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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was spot on for the last event.  I meh'd it to death

Lmao..that's some funny sh*t!! 

 

You're in a good spot for this as it stands now...if it ticks colder going forward-then you're gonna rock for sure!! 

This is gonna be night and day compared to that junk box the other night..I think we all can take that to the bank-even at this point(unless ofcourse it whiffs ots). Which is a big time outlier at the moment.

 

Right now I think West is better as well(at least in SNE).  But it could all be a dream by 0z, when the block moves out faster, and it cuts.   Gotta be prepared for that as well(at least I am). 

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 With only extremely amateur meteorological skills, but 10 years of living in  Greenfield, I can tell this looks to be a  significant event here as currently modeled. 

 Sure, models could take a big shift  in the next  24 hours but the trend looks to be a pretty big winter event for the interior. 

 This little corner of NW MA  has had consistent snow cover since the beginning of December and experience tells me that might continue.

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31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

the chance of this "cutting" or "whiffing" is close to zero. the bigger concern is an early occluded mess where the interior deform band looks great for a bit then it lifts north and unravels. 

Yup, great post.  Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday  seems to be evolving on the models.

 We are due in WNE,  you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. 

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Given the poor air mass, everything has to come together just right for a significant snowfall in the lower elevations to the south of the Pike,  and especially the coastal regions where It seems like a rather low probability.  I would feel cautiously optimistic in Northern ORH and especially the Berks.  Keeping expectations reasonable at this lead, perhaps a bit of a front end burst and a bit of a changeover at the end with an inch or two here in the valley but I'm certainly not ruling out a bigger impact just recognizing it is a low probability. 

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that is way too mild. 

Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. 

Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift.

Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For better or for worse I'm locked in on this one. I'll have this system on long term the next two days, then follow it into the short term Monday and Tuesday. Will be hard to it up Sunday.

Nice, Then the peeps can blame you if it goes bad................;)

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. 

Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift.

Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling.

Guess Dendrite is screwed too then. 

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44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup, great post.  Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday  seems to be evolving on the models.

 We are due in WNE,  you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. 

Majority of zones west of 91 in the region are due but I know my climo, Im about 25 miles south of the 70"+ snowfall avg and 25 miles north of the 30" avg. Which basically puts me on the fringe of almost every single snowstorm lol. Always living on the edge here, Ive gone numb to it. But Systems like these have been lacking since 2011, even though I wont cash in this time I enjoy them. Hopefully, though, this doesnt "open up" too soon. 

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