WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was spot on for the last event. I meh'd it to death Lmao..that's some funny sh*t!! You're in a good spot for this as it stands now...if it ticks colder going forward-then you're gonna rock for sure!! This is gonna be night and day compared to that junk box the other night..I think we all can take that to the bank-even at this point(unless ofcourse it whiffs ots). Which is a big time outlier at the moment. Right now I think West is better as well(at least in SNE). But it could all be a dream by 0z, when the block moves out faster, and it cuts. Gotta be prepared for that as well(at least I am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I cautiously optimistic that Albany might cover the grass for the 1st time this season. Definitely an interesting setup to watch evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You don't mix out a warm layer that thick. That's way to thick and warm. I would recommend an overall cooler look. Yeah that is way too mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a 100mb layer of 2-3C. Would that be an ice signal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 With only extremely amateur meteorological skills, but 10 years of living in Greenfield, I can tell this looks to be a significant event here as currently modeled. Sure, models could take a big shift in the next 24 hours but the trend looks to be a pretty big winter event for the interior. This little corner of NW MA has had consistent snow cover since the beginning of December and experience tells me that might continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would that be an ice signal ? You're just begging for one met to tell you Tolland has a shot at icing and no one is biting. It's been cute to watch all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 the chance of this "cutting" or "whiffing" is close to zero. the bigger concern is an early occluded mess where the interior deform band looks great for a bit then it lifts north and unravels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking this will wind up being a warmer, wetter, windier version of Tuesday's event Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Yup. But the trends are clearly colder and snowier so what are you basing your comment on? Rubish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: But the trends are clearly colder and snowier so what are you basing your comment on? Rubish? 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 56 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah that is way too mild. Apparently the modelers in Europe disagree. You have to look at UVVS, timing and depth at the time not after lift has left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: the chance of this "cutting" or "whiffing" is close to zero. the bigger concern is an early occluded mess where the interior deform band looks great for a bit then it lifts north and unravels. Yup, great post. Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday seems to be evolving on the models. We are due in WNE, you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Given the poor air mass, everything has to come together just right for a significant snowfall in the lower elevations to the south of the Pike, and especially the coastal regions where It seems like a rather low probability. I would feel cautiously optimistic in Northern ORH and especially the Berks. Keeping expectations reasonable at this lead, perhaps a bit of a front end burst and a bit of a changeover at the end with an inch or two here in the valley but I'm certainly not ruling out a bigger impact just recognizing it is a low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Apparently the modelers in Europe disagree. You have to look at UVVS, timing and depth at the time not after lift has left. It's coming and will be wintery, the winners and losers to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Apparently the modelers in Europe disagree. You have to look at UVVS, timing and depth at the time not after lift has left. Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Yeah that is way too mild. Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift. Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 For better or for worse I'm locked in on this one. I'll have this system on long term the next two days, then follow it into the short term Monday and Tuesday. Will be hard to give it up Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For better or for worse I'm locked in on this one. I'll have this system on long term the next two days, then follow it into the short term Monday and Tuesday. Will be hard to it up Sunday. Nice, Then the peeps can blame you if it goes bad................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For better or for worse I'm locked in on this one. I'll have this system on long term the next two days, then follow it into the short term Monday and Tuesday. Will be hard to give it up Sunday. Did you see the 1920 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift. Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling. Guess Dendrite is screwed too then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For better or for worse I'm locked in on this one. I'll have this system on long term the next two days, then follow it into the short term Monday and Tuesday. Will be hard to give it up Sunday. Congrats on the ice storm, test the Genny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Did you see the 1920 map I did, thanks. 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Guess Dendrite is screwed too then. And that's assuming that x-sect is correct. We could still forecast warmer or colder trends, but verbatim that plot was a tough ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Quick glance at the NAM... looks a bit warmer than 18z at the end of the run.... not worth much... but to me, it looked slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Nam is a way different evolution from 18z which is shocking, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: You're just begging for one met to tell you Tolland has a shot at icing and no one is biting. It's been cute to watch all day. LOL. I'm refusing to get sucked into any systems before 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, great post. Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday seems to be evolving on the models. We are due in WNE, you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. Majority of zones west of 91 in the region are due but I know my climo, Im about 25 miles south of the 70"+ snowfall avg and 25 miles north of the 30" avg. Which basically puts me on the fringe of almost every single snowstorm lol. Always living on the edge here, Ive gone numb to it. But Systems like these have been lacking since 2011, even though I wont cash in this time I enjoy them. Hopefully, though, this doesnt "open up" too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nice, Then the peeps can blame you if it goes bad................ Yup, duly noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL. I'm refusing to get sucked into any systems before 48 hours out. I think your area has as good a shot as anyone in SNE. Given how marginal the setup is, I think that's a good approach though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Quick glance at the NAM... looks a bit warmer than 18z at the end of the run.... not worth much... but to me, it looked slightly warmer Wagons north congrats PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is a way different evolution from 18z which is shocking, I know. 18z GFS and now 00z NAM have sucked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.