure what model he was using, but I didn't get the sense this was borderline warning event except for mtns and NW.

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31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did 0z Euro have a more pronounced warm nose in mid levels in comparsion with 12 Euro data. Seems like Ray and Will touched on 925 temps but 750-825 is what i'm interested in from 4z to 11z tonite

for Say NW CT NE to LWM

anyone have those charts that Ryan posted yesterday, they were very informative

Lawrence

KLWM_2017012300_xt_240.png

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Thank you Steve

would you happen to have yesterday's 12z for LWM ( so i can compare) just trying to see if that warm nose is more pronounced last nite

Please and Thanks

Just took the Ridge Back out for AM Jog, this dog can not be tired out!

 

edit that looks like a sleet sounding to me by 6z, looks like that 750-825 layer is greater than 1c

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There is literally a model for every solution at this point. If you want snow you can find one with snow, if you want freezing rain you can find one with that, etc. Up here anyway it looks like there are no models showing rain to the mountains anymore.

12z raobs aren't even that enlightening. Models are too cold up here, but too warm in the Southeast where the mid level warmth is originating.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There is literally a model for every solution at this point. If you want snow you can find one with snow, if you want freezing rain you can find one with that, etc. Up here anyway it looks like there are no models showing rain to the mountains anymore.

12z raobs aren't even that enlightening. Models are too cold up here, but too warm in the Southeast where the mid level warmth is originating.

i want accuracy and trends

So i want Euro and to compare between 12z and 0z on mid level temps

is that a sleet sounding between 4z and 11z or could that be washed out

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12z nam went a bit north

Esp with 5h Low trajectory tommorrow. The difference between its 18z run yesterday and 12z today is sizeable with the 5H low trajectory from 6z to 18z tonite/tmrw

That is not ideal for limiting mid level warmth. 

18z's 5H low track looked like snow storm

This looks like sleet to rain FWIW.

And with euro trend of 5H low a bit north last nite i would think a tickle north at 12z is favored. I believe 6z gfs did as well

Ray don't know if you noticed that but it seems mid level low tracks slightly have tickled NW since 0z 

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24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thank you Steve

would you happen to have yesterday's 12z for LWM ( so i can compare) just trying to see if that warm nose is more pronounced last nite

Please and Thanks

Just took the Ridge Back out for AM Jog, this dog can not be tired out!

 

edit that looks like a sleet sounding to me by 6z, looks like that 750-825 layer is greater than 1c

Lol no they can't , no previous but here is a zoom at LL

KLWM_2017012300_xt_ll_240.png

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z nam went a bit north

Esp with 5h Low trajectory tommorrow. The difference between its 18z run yesterday and 12z today is sizeable with the 5H low trajectory from 6z to 18z tonite/tmrw

That is not ideal for limiting mid level warmth. 

18z's 5H low track looked like snow storm

This looks like sleet to rain FWIW.

And with euro trend of 5H low a bit north last nite i would think a tickle north at 12z is favored. I believe 6z gfs did as well

Ray don't know if you noticed that but it seems mid level low tracks slightly have tickled NW since 0z 

The EURO was so slight I would call it noise.

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

you think that much? Todd Gutner had 3-6" and looking at the timing of transition from snow to sleet looked to only be a few hours at best. Nit sure what model he was using, but I didn't get the sense this was borderline warning event except for mtns and NW.

Coast i can see 3-6" inland 4-8" lower side on both with more sleet and zr

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